Closing Recap (Week Ending October 31) 

U.S. stocks capped another strong week with fresh record highs for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq, fueled by a dovish Federal Reserve rate cut and a significant de-escalation in US-China trade tensions following a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. In currency markets, the US Dollar rallied on a ‘hawkish cut’ from the Fed, with EUR/USD slipping to a three-month low, GBP/USD hitting a seven-month low, and USD/JPY surging on policy divergence. Gold fell sharply for the week, oil was mixed, and Bitcoin posted a monthly loss after reaching a new all-time high of $126,200 during the same month.

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks Hit New Record Highs: Major indices rallied to all-time highs, closing out a sixth straight positive month for the S&P 500, driven by a Fed rate cut and easing US-China trade tensions. 
• Currency Pairs React to “Hawkish” Fed Cut: The US Dollar strengthened significantly after the Fed cut rates but signaled a higher bar for future easing; EUR/USD fell to a 3-month low of 1.1536, GBP/USD hit a 7-month low near 1.3097, and USD/JPY surged 4.11% in October. 
• Fed Cuts Rates but Signals Caution: The Fed delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut but Chair Powell’s cautious tone poured cold water on expectations for another cut in December, causing rate cut probabilities to fall from 90% to 62%. 
• Blockbuster Earnings Support Rally: A massive week of earnings saw strong beats from tech giants like Google and Amazon, helping to offset a notable drop in Meta and confirming that corporate profits remain a strong pillar for the market.
• US-China Trade Tensions De-escalate: A meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi resulted in mutual concessions, with the US holding off on 100% tariffs and both sides suspending port fees, lowering overall tariff rates. 
• Gold Tumbles, Snaps Win Streak: Gold prices fell over 3% for the week, snapping a nine-week winning streak, as the stronger dollar and improved risk appetite dented safe-haven demand. 
• Bitcoin Ends “Uptober” Streak: Bitcoin fell roughly -5% in October, snapping a seven-year streak of gains for the month, though it bounced back towards $110,000 on Friday. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Central Bank Bonanza: The upcoming week is packed with policy decisions from the RBA (Tue), Riksbank (Wed), and BoE (Thu). 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key US Data: With the government shutdown over (implied by data releases), US ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and Services (Wed) PMIs will be crucial. 

Looking Ahead

After a landmark week featuring a Federal Reserve rate cut and a significant US-China trade de-escalation, the market enters a new month with a packed calendar. November is historically the best month of the year for stocks, and the focus will be on whether the recent bullish momentum can be sustained. Looking ahead, the market faces a packed calendar of central bank decisions and key economic data that will test the post-Fed narrative. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday are the main G10 central bank events. In the US, with the government shutdown seemingly over, the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Services (Wednesday) PMIs will be of paramount importance for gauging the health of the economy.

Other key events include a US Supreme Court hearing on Wednesday regarding the legality of Trump’s tariff policy and a budget vote in the French Assembly on Tuesday that poses political risk for the Eurozone. An OPEC-8 meeting on Sunday will also set the tone for oil markets to start the week. Any fresh headlines on trade, particularly regarding the US-Canada relationship, and political developments in France will also be closely watched.

Market Overview

The U.S. stock market’s incredible run continued this week, with major averages posting another round of gains and closing out a sixth consecutive positive month for the S&P 500. Stocks remain close to all-time highs, propelled by two major catalysts: a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve and a significant de-escalation in the US-China trade war. A highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping resulted in a series of mutual concessions, including the U.S. holding off on threatened 100% tariffs and a reduction in overall tariff rates. This, combined with a strong Q3 earnings season where many of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants reported beats, has kept the bullish momentum alive. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)	Monthly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	47562	40.57	0.0009	0.0075	0.0251
S&P 500	6840	17.91	0.0026	0.0071	0.0227
Nasdaq	23724	143.81	0.0061	0.0224	0.047
Russell 2000	2479	13.43	0.0054	-0.0132	0.0192

However, the Fed’s move was a “hawkish cut.” While the 25bps reduction was expected, Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent comments warned that a December rate cut is “not a guarantee,” causing markets to sharply dial back expectations for further easing. This cautious tone, echoed by other Fed officials, provided a powerful boost to the U.S. dollar. In the crypto space, Bitcoin had a rough month, snapping a seven-year streak of gains for “Uptober” with a loss of roughly 5%, though it saw a bounce on Friday back towards $110,000.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of November 3rd)

SUN (Nov 2): 

• US Daylight Saving Time Ends: Clocks turn back one hour. 
• OPEC-8 Meeting: Discussion on a potential modest output increase for December.

MON (Nov 3): 

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct): A critical gauge of the factory sector’s health and the most important U.S. data point of the week in the absence of government releases. 
• Swiss CPI (Oct): An important inflation read for the Swiss National Bank. 
• EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Oct): Final reads on factory activity.
• US Treasury Quarterly Refinancing Estimates: Details on US borrowing needs

TUE (Nov 4): 

• RBA Policy Announcement & Statement on Monetary Policy: After recent hot inflation data, the market now unanimously expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rates, making the forward guidance in the statement critical for the Aussie dollar. 
• French Assembly Budget Vote: Key political risk event for France.

WED (Nov 5): 

• US ISM Services PMI (Oct): The second crucial U.S. data point, providing insight into the much larger services side of the economy. 
• Riksbank & BCB Policy Announcements: Sweden and Brazil’s central banks deliver their latest interest rate decisions. 
• US Supreme Court Tariff Hearing: The court will hear arguments in a case challenging the legality of President Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy. 
• EZ/UK/US Final Services & Composite PMIs (Oct): Final reads on service sector activity.
• US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement: Details on auction sizes.

THU (Nov 6):

• BoE Policy Announcement and Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of England’s rate decision is a close call, with markets pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of a cut. The vote split and new economic forecasts will be key for the British Pound. 
• Norges Bank Policy Announcement: Norway’s central bank announces its rate decision. 

FRI (Nov 7): 

• Canadian Jobs Report (Oct): A top-tier data release that will be watched to see if the Canadian labor market is faring amid trade tensions. 
• Chinese Trade Balance (Oct): Provides the latest read on China’s import and export activity.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold posted a third straight monthly gain but December gold prices fell over 3% for the week, snapping a nine-week winning streak to settle at $3,996.50/oz. The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking after the metal hit a record high earlier in the month, as the Fed’s “hawkish cut” dented some enthusiasm for the non-yielding asset. Crude oil prices (WTI) were volatile but ended the week with gains. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	60.98	0.41	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	65.07	0.07	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3996.5	-19.4	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1525	-0.004	Rate
USD/JPY	154.03	-0.09	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04095	0.00002	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	110,000	$1,285	USD

The currency market was dominated by a powerful U.S. Dollar rally, fueled by a pronounced policy divergence between a hawkish-sounding Fed and other major central banks. 

• EUR/USD: The pair slid to a three-month low, finishing the week at 1.1536 for a monthly loss of 1.68%. The Euro was hammered by the widening policy gap after the Fed’s “hawkish cut” contrasted sharply with the ECB’s steady-rate stance, confirming the market’s view of U.S. economic outperformance. 
• GBP/USD: Sterling was hit hard, tumbling to a new seven-month low near 1.3097. The pair suffered its second consecutive month of losses, driven down by relentless U.S. Dollar strength and persistent investor concerns over the UK’s fragile fiscal outlook ahead of the November budget.
•  USD/JPY: The pair had a massive month, surging over 4% to close near 154.00. The Yen’s slide was driven by the powerful combination of rising U.S. yields after Powell’s comments and the return of “Abenomics 2.0” expectations under Prime Minister Takaichi. Japanese officials have begun verbal warnings, but the market is testing their resolve as the 155 level—a potential intervention tripwire—approaches.

U.S. Treasury yields rose for the week, with the 10-year yield up about 10bps and the 2-year yield up 11bps as markets priced out aggressive Fed easing.In contrast to the crypto market, Bitcoin had a month to forget. It snapped a seven-year streak of gains for October, finishing the month down roughly 5%. Despite a modest bounce into the weekend, the crypto market remains fragile after its recent flash crash. 

What to Watch Next Week: 

• ISM is the New NFP (Again): With the data blackout continuing, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday) and ISM Services PMI (Wednesday) will be the most heavily scrutinized U.S. economic reports. These surveys, particularly their prices paid and employment components, will be the market’s primary tool for gauging economic momentum and shaping Fed expectations for December. 
• Central Bank Divergence (BoE & RBA): This week brings two pivotal central bank meetings. The RBA (Tuesday) is now widely expected to hold rates after a hot CPI report, shifting all focus to Governor Bullock’s forward guidance. The BoE decision on Thursday is much less certain. While a hold is favored, the market is still pricing a significant chance of a cut, making it a major risk event that could spark significant volatility in the Pound Sterling. 
• The Political Overhang: The OPEC-8 meeting on Sunday will set the tone for oil prices to start the week. In the U.S., the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (Monday/Wednesday) will be watched for details on debt issuance, while the Supreme Court hearing on tariffs (Wednesday) is a unique background risk. Meanwhile, in France, a key Assembly budget vote on Tuesday could reignite political instability.