Closing Recap

Global markets are opening the week in a state of high anxiety, hammered by a chaotic weekend of trade policy whiplash. U.S. stock index futures are dropping hard – with the Nasdaq 100 shedding nearly 0.7% – after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping IEEPA tariffs, only for Trump to immediately retaliate by slapping a flat 15% global tariff on imports. This legal and economic ambiguity has crushed the U.S. Dollar and sparked a massive flight to safety. However, unlike last week, the safe-haven flows are working exactly as intended: Gold and Silver are surging, with Gold hitting three-week highs above $5,130 and on track for a historic 8th consecutive green month. Meanwhile, the crypto winter is deepening, as Bitcoin crashes below $66,000 amid relentless whale selling, completely decoupling from the precious metals rally.

Key Takeaways

• Trump Imposes New 15% Global Tariff: After the Supreme Court struck down his initial IEEPA-based tariffs, President Trump immediately announced a flat 15% global tariff, injecting massive uncertainty into global trade.
• U.S. Futures Slump on Trade Fears: Equity futures gapped lower on the reopen as investors weighed the potential economic impact of the new tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding potential refunds from the old ones.
• Dollar Broadly Sold: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped as the market reacted to the Supreme Court ruling and the new tariff announcement, pushing EUR/USD back above 1.18.
• Yen Surges on Hawkish BoJ Talk: The Japanese yen is outperforming, with USD/JPY falling sharply toward 154.00 after a former BoJ board member said a March rate hike is possible if yen weakness persists.
• Gold Hits 3-Week High: Ignore the noise—the metals bull market is fully intact. Gold jumped to $5,132, extending its winning streak on tariff jitters. Silver followed suit, rising to near $85.40 as the trade war premium drives relentless safe-haven demand.
• Crypto Crash Continues: Bitcoin fell sharply, dropping below $66,000 as the broader risk-off mood and talk of large liquidations exacerbated the downside momentum.
• Bitcoin’s 139-Day Death Spiral: Crypto is in serious trouble. Bitcoin has crashed 49%, wiping out $1.21 Trillion in market cap over the last 139 days with zero relief rallies. It is facing its longest losing streak since 2018 as whales dump onto exchanges.
• “Big Tech” Earnings in Focus: The market is bracing for a critical week of earnings, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple all set to report in the coming days.
• BofA’s “Sell Signal” Hits 20-Year High:The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator has reached 9.3—a 20-year high. Historically, this level of extreme euphoria precedes a median 3-month max drawdown of -5.5% for the S&P 500.
• Oil Eases on Iran Talks: Despite Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 Q4 Brent forecast to $60, crude opened lower (WTI $65.60) as traders weighed the resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva against tariff-driven demand headwinds.
• U.S. Stocks Off to Worst Start in 17 Years: The S&P 500 is flat for the year, significantly underperforming global equities in its worst start since the 2009 financial crisis.
• Goldman Upgrades 2026 Oil Forecast: Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts, citing tighter OECD inventories, though it still expects a surplus.
• Nvidia Earnings Overhang: Adding to the tariff anxiety is the looming Q4 earnings report from Nvidia on Wednesday. The entire AI narrative hangs in the balance.

Market Overview 

The new trading week has begun with a significant dose of policy shock and awe. The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s sweeping tariff regime was initially seen as a positive for global trade. However, Trump’s immediate and aggressive response- imposing a flat 15% global tariff – has dashed those hopes and thrown the market into a state of deep uncertainty. The legal and economic implications of this move are vast, particularly the unresolved question of whether the hundreds of billions of dollars collected under the old tariffs will need to be refunded. This level of policy ambiguity is a major headwind for risk assets. We are witnessing a profound shift in market psychology. The “Trump Trade” (Long US Equities, Long Dollar) is aggressively unwinding as the reality of a chaotic, litigation-heavy tariff regime sets in. The U.S. Dollar has lost its safe-haven status in this specific scenario, acting as a funding currency for a flight into hard assets (Gold/Silver) and the Japanese Yen.

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	(N/A)	–	49,018 (Futures)
S&P 500	-56.99	-0.0082	6,883.02 (Futures)
Nasdaq	-302	-0.0118	25,227 (Futures)
Russell 2000	24.46	0.0065	3,772.68 (Futures)

The reaction across asset classes has been swift. U.S. equity futures are pointing to a weak open, the U.S. dollar is being sold off, and traditional safe havens like gold and the Japanese yen are catching strong bids. The yen’s strength is being further supported by hawkish chatter from former BoJ officials suggesting a rate hike could come as soon as March if currency weakness persists. This adds another layer of complexity for global markets, as the potential end of the era of cheap yen funding looms. With a critical slate of “Big Tech” earnings on tap this week, including the all-important Nvidia report, and investor positioning flashing extreme “sell signals” according to Bank of America, traders should be prepared for a highly volatile and potentially treacherous trading week.

Economic Calendar

Today’s session is likely to be driven by market positioning and the ongoing reaction to the weekend’s tariff news.

Data Released Earlier / Overnight:

• There were no major economic data releases during the Asian session.
• Global Weekend News: SCOTUS Tariff Block & Trump 15% Hike.

Today’s Economic Calendar:

• European Session: German IFO Business Climate survey.
• U.S. Session:
• 13:00 GMT (08:00 ET) – Fed’s Waller Speaks. The Main Event. Waller is a trusted leading indicator for Fed policy. If he casts doubt on the labor market stabilization, expect a dovish repricing.
• 11:00 GMT – BoE’s Taylor Speaks.
• 17:30 GMT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

Precious metals are the primary beneficiaries of the risk-off mood. The “Anti-Paper” trade is ripping. Gold surged nearly 0.5% to $5,132.86, brushing off last week’s volatility as investors seek shelter from trade wars. Silver is outperforming, up almost 1% to $85.40. Oil is the laggard, dropping 1.32% to $65.60 as hopes for a US-Iran interim deal sap the geopolitical risk premium.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.876	-0.0132	65.604
Gold	74.25	0.0162	4669.08
Silver	3.513	0.0391	93.452
EUR/USD	0.0043	0.0036	1.1826
USD/JPY	-0.48	-0.0031	154.57
Bitcoin	-1608	-0.0239	65743
10-Year Note Yield	-0.017	-0.0042	0.04074

The U.S. dollar is starting the week on the back foot as the new tariff announcement undermines its appeal, while the yen is outperforming.

• EUR/USD: The pair is rallying, breaking back above the 1.1800 level. The euro is benefiting from broad dollar weakness and a coordinated European response to the tariff threat.The Euro is rallying (+0.36%) as the DXY tumbles on the tariff mess. German officials believe the SCOTUS ruling will reduce pressure on the EU economy. Options Expiry: A massive $1.1 Billion option expiry at 1.1845 today aligns perfectly with the 200-hour moving average (1.1838), which will act as a magnetic ceiling, likely capping explosive upside in today’s session.
• GBP/USD: The pound is also catching a bid, climbing above the 1.3500 handle as the “Sell America” trade takes hold.Sterling is extending its bounce (+0.38%), shaking off last week’s ugly unemployment data thanks to Friday’s massive retail sales beat. It is successfully reclaiming the 1.3500 psychological handle.
• USD/JPY: The yen is the clear outperformer, with the pair dropping sharply toward 154.00. The Yen is surging (-0.31% on the pair) as former BOJ member Sakurai flagged a potential March rate hike to counter FX weakness. Combined with the “Risk-Off” flight to safety surrounding the U.S. tariff chaos, the Yen is becoming the premier safe haven.
• AUD/USD: Goldman’s Darling (0.7076). The Aussie is dipping slightly (-0.10%) amidst the broader risk-off equity tone, but it remains heavily supported. Goldman Sachs just upgraded its 12-month AUD forecast to 0.74, citing the RBA’s hawkish divergence from the rest of the world.

Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market remains in a state of freefall. Bitcoin plunged below $66,000, extending its massive correction. The selling pressure was amplified by talk of large liquidations and the broader risk-averse environment. The asset has now wiped out over $1.2 trillion in market cap in just 139 days. With a $4.34 Billion short liquidation imbalance sitting above, the market is heavily skewed bearish. Whales are actively moving coins to exchanges to sell. Treasuries: U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower as investors seek the safety of government bonds amidst the tariff turmoil. The benchmark 10-year yield is trading around 4.07%.

Looking Ahead

This week is shaping up to be one of the most volatile and critical periods of the year. The market will be forced to digest the massive implications of the new tariff regime while simultaneously navigating a gauntlet of “Big Tech” earnings and crucial U.S. economic data. The tension between extreme bullish positioning, as highlighted by the BofA indicator, and the very real macro and geopolitical risks creates a highly combustible environment. Traders must be prepared for significant intraday swings and potential trend reversals.

What to Watch Today

• Fed’s Waller at 08:00 ET: Waller is the Fed’s true compass. He was the first to call the labor market cooling last year. If he questions the “labor stabilization” narrative today, expect a dovish repricing that could send the EUR/USD slicing through its 1.1845 options wall.
• Gold’s Breakout Momentum: Gold is on track for its 8th straight winning month. Watch the $5,150 level. 
• Crypto Whale Watch: Bitcoin is in the danger zone. Keep an eye on the $65,000 level. If whales continue dumping into the bidless void, a cascading liquidation down to $60,000 is highly probable.
• Tariff Headline Risk: Watch for any retaliation rhetoric from the EU or China regarding Trump’s new 15% levy. Retaliation equals lower equities and higher precious metals.