Closing Recap
U.S. stocks finished mixed on Thursday, erasing significant early losses to end the day relatively flat as the market digested a massive surge in crude oil prices and President Trump’s address to the nation. The Nasdaq managed a small gain, snapping its losing streak, but the broader market struggled for direction ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Nasdaq roared back to close up 3.84%, logging its best day since May 2025, while the S&P 500 added 2.89%. The real action was in the energy market, where WTI crude exploded over 11% to settle above $111 a barrel, and Brent surged near $109, after President Trump warned that the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and threatened to target electric plants if no deal is reached.
This escalation crushed early hopes for a quick resolution and sent the U.S. dollar surging. Precious metals were hammered by the stronger dollar, with gold and silver suffering massive losses, while the crypto market also saw heavy selling. As traders head into the illiquid Good Friday holiday, the divergence between soaring equities and parabolic oil prices sets the stage for a highly dangerous weekend hold.
Key Takeaways
- Oil Prices Explode on Escalation Fears: WTI crude skyrocketed over 11% to $111.14 and Brent surged to $109.03 after President Trump dashed hopes for a quick end to the conflict, threatening further severe strikes on Iran.
- Stocks Erase Early Losses to Finish Mixed: Despite the oil shock, U.S. equities showed remarkable resilience, bouncing from their morning lows to finish mixed, with the Nasdaq eking out a 0.18% gain.
- Nasdaq Snaps Thursday Losing Streak: The tech-heavy index finally broke a brutal 9-week streak of Thursday declines, finding support as investors digested the latest geopolitical developments.
- The “Magnificent” Rebound: The “Miserable 7” regained their crown today. Mega-cap tech stocks (META, GOOGL, NVDA) staged a furious rally, driving the Nasdaq up nearly 4%. The NYSE TICK index hit an unprecedented +2329, indicating aggressive, broad-based algorithmic buying across the entire exchange.
- Gold and Silver Suffer Massive Reversal: Precious metals were crushed as the U.S. dollar surged on the hawkish implications of the oil shock. Gold plunged $133 an ounce, and silver tumbled over 4%.
- The Good Friday “NFP Trap”: Today is Non-Farm Payrolls, but equity and bond markets are closed. CME futures will trade a heavily abbreviated schedule, meaning any surprise in the jobs data (Est: +60k) will trigger violent, illiquid moves in FX and crypto markets.
- Bitcoin’s Institutional Divergence: Bitcoin held steady near $67,500, officially snapping a 5-month losing streak to close March slightly green. While retail holders face $600B in unrealized losses from the ATH, Spot ETFs logged a 5-day inflow streak ($767M), signaling that institutions are quietly accumulating the dip.
- Dollar Surges as Rate Cut Hopes Die: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rallied strongly, punishing the euro and the pound, as the surging cost of energy effectively killed any remaining hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026.
- Euro Slips, Dollar Reigns: The DXY Index closed its best month since 2024 (+2.5%), pushing EUR/USD down to 1.1537. The stagflationary threat of $110 oil is forcing markets to price in ECB rate hikes, but the Dollar’s safe-haven and energy-independence premium is overpowering the Euro.
- JPMorgan Warns of “Near-Term Oil Squeeze”: The bank warned that the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices into the $120 – $130 range, a scenario that would severely threaten global growth.
- NFP Report on Good Friday: The market is bracing for the March Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released today despite the Good Friday market holiday, setting the stage for a potentially volatile open on Monday.
- The “TACO” Confusion: Trump’s speech last night promised 2-3 more weeks of “extremely hard” strikes, contradicting earlier ceasefire rumors. However, mid-morning reports that Iran and Oman are drafting a Hormuz “monitoring” protocol – and later comments from the Iranian President seeking guarantees to end the war – provided the spark for the massive short-covering rally in equities.
Market Overview
Thursday’s trading session was a wild, headline-driven rollercoaster that ultimately left the market in a precarious position. The day began with a glimmer of hope as reports circulated that Iran and Oman were drafting protocols to monitor traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a potential easing of the blockade. This sparked a brief relief rally in equities. However, that optimism was completely shattered by President Trump’s address to the nation. His assertion that the U.S. is prepared to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, and his threat to target civilian infrastructure like electric plants, signaled that the conflict is far from over. The first quarter of 2026 will go down in history. We have witnessed a 84% YTD surge in Brent Crude, the worst month for Gold in 18 years, and a massive correction in Mega-Cap tech – all culminating in a ferocious +3% short-squeeze on the final day of the quarter.
| Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
| DJ Industrials | -61.01 | -0.13% | 46,504 |
| S&P 500 | 7.35 | 0.11% | 6,582 |
| Nasdaq | 38.23 | 0.18% | 21,879 |
| Russell 2000 | 17.68 | 0.70% | 2,530 |
The reaction in the energy market was violent and immediate. The 11% surge in WTI crude oil is a massive, systemic shock that fundamentally alters the macroeconomic landscape. The market is now aggressively pricing in the reality of stagflation – a toxic combination of slowing growth and surging, energy-driven inflation. This dynamic is supercharging the U.S. dollar as a safe haven and forcing a complete repricing of central bank expectations. The fact that the S&P 500 managed to close only slightly lower is a testament to the market’s ingrained “buy the dip” mentality, but this resilience will be severely tested if oil prices continue their upward trajectory. With the crucial NFP report dropping into a thin, holiday-closed market today, investors are bracing for an explosive start to trading next week. With S&P 500 put positioning at Great Financial Crisis levels (-$55 Billion), today’s rally was a mechanical unwinding of hedges rather than a fundamental “all clear.”
Economic Calendar
Warning: today is Good Friday. Most global equity and bond markets are closed, making for extremely thin liquidity conditions. However, a major U.S. economic report will still be released.
Data Released Yesterday / Overnight:
- U.S. Jobless Claims: Fell to 202,000, continuing to show a remarkably resilient labor market.
- U.S. Trade Balance (Feb): The goods deficit widened to -$84.60B.
- China Caixin Services PMI (Mar): Slowed significantly to 52.1 from 56.7, indicating cooling domestic demand.
- Japan Services PMI (Mar): Eased to 53.4, with input costs rising sharply due to energy prices.
Today’s Economic Calendar:
- U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday.
- U.S. Session: The main event is the U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report (8:30 AM ET). Consensus expects +60K jobs added and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. Given the holiday closure, any surprises will channel through futures and FX markets, setting up a potentially volatile Monday open.
- 12:30 GMT (8:30 ET) – US Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar). Est: +60k. Unemployment Est: 4.4%. Wage Growth Est: 3.7% YoY.
Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto
The split reality is glaring. The energy market is the epicenter of the crisis. Crude oil exploded higher, with WTI surging over 11% to top $111 and Brent nearing $110, as President Trump signaled a prolonged military campaign in Iran completely ignoring the equity market’s optimism. In stark contrast, precious metals were crushed by the surging U.S. dollar and the realization that inflation will remain sticky. Gold plunged over $133 an ounce, and silver tumbled over 4% to $72.92, as safe-haven demand shifted entirely to the greenback. The “Cash is King” dynamic is destroying the metals complex.
| Asset | Up/Down | Unit / % Change | Last |
| WTI Crude | 11.02 | 11.01% | 111.14 |
| Brent Crude | 7.87 | 7.78% | 109.03 |
| Gold | -133.40 | -2.77% | 4,679.70 |
| EUR/USD | -0.0051 | -0.44% | 1.1537 |
| USD/JPY | 0.81 | 0.51% | 159.58 |
| 10-Year Note Yield | -0.006 | -0.14% | 4.313% |
The U.S. dollar surged as the escalation in the Middle East conflict drove safe-haven demand and reinforced expectations of a “higher for longer” Fed.
- EUR/USD: The pair tumbled, dropping to near 1.1530. The Eurozone is acutely vulnerable to the oil shock, raising severe stagflation fears and crushing the single currency.
- GBP/USD: The pound also plunged, sliding toward 1.3200. The BoE’s dovish shift (pushing back on hike expectations) collided with the surging Dollar, sending Cable to its lowest level since November.
- USD/JPY: The pair rallied strongly towards 159.60. While the yen is a traditional safe haven, Japan’s status as a major energy importer is outweighing its haven appeal in the face of the oil shock, sending the currency lower against the surging dollar. BOJ officials continue to warn of the inflationary impact of oil, but the central bank is paralyzed. The Ministry of Finance is on high alert as the pair flirts with the 160.00 intervention line.
- AUD/USD: Ignoring the PMIs. The Aussie is holding near 0.6910. Despite terrible domestic manufacturing data (contraction + surging costs), the broader “Risk-On” equity squeeze in the U.S. provided a temporary lifeline.
Cryptocurrencies: The crypto market remains highly vulnerable to the macro backdrop. Bitcoin sank to near $66,450, tracking the broader risk-off mood and suffering from the realization that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon. The token has now erased nearly 50% of its value from its all-time high, leaving many holders underwater. However, in the short-term, the regulatory tailwind (SEC/CFTC harmonization) and institutional ETF inflows are providing a massive floor against the macro chaos. U.S. Treasury yields slipped slightly on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year yield easing to 4.313%. However, the bond market is closed today, and the trend remains sharply higher as the market aggressively prices in a resurgence of inflation driven by the oil shock.
Looking Ahead
Today is a “Ghost Ship” session. With global equity and bond markets closed for Good Friday, today’s trading will be confined to futures and forex markets, characterized by extreme tension and thin liquidity. The release of the U.S. NFP report at 8:30 AM ET is a major wildcard. A strong report will further cement the “no rate cuts” narrative and boost the dollar, while a weak report might offer some temporary relief. However, the market remains entirely hostage to headlines from the Middle East. If the conflict escalates further over the holiday weekend, particularly with any attacks on energy infrastructure, oil prices could gap significantly higher on Sunday evening, setting the stage for a brutal open for equities on Monday.
What to Watch Today
- The Illiquid NFP Print (8:30 ET): A massive miss (negative jobs) or a massive beat (>150k) will trigger violent, erratic swings in the U.S. Dollar and USD/JPY. Because liquidity is virtually zero, slippage will be extreme.
- Strait of Hormuz Headlines: If Iran officially demands a “Transit Toll” or attacks another vessel over the long weekend, WTI Crude will gap up significantly on Sunday night, potentially destroying yesterday’s equity rally.
- USD/JPY @ 160.00: If the NFP is hot, the Dollar will spike. If USD/JPY crosses 160.00 in a thin holiday market, the Bank of Japan/MOF has the perfect setup to execute a devastating, unannounced FX intervention to punish speculators.