Closing Recap

U.S. stocks suffered a brutal, high-velocity sell-off on Monday, with all major indices plunging well over 1% as a toxic cocktail of tariff anxiety and artificial intelligence fears battered risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 800 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were dragged lower by a violent unwind in software and “Magnificent Seven” stocks. The catalyst was a sudden policy pivot in Washington: after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs on Friday, the White House immediately retaliated by announcing a blanket 15% global tariff under Section 122. Compounding the macro shock was a devastating sector rotation out of AI-linked equities, sparked by a bearish institutional research report detailing the structural displacement risks AI poses to corporate margins. The ensuing panic triggered a classic “risk-off” flight to safety, sending the 10-year Treasury yield sliding to 4.03% and igniting a massive surge in precious metals, with Gold rocketing past the historic $5,200 level.

Key Takeaways

• Dow Plummets 814 Points: The Dow Jones led the capitulation, shedding 1.64% to close at 48,811, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both erased over 1.2% in a broad-based, aggressive liquidation.
• Trump Retaliates with 15% Global Tariff: Following a Supreme Court defeat that voided his “reciprocal” tariffs, President Trump invoked Section 122 to slap a 15% across-the-board levy on US imports, reviving severe trade war fears.
• “Sell America” Trade Revived: The erratic trade policymaking sparked a global “Sell America” reaction, pressuring the US Dollar Index down toward 97.45 and pushing investors heavily into traditional safe havens.
• AI Disruption Panic Crushes Tech: Software and service stocks cratered after a Citrini Research report highlighted structural vulnerabilities to AI displacement. Names like DoorDash and American Express plunged over 5%.
• Magnificent Seven Bleed Billions: Big Tech heavyweights dragged the indices down, with Tesla plunging 3.3% to $398.20 and Amazon losing nearly 3% to settle at $203.86.
• Gold Eclipses $5,200 in Parabolic Squeeze: Safe-haven flows exploded into precious metals. Gold surged nearly 3% to $5,224, while Silver skyrocketed almost 6% to $87.00.
• Bitcoin Whipsaws Below $65,500: Crypto markets failed to catch a safe-haven bid, with Bitcoin diving over 3% to $65,475 alongside the Nasdaq as global liquidity conditions tightened.
• Treasury Yields Tumble: The flight to safety drove aggressive bond buying. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield sank 5 basis points to 4.03%, while the 2-year dropped to 3.45%.
• Yen Strengthens on Safe-Haven Bid: The Japanese Yen caught a formidable tailwind from the risk-off rotation, strengthening to 154.30 against the dollar as leveraged carry trades were rapidly unwound.
• Euro Climbs on Dollar Weakness: The EUR/USD pair pushed back above the 1.1800 handle, benefiting directly from the dollar’s vulnerability to the institutional chaos surrounding US trade policy.
• Oil Prices Cool Amidst Chaos: WTI Crude drifted over 1% lower to settle near $65.77, as traders weighed a potential drop in global demand from the ensuing trade war against a lingering $4 geopolitical premium.
• Nvidia Earnings Loom: Anxiety is peaking ahead of Nvidia’s critical earnings report on Wednesday, adding a massive layer of fundamental tension to an already fragile technology sector.

Market Overview

Monday’s session was a masterclass in risk-off velocity, driven by a perfect storm of geopolitical whiplash and sector-specific capitulation. The market was completely blindsided over the weekend when the White House, fresh off a Supreme Court defeat regarding its previous tariff structure, doubled down with a draconian 15% blanket tariff on global imports. This brute-force policy pivot instantly obliterated the “soft landing” and “deregulation” narratives that had been propping up equities. The immediate result was a frantic repricing of global growth expectations, triggering a violent bid for duration as capital flooded into US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year yield down to 4.03%.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-821.91	-0.0166	48804.06
S&P 500	-71.76	-0.0102	6837.75
Nasdaq	-258.8	-0.0113	22627.27
Russell 2000	-28.5	-0.011	2598

Compounding the macro misery was a sudden, violent crisis of faith in the artificial intelligence narrative. A highly circulated research report outlining the displacement risks AI poses to various industries – ranging from payment processors to delivery apps – ignited a massive dump in software and service stocks This double-whammy of a looming global trade war and AI-induced margin anxiety forced institutional funds to drastically de-risk. The capital flight bypassed cryptocurrencies entirely, dumping Bitcoin in favor of hard, physical assets. Gold and Silver absorbed the lion’s share of this panic bid, going parabolic as the “Sell America” trade gained formidable momentum.

Economic Calendar

• Data Released Yesterday / Overnight:
  • German Ifo Business Climate: Modestly better than expected, but did little to suggest a European manufacturing recovery is gaining real traction.
  • Singapore CPI: Came in largely aligned with expectations, though completely overshadowed by global trade turmoil.
• Today’s Economic Calendar:
  • 15:30 GMT – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected to show further contraction in regional factory activity.
  • Central Bank Speakers: Various officials from the ECB and BoE are scheduled, though markets remain purely focused on US tariff implications.
• Major Risk Events This Week:
  • Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings (Wednesday): The undisputed main event for global equities and AI sentiment.
  • US PCE Inflation Data (Friday): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will dictate March rate cut expectations.
  • Tokyo CPI & Eurozone Confidence Data: Critical for regional central bank posturing in a volatile FX environment.

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

The flight to safety sent shockwaves through the commodities complex, heavily favoring precious metals over energy. Gold completely decoupled from traditional headwinds, surging nearly 3% to a staggering $5,224.60 as investors sought an absolute hedge against the weaponization of US trade policy. Silver rode the exact same massive tailwind, exploding over 5.6% to reclaim the $87.00 level. Conversely, the energy market was starved of bullish catalysts. WTI Crude drifted over 1% lower to settle beneath $66.00 a barrel, as fears that a 15% global tariff will strangle international trade heavily outweighed the remaining geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions.

Asset	Up/Down	% Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.47	0.0071	66.78
Gold	168	0.0332	5249.75
Silver	6.06	0.0736	88.41
EUR/USD	0.0012	0.001	1.1812
USD/JPY	-0.45	-0.0029	153.85
10-Year Note Yield	-0.05	-0.0121	4.08%*

• USD/JPY: The Yen is catching a massive safe-haven bid, dragging the pair down to 154.30. As US Treasury yields compress and global equities crater, the carry trade is being violently unwound. Traders are liquidating risk assets to repatriate Japanese capital, strengthening the currency against a vulnerable greenback.
• EUR/USD: The Euro climbed back above 1.1800, successfully capitalizing on broad dollar weakness. The “Sell America” trade, born out of the chaos surrounding the Trump administration’s shifting tariff mechanics, is providing Europe’s single currency with an artificial fundamental floor despite sluggish domestic data.
• GBP/USD: Cable is holding steady near 1.3510. The Pound is weathering the global storm relatively well, supported by a Bank of England that remains hesitant to slash rates aggressively, while US institutional chaos simultaneously deters dollar bulls.
• AUD/USD: The Aussie remains structurally vulnerable to the downside. As a pure proxy for global trade and Chinese economic health, the looming 15% global US tariff acts as a catastrophic headwind for Australian exports, capping any meaningful upside for the pair.

Cryptocurrencies & Treasuries: The cryptocurrency market suffered a painful liquidity drain, failing to capture the safe-haven status enjoyed by physical metals. Bitcoin plunged over 3% to slide below $65,500, moving in lockstep with the battered Nasdaq 100 as the risk-off rotation forced leveraged funds to liquidate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market caught a ferocious bid. The benchmark 10-year yield plunged over 5 basis points to 4.03%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.45%, reflecting a desperate scramble for duration as investors brace for the economic fallout of renewed, large-scale trade wars.

Looking Ahead

Wall Street is staring down the barrel of a highly volatile week, trapped between a belligerent trade policy out of Washington and an impending technological reality check. The market’s primary tension is deciphering whether Monday’s violent sell-off was a temporary “shock absorption” of the new 15% tariff reality, or the beginning of a deeper, structural de-risking event. With Nvidia’s high-stakes earnings report looming on Wednesday, tech investors are paralyzed. If NVDA fails to deliver absolute perfection, the current AI anxiety could easily metastasize into a full-blown tech capitulation, dragging the broader indices into a punishing, prolonged correction.

What to Watch Today

• The “Sell America” Tariff Shock: President Trump’s pivot to Section 122 for a 15% blanket global tariff has shattered trade confidence. Watch the US Dollar Index (DXY) closely; if it breaks below 97.00, expect safe havens to accelerate further.
• The Gold & Silver Parabola: Precious metals are acting as the ultimate geopolitical hedge. With Gold soaring past $5,200 and Silver jumping nearly 6%, these assets are highly extended. Watch for massive intraday volatility or sudden liquidity vacuums.
• The AI “Displacement” Contagion: The narrative has suddenly shifted from AI’s potential to AI’s collateral damage. Watch software ETFs and payment processors (like Amex and DoorDash) to see if this bearish sector rotation finds a floor or intensifies.
• Nvidia Earnings Paralyzation: The broader market is being held hostage by NVDA’s impending earnings print. Expect tech to trade defensively and heavily react to any semiconductor-adjacent news as traders hedge their exposure.
• The Carry Trade Unwind: With the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping and equities bleeding, USD/JPY is under severe downside pressure. If the pair cleanly slices through 154.00, it signals an aggressive, systemic de-risking by global hedge funds.