Closing Recap
The past week delivered a massive relief rally across global markets, driven primarily by a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The removal of immediate geopolitical supply chain fears sent WTI crude oil crashing roughly 15% for the week to settle near $96.57. Equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapping their losing streaks to climb 3.6% and 4.7% respectively, fueled by the “Mag 7” and strong TSMC data validating AI demand.
In another major catalyst, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, removing a significant headwind for the global economy. This cocktail of vanishing risk premiums triggered a heavy sell-off in the U.S. Dollar, which posted its largest weekly drop since January. The weaker dollar and lower rate expectations propelled the Euro and British Pound to strong weekly gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rallied 5% to break above $72,000, and Gold posted a 2.4% weekly gain, maintaining its bullish posture despite the cooling of geopolitical tensions.
Key Takeaways (The Week in 60 Seconds)
- Stocks Surge on Ceasefire Relief: U.S. equities posted sharp weekly gains as the geopolitical cloud lifted. The Nasdaq led the charge (+4.7%), while the S&P 500 (+3.6%) and Dow (+3.0%) both closed comfortably above their 100-day moving averages.
- Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs: In a landmark 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, stating he exceeded his authority under the 1977 emergency law. The ruling was a massive tailwind for global equities.
- Oil Crashes 15% as Hormuz Reopens: WTI Crude plummeted 16% on the initial ceasefire news before settling the week down 15% at $96.57 per barrel. The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz significantly eased fears of a global energy crisis.
- Gold’s Winning Streak: Gold advanced 2.4% for the week, closing at $4,787.40, marking its third consecutive positive week as a resilient inflation and geopolitical hedge.
- Silver Squeeze Setup: Silver surged 4.66% to $76.47. The 8 largest commercial traders (the “Big 8”) now hold their lowest short position in 17 years, removing major selling pressure just as physical Comex inventories drop to 77M ounces.
- U.S. Dollar Suffers Largest Drop Since January: The Greenback was aggressively sold off as safe-haven demand evaporated and tariff protections were struck down. The DXY briefly tumbled below the big psychological level 100.00.
- Euro & Pound Rally: The U.S. Dollar posted its largest weekly drop since January. The Euro (EUR/USD) climbed 1.79% to 1.1728 (5 consecutive up days), and the Pound (GBP/USD) jumped 2.02% to 1.3465.
- Yen Intervention Watch: USD/JPY closed slightly down for the week (-0.22%) at 159.28, remaining in a tight range just below the critical 160.00 intervention line as officials issue fresh warnings.
- Inflation Spikes on Lagging Energy Costs: March CPI jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, the largest increase since June 2022, entirely reflecting the recent oil shock. Despite the hot print, markets are betting the ceasefire will make this inflation surge temporary.
- Retail Panic Sold the Bottom: Retail investors sold stocks last week for the first time since Nov 2025 and bought a record $275M in put options between Mar 27-Apr 2, completely missing the massive 7-day melt-up.
- Bitcoin Climbs Past $72k: Crypto markets benefited from the risk-on environment, with Bitcoin rising nearly 5% for the week to reach $72,077, aided by the launch of Morgan Stanley’s new Bitcoin ETP.
- Week Ahead Focus: All eyes are on the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad this weekend, followed by the kickoff of Q1 Bank Earnings, US PPI data, and Chinese Q1 GDP.
Looking Ahead
The “vibe” for next week is “Fragile Peace vs. Earnings Reality.” The market is holding its breath as U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials meet in Islamabad this weekend. If these talks collapse, President Trump has explicitly threatened to resume strikes, which would instantly send oil back over $100 and likely crash equities.
If the ceasefire holds, the market’s focus will violently pivot from geopolitics back to fundamentals. We are entering the heart of Q1 Earnings Season, with major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo) reporting Monday and Tuesday. Wall Street expects 13.2% YoY earnings growth for the S&P 500 – the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Can corporate profits outrun stagflation?
Weekly Market Narrative: Peace Talks and Supreme Court Rulings Ignite a Melt-Up
Wall Street experienced a spectacular reversal of fortune this week. The dark clouds of a Middle East war and global trade wars parted almost simultaneously. The announcement of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan immediately crushed oil prices and relieved the stagflation fears that had paralyzed markets.
| Index | Last Closing Level | Daily Change | Daily Change % | Weekly Change % |
| DJ Industrials | 47,914 | -269.47 | -0.56% | +3.00% |
| S&P 500 | 6,817 | -7.84 | -0.10% | +3.60% |
| Nasdaq | 22,907 | +80.48 | +0.37% | +4.70% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,630 | -5.73 | -0.21% | Positive |
The bullish flames were fanned further on Friday when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs, ruling that only Congress holds core taxing authority. Although the S&P 500 took a slight breather on Friday to digest the hot March CPI data (which reflected the now-fading oil spike), the underlying momentum is overwhelmingly positive. The “Mag 7” accounted for roughly 45% of the S&P’s 7-day winning streak, proving that when macro fears subside, capital rushes right back into big tech.
- Sentiment: Bipolar. Institutional money aggressively bought the ceasefire dip, while retail investors panic-bought puts at the exact bottom. Consumer sentiment is at record lows due to gas prices.
- Central Banks: The hot March CPI data (3.3%) mathematically validates the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance. Despite the relief rally, BofA warns that if the oil shock resumes, the Fed’s next move could actually be a rate hike.
- Technicals: The S&P 500 (6,817) and Nasdaq (22,907) reclaimed their 100-day moving averages, flipping the short-term trend back to bullish, provided the geopolitical news flow cooperates.
Economic Data Calendar: April 13 – 17, 2026
A critical week defining the trajectory of U.S. corporate health and Chinese growth. The focus now shifts from macro shocks to corporate fundamentals. Q1 earnings season kicks off, and global markets will monitor the fragile peace negotiations in Pakistan.
- SAT/SUN (Apr 11-12): The Islamabad Peace Talks
- Event: U.S. VP JD Vance meets Iranian officials in Pakistan. A make-or-break moment for the Strait of Hormuz and global oil prices.
- Hungarian Election: A tight race between Orban and Magyar with implications for European unity and the Forint.
- MON (Apr 13): Bank Earnings Kickoff
- Earnings: Goldman Sachs (GS) reports, signaling the start of a season where 70% of the S&P 500 will report by month’s end (expected EPS growth of 13.2% YoY).
- Data: Chinese M2 Money Supply, US Existing Home Sales.
- TUE (Apr 14): Mega-Bank Earnings & Chinese Trade
- Earnings: JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK).
- Data: Chinese Balance of Trade (Mar), US PPI (Mar). Watch the PPI to see if pipeline inflation confirms the hot CPI print.
- US PPI (Mar): Producer prices will be watched to see if pipeline inflation remains sticky.
- Chinese Balance of Trade: Important check on global demand and Chinese export strength.
- WED (Apr 15): Fed Beige Book
- Event: Fed Beige Book. Will show real-time ground-level impacts of the recent oil shock on U.S. businesses.
- Data: EZ Industrial Production.
- THU (Apr 16): Chinese GDP & ECB Minutes
- Data: Chinese Q1 GDP (Expected 4.8% YoY), Chinese Industrial Production, UK GDP (Feb).
- Event: ECB Minutes. Markets will look for clues on whether the ECB will hike in April due to energy inflation.
- UK GDP (Feb) & Australian Jobs: Key domestic data for the Pound and Aussie Dollar.
- FRI (Apr 17): Quad Witching & PBoC
- Event: Quadruple Witching. Massive options expiration guarantees late-day volatility.
- Central Bank: PBoC LPR Decision (Expected to hold at 3.00%).
Asset Class Spotlight: Commodities, Currencies, Crypto & Treasuries
The geopolitical risk premium deflated rapidly, sending WTI Crude down roughly 15% for the week to settle at $96.57. However, the structural threat remains intact as the Strait of Hormuz is still functionally closed to shipping. BofA analysts suggest selling oil if it pops above $100, anticipating aggressive policy responses to curb economic damage. Precious Metals: A phenomenal week for the metals complex. Gold closed at $4,787.40 (+2.4% for the week), finishing positive for the third straight week as the ultimate stagflation hedge. Silver surged 4.66% to $76.47. The “Big 8” commercial banks have slashed their short positions to 17-year lows, removing a massive ceiling on silver prices.
| Asset | Price | Note |
| WTI Crude | $96.57 | Down ~12% Wk; Ceasefire cools prices, but Hormuz remains shut. |
| Brent Crude | ~$100.00 | Trading at a premium due to Middle East disruption. |
| Gold (June) | $4,787.40 | Up +2.4% Wk; 3rd straight positive week on stagflation fears. |
| Silver | $76.47 | Up +4.66% Wk; Commercial shorts at 17-year lows (Squeeze setup). |
| Bitcoin | $72,077 | Up ~5% Wk; Boosted by Morgan Stanley ETF launch. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1728 | Surge: +1.79% Wk; 5 straight up days on weak USD. |
| USD/JPY | 159.28 | Capped below 160 intervention zone; Market waiting on peace talks. |
| 10-Year Note | 4.284% | Yields remain elevated as March CPI hits 3.3%. |
The U.S. Dollar posted its largest weekly drop since January, falling as the ceasefire eased the “doom-loop” safe-haven bid. The Euro (+1.79% to 1.1728) and Pound (+2.02% to 1.3465) capitalized perfectly, stringing together 5 consecutive up days. The foreign exchange market was dominated by a sharp unwinding of the “Dollar Premium” as tariffs were struck down and geopolitical panic subsided. FX Breakdown
- USD/JPY: The pair closed modestly down for the second consecutive week at 159.28 (-0.22%), just below the critical 160.00 intervention line. The Yen is paralyzed; if the U.S.-Iran talks fail and oil spikes, Japan’s energy import bill will crush the currency, forcing the BoJ/MoF to step in. It remains confined in a tight trading range just below the critical 160.00 intervention threshold. While the softer Dollar provided relief, the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on policy continues to limit major Yen strength.
- EUR/USD: A perfect week for Euro bulls. The Euro bulls struck a “flush,” posting 5 consecutive up days to close the week at 1.1728 (+1.79%). The ceasefire removed the immediate threat of a European energy crisis, allowing the Euro to rally against a softening Dollar.
- GBP/USD: Sterling mirrored the Euro’s success, logging 5 consecutive bullish days to close up +2.02% at 1.3465, its biggest weekly gain in 11 weeks. Markets are pricing in 42bps of BoE hikes by year-end, giving Sterling a massive yield advantage as inflation fears persist.
Crypto: Bitcoin defied the hot CPI data, climbing 5% for the week to $72,077. The launch of Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) is opening the asset class to a massive new pool of wealth management capital, offsetting $163.5M in ETF outflows seen mid-week.
What to Watch Next Week
- The Islamabad Peace Talks (Weekend Binary Event): The U.S. (VP Vance) and Iran are meeting in Pakistan this weekend. This is a binary outcome for Monday’s open.
- Success (Strait of Hormuz Opens): Oil crashes below $90, Equities gap up, Dollar falls.
- Failure (Trump Resumes Strikes): Oil explodes past $105, Equities gap down, Dollar rips, Gold/Bitcoin surge.
- Earnings Season Begins: Q2 earnings kick off with the major banks. With the S&P 500 back near record highs and multiple expansion accounting for most of the gains, corporations must deliver on the 13.2% expected EPS growth. Forward guidance regarding supply chain costs and AI capital expenditures will be heavily scrutinized.
- Tuesday’s U.S. PPI Data: Following the hot CPI print, Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is critical. If wholesale inflation is also surging, it confirms that the oil shock has fully penetrated the supply chain, complicating the Fed’s trajectory for incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
- The Silver Short Squeeze Setup: With Commercial shorts at a 17-year low and Comex inventories draining (77M oz), Silver ($76.47) is a coiled spring. If the macro environment remains risk-on, or if inflation fears persist, watch for Silver to aggressively test the $80 resistance band next week.