Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a cautious start for the new week after a volatile stretch that saw the end of the record-long government shutdown and a sharp sell-off in equities. The “sell the news” reaction on Thursday wiped out a significant portion of the week’s gains, with the Dow falling 800 points. The main focus for investors now shifts from political gridlock to economic reality, with a backlog of key data set to be released, starting with the delayed September jobs report on Thursday. 

The U.S. dollar is starting the week with a modest bid, while the Japanese yen is under pressure after weak GDP data and a new push for massive fiscal stimulus. The most dramatic move over the weekend was in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low, briefly erasing all of its year-to-date gains. 

Key Takeaways 

• Markets Brace for Data Deluge: With the government shutdown over, investors are anxiously awaiting a backlog of economic data, including the delayed September NFP report on Thursday, which will provide the first real look at the U.S. economy in weeks. 
• Tech Under Scrutiny: After last week’s tech-led sell-off, all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings this Wednesday, which is being viewed as a crucial “truth serum” for the entire AI sector. 
• Delayed September NFP Report Looms: The long-awaited September jobs report is finally scheduled for release this Thursday, providing the market’s first official look at the U.S. labor market in nearly two months.
• Bitcoin Plunges to 6-Month Low Amid “Death Cross”: The cryptocurrency market remains in a deep bear market. Bitcoin has fallen to a new six-month low below $94,000, wiping out all of its year-to-date gains, with a bearish “death cross” technical pattern now signaling the potential for further downside.
• Fed Rate Cut Hopes Wane: The probability of a December rate cut has fallen sharply to around 40% from over 60% last week, providing a tailwind for the U.S. dollar. 
• Dollar Firms as Fed Rate Cut Bets Wane: The U.S. Dollar is firming, with the DXY index climbing back towards 99.50 as the market continues to pare back expectations for a December rate cut, with odds now below 40%.
• Yen Pressured by Weak GDP and Stimulus Push: The Japanese yen is underperforming after Q3 GDP contracted and the government signaled a massive new ¥17 trillion stimulus package, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance. 
• Japan to Unveil Massive Stimulus Package: Japan’s new government is preparing a larger-than-expected ¥17 trillion stimulus package, a major development that reinforces the “Abenomics 2.0” narrative and is weighing on the Yen.
• Gold and Oil Retreat: Gold prices are pulling back as the dollar firms and rate cut bets recede. Oil is also lower after a key Russian port resumed operations, easing immediate supply fears. 

Market Overview

U.S. markets are starting the new week in a state of anxious anticipation after a volatile stretch. The primary driver of last week’s turmoil, the government shutdown, is now in the rearview mirror, but the market is still grappling with its hangover. The main issue is the massive backlog of economic data that is now set to be released. This “data deluge,” which kicks off with the delayed September jobs report on Thursday, will provide the first real look at the U.S. economy in over a month and could trigger significant volatility. The new trading week begins on a cautious note as the market digests the fallout from last week’s dramatic reversal.

The relief rally that followed the end of the government shutdown proved fleeting, replaced by a “sell the news” dynamic that saw investors lock in profits and refocus on fundamental concerns. The key question now is how the U.S. economy has weathered the 43-day shutdown. The upcoming release of delayed economic data, particularly the September jobs report, will be the first real test and could set the market’s tone for the remainder of the year. 

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-309.74	-0.0065	47147.48
S&P 500	-3.38	-0.0005	6734.11
Nasdaq	30.23	0.0013	22900.59
Russell 2000	5.24	0.0022	2388.23

The technology sector remains a major focal point. While Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of a new stake in Alphabet provided some weekend encouragement, broader concerns about stretched valuations persist. This makes Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday a critical event, not just for the company, but for the entire AI-driven market narrative. Meanwhile, international developments are also shaping sentiment. In Japan, the economy has officially contracted, and the government’s response is a massive new stimulus package, a move that is likely to keep the yen under pressure. This highlights a growing policy divergence that could continue to favor the U.S. dollar, especially as hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut continue to fade.

Economic Calendar 

With the U.S. government now reopened, the market is awaiting a new schedule for the release of delayed economic data. Today’s calendar is light on fresh U.S. data, with the focus on international releases and central bank commentary. Data Released Earlier / Overnight: 

• Japan Q3 Preliminary GDP: Contracted by an annualized -1.8%, milder than the -2.4% forecast but still the first decline in six quarters, weakening the case for a near-term BoJ rate hike. 
• Japan Final Industrial Production (Sep): Revised higher to +2.6% m/m, showing some underlying strength in the factory sector before the Q3 slowdown. 

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: Swiss Q3 GDP and final Italian CPI, both considered low-impact releases. 
• U.S. / North American Session: The main highlight is the Canadian CPI report. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures will be closely watched, but the data is unlikely to alter the central bank’s current on-hold stance. 
• Major Risk Events This Week: Nvidia Earnings (Wednesday): A critical event for the tech sector and the broader AI market narrative. 
• Delayed U.S. September NFP (Thursday): The first major official data release since the shutdown ended. The market will be scrutinizing the report for signs of labor market weakness. 
• A very heavy slate of central bank speakers from the Fed (Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari, Waller), ECB (de Guindos, Lane, Cipollone), and BoE (Mann).
• Fed Speakers: A packed schedule of Fed officials (Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari, Waller) will be speaking throughout the week. 

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

The story in commodities has been the pullback in Gold. Gold prices are on the back foot, with spot gold falling 0.6% to around $4,053 an ounce. The retreat is being driven by a firmer U.S. dollar and the sharp decline in market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Crude oil prices are also lower, with WTI slipping 1% to below $59.50 a barrel after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, easing the immediate supply concerns that had caused a spike on Friday.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.68	-0.0113	59.41
Gold	-20.8	-0.0051	4073.4
EUR/USD	-0.0009	-0.0008	1.1612
USD/JPY	0.23	0.0015	154.77
Bitcoin	1311	0.0139	95392
10-Year Note Yield	-0.005	-0.0012	0.04142

The U.S. dollar is starting the week on a firmer footing as Fed rate cut bets recede, while the yen is the notable underperformer. 

• EUR/USD: The pair is trading with a negative bias, slipping back towards the 1.1600 level as modest U.S. dollar strength returns. The technical picture remains bearish below the 50-day moving average. The pair is being pressured by the broad strength of the U.S. Dollar and a cautious European Central Bank. A large $1.1B options expiry at the 1.1700 level sits well above the current price.
• GBP/USD: The pound is softer near 1.3155, weighed down by concerns over the UK’s fiscal situation and growing expectations for a December rate cut from the Bank of England following last week’s weak data. 
• USD/JPY: The pair remains elevated, trading just below the key 155.00 psychological level. The pair is trading with a firm tone near 154.70. The Japanese Yen is being weighed down by the weak Q3 GDP data, which reinforces the pro-stimulus, “Sanaenomics” agenda of the incoming government and pushes back on the timeline for any BoJ tightening. A $530M options expiry at the 155.00 level provides a key resistance target. 

Cryptocurrencies: The biggest story is the renewed collapse in the crypto market. Bitcoin has formed a bearish “death cross” technical pattern and has fallen to a new six-month low below $94,000, completely erasing all of its year-to-date gains as Fed rate cut hopes fade.” The crypto market experienced a sharp sell-off over the weekend. Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low of $93,043, briefly erasing all of its year-to-date gains. The crash was fueled by fading hopes for Fed rate cuts and broader risk aversion. The price has since stabilized around the $95,000 level. 

U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the week’s key data releases. The benchmark 10-year yield is trading around 4.14%, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook. 

Looking Ahead 

This week marks a crucial transition for the market, moving from a focus on Washington politics to a renewed dependence on economic data. The release of the delayed September jobs report on Thursday will be the first major test. A significantly weaker-than-expected number could revive hopes for a Fed rate cut and weigh on the dollar, while a strong report could reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative and add to pressure on risk assets. Before that, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will be a make-or-break moment for the tech sector. A strong report could reignite the AI rally, but any disappointment could accelerate the recent slide.

What to Watch

• Nvidia’s Earnings “Truth Serum”: This week’s earnings report from Nvidia on Wednesday is a critical event for the entire market. It will act as a “truth serum” for the AI rally, and a disappointment could accelerate the recent sell-off in the tech sector. 
• The Data Deluge Begins: The release of the delayed September jobs report on Thursday will be the market’s first look at official U.S. employment data in over a month. Expect significant volatility as the market finally gets a clearer picture of the economy. 
• The Bitcoin Capitulation and the “Death Cross”: Bitcoin’s fall to a new six-month low and the formation of a “death cross” pattern is a major capitulation event. Traders will be watching to see if dip-buyers emerge or if the bearish technicals and waning institutional interest lead to a deeper sell-off. 
• Japan’s ¥17 Trillion Stimulus: The massive stimulus package expected to be approved on Friday is a significant new factor for Japanese markets. It reinforces the dovish policy narrative and could continue to weigh heavily on the Yen.