Closing Recap (Week Ending October 24) 

U.S. stocks capped another strong week with fresh record highs for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq, fueled by cooling inflation data that cemented expectations for further Fed rate cuts. In currency markets, the US Dollar was mixed but generally firmer against the euro and yen, with EUR/USD slipping, GBP/USD trading sideways after a 6-day slide, and USD/JPY extending gains for a sixth straight day. Gold snapped a 9-week winning streak on profit-taking, while oil prices rose for the week despite a Friday dip. 

Key Takeaways 

• Record Highs Continue: The S&P 500 (+1.92%), Nasdaq (+2.31%), and Dow (+2.2%) all posted strong weekly gains and closed at new record highs, extending the rally into its 7th month. The Dow crossed 47,000 for the first time ever.
• Currency Pairs Diverge: The US Dollar was generally firmer; EUR/USD held near 1.1600 but posted a weekly loss, GBP/USD traded sideways near 1.3325 after a 6-day slide, and USD/JPY rose for a 6th straight day to nearly 153.00 on strong US PMI data. 
• Inflation Cools, Fed Cuts Eyed: September CPI rose less than expected (+0.3% M/M, +3.0% Y/Y), reinforcing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts ahead of next week’s meeting. 
• Government Shutdown Persists: The US government shutdown is now in its 24th day (4th week), the second-longest in history, continuing to delay some economic data releases. 
• Gold’s Historic 9-Week Winning Streak Snapped: After hitting a new record high of $4,381 on Monday, gold reversed sharply, falling over 6% from its peak as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and profit-taking ended its incredible run. 
• Yen Weakness Resumes as Japan’s Political Risk Fades: The Japanese Yen sold off for six straight days against the U.S. Dollar. The formation of a new ruling coalition under Prime Minister Takaichi calmed political chaos, reviving the “Abenomics 2.0” thesis and pressuring the Yen.
• Oil Gains Weekly: WTI crude rose over 7% for the week despite a slight dip on Friday, boosted by US sanctions on Russian oil companies. 
• Bitcoin Rebounds Modestly Ahead of Massive Options Expiry: Bitcoin recovered to the $111,000 level, but faces a major risk event with a record $31 billion in options contracts set to expire on Halloween, threatening renewed market turbulence. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Central Bank Bonanza: A massive week features policy decisions from the FOMC (Wed), BoC (Wed), BoJ (Thu), and ECB (Thu). Mega-cap earnings also kick into high gear. 

Looking Ahead

After a week that saw stocks hit new heights despite a government shutdown, investors are bracing for one of the most consequential weeks of the year. Looking ahead, investors face a monumental week packed with central bank decisions, mega-cap earnings, and high-stakes geopolitics. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday is the main event, with markets expecting a rate cut. This will be accompanied by decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday), Bank of Japan (Thursday), and European Central Bank (Thursday). 

Simultaneously, Q3 earnings season hits its peak, with results due from five of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft. On the geopolitical front, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday during the APEC summit in South Korea, a critical moment for global trade relations.

Market Overview

The U.S. stock market rally that simply refuses to quit powered ahead this week, pushing all three major indices to fresh all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 47,000 level for the first time, just 31 days after passing 46,000. The rally was broad-based, though technology, utilities, and communications sectors continue to lead year-to-date. Friday’s gains were sparked by the release of the September CPI report—the first notable economic data in three weeks due to the shutdown—which showed inflation cooling more than expected. This added fuel to the fire for those betting on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts at next week’s meeting. The “dips get shallower” theme was on full display, with any early weakness aggressively bought.

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	47207	472.51	0.0101	0.022
S&P 500	6791	53.29	0.0079	0.0192
Nasdaq	23204	263.07	0.0115	0.0231
Russell 2000	2513	30.82	0.0124	0.02

Despite the bullish equity action, some headwinds remain. The U.S. government shutdown is entering its fourth week with no end in sight. In the crypto markets, Bitcoin saw a modest rebound to around $111,300, but concerns are mounting over a massive $31 billion options expiry on Halloween that could inject fresh turbulence. Gold prices also saw a significant correction, snapping a nine-week winning streak as profit-taking set in and safe-haven demand waned on hopes for eased US-China trade tensions.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of October 27th)

The market is bracing for what may be the most consequential week of the quarter. The focus shifts from a single data point to a firehose of market-moving events, including four major central bank meetings, the heart of Q3 earnings season, and critical U.S.-China trade talks. 

Economic Calendar Highlights: 

MON (Oct 27): 

• Chinese Industrial Profit (Sep): Provides insight into the health of China’s corporate sector. 
• German Ifo Business Climate (Oct): A key forward-looking indicator for Europe’s largest economy. 
• US Durable Goods (Sep): A measure of big-ticket item purchases that offers a look at business investment. 

TUE (Oct 29): 

• US Consumer Confidence (Oct): Key gauge of household sentiment amid the shutdown. 
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep): Labor market data (if released).

WED (Oct 29): 

• FOMC Monetary Policy Announcement: The main event of the week. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut to 3.75-4.00%. 
• BoC Monetary Policy Announcement: The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates, with markets fully pricing in a 25bps move to 2.25%. 
• Australian CPI (Q3): A critical inflation reading that will shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook. 
• German/Spanish Prelim CPI (Oct): Early Eurozone inflation reads. 
• US GDP (Q3 – Advance) [LIKELY DELAYED]: First look at Q3 growth, but release is highly uncertain due to shutdown. 
• MEGA-CAP EARNINGS: GOOGL, MSFT, META likely report.

THU (Oct 30): 

• BoJ Monetary Policy Announcement: The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but its updated Outlook Report will be closely watched. 
• ECB Monetary Policy Announcement: The European Central Bank is also expected to stand pat, with the focus on President Lagarde’s press conference. 
• Trump-Xi Meeting: The U.S. and Chinese presidents are expected to meet at the APEC Summit in South Korea to discuss trade. 
• US Q3 Flash GDP (Likely Delayed): While scheduled, the release of this data is uncertain due to the government shutdown. 
• US PCE Price Index (Sep) [LIKELY DELAYED]: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, likely delayed by shutdown. 
• MEGA-CAP EARNINGS: AAPL, AMZN likely report.

FRI (Oct 31): 

• Chinese NBS PMIs (Oct): China’s official manufacturing and services PMI readings. 
• Eurozone Flash HICP (Oct): The first look at October inflation for the Eurozone.
• US PCE Inflation (Sep – Likely Delayed): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is also likely to be delayed.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) [LIKELY DELAYED]: Critical jobs report, likely delayed.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

A dramatic reversal defined the week for Gold. The precious metal began the week by surging to a new all-time high of $4,381. However, it then sold off sharply, falling over 6% from its peak to snap its historic nine-week winning streak to settle at $4,137.80/oz on Friday. The pullback was driven by profit-taking and eased safe-haven demand on hopes for US-China trade progress. Conversely, crude oil posted a strong week, with WTI rising 7.6% despite a slight dip on Friday, supported by new US sanctions on Russian oil companies. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	61.5	-0.29	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	65.94	-0.05	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	4137.8	-7.8	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1626	0.001	Rate
USD/JPY	152.8	0.22	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.03996	0.00007	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	111,307	2.05%	USD

In currency markets, the US Dollar was generally firmer ahead of the Fed meeting and a dramatic reversal in the Japanese Yen as political risks faded. 

• USD/JPY: The pair surged for the sixth consecutive day, closing near 152.80. The primary driver was the formation of a new ruling coalition in Japan under Prime Minister Takaichi. This calmed the political chaos that had caused the Yen to rally the previous week and revived market expectations for “Abenomics 2.0″—a policy mix of fiscal spending and continued loose monetary policy that is bearish for the Yen. 
• EUR/USD: The pair is poised to finish the week with a loss of 0.21%, struggling to hold the 1.1600 level. The Euro is facing headwinds from key technical resistance and growing fiscal concerns after Moody’s cut France’s outlook to negative, citing political instability and rising debt. 
• GBP/USD: Sterling was under pressure, closing down for the sixth straight day around 1.3325. Despite recent strong domestic data like retail sales, the pound was unable to fight the broader market currents and the divergent monetary policy outlook between a dovish Fed and a potentially more constrained Bank of England.

Treasury yields were mostly flat for the week but have trended lower over the past month, with the 10-year yield settling at 3.996% ahead of the Fed meeting. The Bitcoin market saw a modest rebound to around $111,000, but the recovery is fragile. A massive cloud looms over the market in the form of a record $31 billion in options contracts set to expire on Halloween. Analysts are concerned this event could inject extreme turbulence into a market where traders are once again building up aggressive leveraged positions.