Closing Recap 

Global markets started the week on a positive note, with Asian shares advancing, led by tech stocks, following another week of gains on Wall Street. The rally on Friday was supercharged by Amazon’s blowout earnings, which propelled the S&P 500 to its third straight winning week and sixth consecutive winning month. The U.S. dollar kicked off the new week on firm footing, hovering near three-month highs as markets continue to price in a more cautious Federal Reserve. This dollar strength kept pressure on major currencies, with GBP/USD languishing near six-month lows ahead of this week’s key Bank of England decision. In commodities, crude oil gapped higher after an unexpected OPEC+ decision to pause output hikes in Q1 2026, while gold ticked up but remained capped by the strong dollar. The crypto market continued its bearish trend, with Bitcoin slipping below $108,000. 

Key Takeaways 

• Wall St. Gains Continue into Asia: Strong earnings, particularly from Amazon, helped the S&P 500 cap a sixth straight winning month, with positive sentiment carrying over into the new week. 
• Fed Caution & Shutdown Risks Dominate: The market remains fixated on the Fed’s hawkish tilt and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which Goldman Sachs warns could cause record economic damage to Q4 GDP. 
• Shutdown Enters Record Territory, Economic Damage Looms: The U.S. government shutdown is now on Day 33 and is forecast to become the longest in history.
• Dollar Dominance Continues: The U.S. Dollar Index held firm above 99.50, weighing on EUR/USD and pushing GBP/USD to multi-month lows as traders anticipate a BoE rate cut. 
• Reminder: Clocks in the U.S. and Canada turned back one hour over the weekend.
• Oil Gaps Higher on OPEC+ Surprise: Crude oil prices jumped at the open after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced it would pause production hikes for the first quarter of 2026, signaling concern over a winter oversupply. 
• Gold Pressured but Seasonals Turn Favorable: Gold found a slight bid but remains under pressure from the strong dollar. However, November marks the start of a historically strong seasonal period for the precious metal. 
• ‘Uptober’ Fails as Bitcoin Slides Below $108k: Bitcoin lost ground in October for the first time since 2018, with the bearish momentum continuing into the new week amid fading hopes for aggressive Fed easing. 
• BoE and PMIs Headline a Busy Week: The week is packed with key events, including Manufacturing PMIs today and the pivotal Bank of England monetary policy decision on Thursday. 

Market Overview

The new month and week began with a bullish undercurrent, as investors continued to celebrate a strong earnings season that has largely justified lofty equity valuations. Amazon’s spectacular 9.6% surge on Friday after reporting a massive profit beat was the primary engine, underscoring the resilience of the U.S. tech giants and the broader economy. This optimism is reflected in November’s strong historical seasonals, which typically favor risk assets. The S&P 500 closed out its sixth straight winning month in October, its longest such streak since 2021, and now enters what is historically the best month of the year for stocks.

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	40.75	0.0009	47562.87
S&P 500	17.86	0.0026	6840.2
Nasdaq	143.81	0.0061	23724.96
Russell 2000	-18.87	-0.0076	2465

However, significant macroeconomic headwinds are brewing, keeping a lid on unbridled bullishness. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fifth week and is on track to become the longest in history. Goldman Sachs issued a stark warning that a six-week shutdown could slash Q4 GDP growth by over a full percentage point, the largest economic hit on record from such an event. This creates a challenging “data fog” for the Federal Reserve, which last week signaled that another rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” This hawkish repricing continues to support the U.S. dollar and is forcing markets to adopt a more cautious stance despite the positive earnings backdrop.

Economic Calendar 

The week kicks off with a focus on manufacturing PMIs from around the globe. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to disrupt the release of key American data, placing more weight on private surveys and central bank commentary.

Data Released Earlier / Overnight: 

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct): Slipped to 50.6 from 51.2, showing factory activity expanded at a slower pace amid softer new orders and tariff uncertainty. 
• Australian Final Manufacturing PMI (Oct): Confirmed a dip into contraction at 49.7, marking the first deterioration in factory conditions this year. 
• Swiss CPI (Oct): Missed expectations across the board, with the headline rate falling to +0.1% y/y (vs. +0.3% exp), reinforcing the SNB’s on-hold stance. 

Today’s Economic Calendar: 

• European Session: Final Manufacturing PMIs for major Eurozone economies and the UK. 
• U.S. Session: The main highlight is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), with the consensus looking for a slight improvement to 49.4 from 49.1, though still in contractionary territory. 

Major Risk Events This Week: 

• Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (Thursday): This is the week’s main event. Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays now expect a 25bp rate cut, which is weighing heavily on the pound. 
• Services PMIs (Wednesday): Key activity data from the U.S. and other major economies. 
• Canadian Employment Report (Friday): A top-tier release for the Canadian dollar. 
• Fed Speakers: A packed schedule of FOMC members will be speaking throughout the week, providing potential clues on the December policy outlook.

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

The big story in commodities is the jump in WTI Crude Oil, which is trading above $61. Prices gapped higher after OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to pause its planned output hikes for the first quarter of 2026, a move seen as preemptively supporting prices against a potential winter oversupply. Gold is seeing a modest bounce, trading back above $4,000, but it remains under pressure after two consecutive weekly losses. However, traders are noting that November begins a seasonally very strong period for the precious metal.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.54	0.0043	61.24
Gold	38.8	0.0097	4035.3
EUR/USD	-0.001	-0.0009	1.1529
USD/JPY	0.17	0.0011	154.19
Bitcoin	-2494	-0.0227	107582
10-Year Note Yield	0.016	0.0039	0.04095

The currency market is starting the week with the U.S. Dollar on a firm footing, holding near three-month highs as the market continues to price out a December Fed rate cut. 

• EUR/USD: The Euro is extending its losing streak for a fourth straight day, trading weakly around 1.1530. With the ECB firmly on hold and the Fed pushing back against aggressive easing bets, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for the single currency.
• GBP/USD: Sterling is languishing near its lowest level since April, trading below 1.3150. The fundamental backdrop is decidedly bearish, with a combination of broad dollar strength, UK fiscal concerns, and now widespread expectations for a BoE rate cut on Thursday weighing heavily on the Pound Sterling. 
• USD/JPY: The pair held firm above 154.00, near its recent eight-month high. With Japanese markets closed for a holiday, liquidity is thin, but the underlying theme of wide policy divergence between a dovish Bank of Japan and a comparatively hawkish Fed keeps the pair well-supported.

U.S. Treasury yields are ticking higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.09%. The crypto market is starting the new month on a weak footing, with Bitcoin falling over 2% to below $108,000, after a disappointing “Uptober” that saw the token post its first loss for the month since 2018.

Looking Ahead 

Today’s trading will be heavily influenced by the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will provide a crucial health check on the American industrial sector. For the rest of the week, the market will be laser-focused on the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday and a full slate of speeches from Fed officials. Traders will be looking for any clues that could confirm or challenge the market’s current view that the Fed will remain on hold in December, a theme that will continue to be a primary driver for the U.S. dollar and broader risk sentiment. What to Watch: 

• The Shutdown’s Economic Bite: The market is still largely ignoring the shutdown, but with it now set to be the longest in history, the economic damage is becoming a real concern. Goldman Sachs’s forecast of a >1 percentage point hit to Q4 GDP is a stark warning. 
•  A Huge Central Bank Week: While the Fed is out of the way, this week brings a crucial Bank of England rate decision (Thursday), where a cut is now a real possibility, as well as the RBA meeting tomorrow. The heavy schedule of Fed speakers will also be key in shaping expectations for the December FOMC meeting. 
• November Seasonality: November is historically the best month of the year for many risk assets, including the Nasdaq, Nikkei, and USD/JPY, and a very strong period for Gold. Traders will be watching to see if these powerful seasonal tailwinds can continue to propel markets higher. 
• FX Options and Key Levels: Be aware of large options expiries that could influence price action, including GBP/USD at 1.3100 and EUR/USD at 1.1450. These levels could act as significant support zones for the beleaguered European currencies.