Closing Recap
A holiday-shortened session delivered a dramatic divergence on Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a fresh record high above 52,900 while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled for a second straight session, dragged down by a brutal semiconductor rout. The Dow surged 594.83 points (+1.14%) to close at 52,900.07, marking its highest-ever closing level. The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged, edging up less than 0.1% to 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 207.36 points (-0.80%) to 25,832.67.
The catalyst was a shockingly weak June nonfarm payrolls report – just 57,000 jobs added versus expectations of 110,000, roughly half of what economists had forecast. The data slammed the brakes on Fed rate-hike expectations, sending the dollar tumbling, bonds rallying, and precious metals soaring. Gold surged nearly 2% above $4,200 per ounce, silver jumped nearly 3%, and Bitcoin broke above $62,000 before consolidating near $61,000. The Nasdaq’s decline, however, underscored the market’s bifurcation: seven out of every 10 stocks in the S&P 500 rose, but the chip sector’s continued unraveling – now down 11% in two days – kept the tech-heavy index in the red.
Key Takeaways
- Dow Hits Record 52,900: The Dow surged 1.14% to 52,900.07, a new all-time closing high. The S&P 500 was unchanged at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq fell 0.80% to 25,832.67.
- Semiconductor Bloodbath Continues: The semiconductor sector extended its selloff, now down approximately 11% over two days, with SanDisk plunging over 14%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s historic first-half gains continued to unwind.
- June Jobs Report Shocks Markets: Nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June – roughly half the 110,000 expected and well below May’s downwardly revised 129,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% from 4.2%.
- Gold Surges Above $4,200: COMEX gold surged nearly 2% to $4,202.80 per ounce, touching an intraday high of $4,206.70. Spot gold jumped 2.3% to $4,123.96.
- Silver Jumps Nearly 3%: COMEX silver jumped 2.82% to $62.785 per ounce, while spot silver rallied 3.14% to $60.97.
- Oil Steadies as Peace Holds: Brent crude traded around $71-72 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $68-69, with both benchmarks on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
- Dollar Tumbles on Fed Pivot: The DXY fell 0.52% to 100.87 – its biggest one-day drop in two months. The dollar is now down 0.6% for the week.
- USD/JPY Plunges from 40-Year Highs: The yen surged as USD/JPY dropped nearly 1% to 161.08, retreating sharply from Tuesday’s 40-year low of 162.84.
- Bitcoin Breaches $62,000: BTC surged above $62,000 on the weak jobs data before consolidating near $61,360 – up 2.5% on the week.
- Goldman Sachs: Investors Trim Big Tech Exposure: Goldman says investors are reducing exposure to the Magnificent Seven as they favor AI beneficiaries like semiconductors over hyperscalers funding heavy AI spending.
- UBS Cuts Year-End Gold Forecast to $5,000/Oz: The bank lowered its gold forecast, citing higher interest rates, though the forecast still implies significant upside from current levels.
- Speculators Build 2nd Largest Yen Short in History: Hedge funds have built the second-largest Japanese yen short position on record, setting up a potential squeeze if the dollar continues to weaken.
- Tiger Research Turns Bullish on Bitcoin: The firm believes the market is likely in the final stage of its bear cycle, with any further weakness likely limited, driven by improving liquidity and institutional adoption.
Market Overview
The June nonfarm payrolls report delivered a thunderbolt to financial markets on Thursday, with just 57,000 jobs added versus expectations of 110,000 – roughly half of what economists had forecast. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth slowed more than anticipated. The data represented a dramatic cooling of the labor market and effectively slammed the brakes on the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Markets immediately repriced rate expectations, with the probability of a September hike tumbling from 66% to below 40%, and the dollar suffering its worst one-day drop in two months.
U.S. and Major World Indices:
| Index | Up/Down | % | Last | Sentiment |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | Up | +1.14% | 52,900.07 | Bullish |
| S&P 500 | Flat | +0.01 pts | 7,483.24 | Neutral |
| Nasdaq Composite | Down | -0.80% | 25,832.67 | Bearish |
| FTSE 100 | — | — | — | — |
| DAX 30 | — | — | — | — |
| Nikkei 225 | — | — | — | — |
The reaction across asset classes was swift and powerful. Gold surged nearly 2% above $4,200 per ounce as the dollar weakened and rate-hike fears receded. Silver jumped nearly 3% to $62.785, while Bitcoin broke above $62,000 before consolidating. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady around 4.48%, while the 2-year yield dropped, steepening the yield curve. The Dow soared to a record high above 52,900, but the Nasdaq fell for a second straight session as the semiconductor sector continued its brutal unwind – now down approximately 11% in just two days. Seven of every 10 S&P 500 stocks rose, but the index was held back by the chip sector’s continued weakness.
Economic Calendar
The macro data landscape was dominated by the shockingly weak June nonfarm payrolls report, which dramatically reshaped the Fed outlook.
Data Released Yesterday / Overnight:
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (June): Just 57,000 jobs added versus 110,000 expected – roughly half of forecasts. May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000.
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (June): Rose unexpectedly to 4.3% from 4.2%.
- U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (June): Slowed more than anticipated, easing wage inflation concerns.
- U.S. Trade Balance (May): Trade data released ahead of the holiday.
- U.S.-Iran Next Round: Sources confirmed the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations will take place on July 18.
- U.S. Markets: Stock and bond markets closed Friday for Independence Day, resuming trading on July 6.
Today’s Economic Calendar:
- U.S. Independence Day Holiday: U.S. stock and bond markets closed.
Major Risk Events Next Week:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (July 9): Markets will scrutinize officials’ latest remarks on the rate hike path.
- Six G10 Central Banks Meet in July: RBNZ (July 8), BoC (July 15), ECB (July 23), FOMC (July 29), BoE (July 30), BoJ (July 31). Pricing for a Fed hike in July stands at 32%.
Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto
The weak jobs report triggered a seismic shift across asset classes. Gold surged nearly 2% to $4,202.80 per ounce, touching an intraday high of $4,206.70, while spot gold jumped 2.3% to $4,123.96. Silver soared, with COMEX silver up 2.82% to $62.785 and spot silver rallying 3.14% to $60.97. Oil steadied as peace hopes held, with Brent around $71-72 and WTI near $68-69. The dollar tumbled, with the DXY falling 0.52% to 100.87. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.4860%, while the 2-year yield dropped, widening the 10s-2s spread to 34.70 basis points.
Asset Class Snapshot:
| Asset | Up/Down | Unit / % Change | Last |
| WTI Oil | Up | +0.2% | ~$68.83/bbl |
| Brent Oil | Up | +0.24% | ~$72.10/bbl |
| Gold (COMEX) | Up | +1.3% to +2% | $4,202.80/oz |
| Gold (Spot) | Up | +2.3% | $4,123.96/oz |
| Silver (COMEX) | Up | +2.82% | $62.785/oz |
| Silver (Spot) | Up | +3.14% | $60.97/oz |
| Bitcoin | Up | ~ +1.7% | ~$61,441 |
| EUR/USD | Up | +0.48% | 1.1431 |
| GBP/USD | Up | — | — |
| USD/JPY | Down | -0.91% | 161.08 |
| 10-Year Note Yield | Up | +1.1 bps | 4.486% |
USD/JPY: The yen surged as USD/JPY dropped nearly 1% to 161.08, retreating sharply from Tuesday’s 40-year low of 162.84. Speculators have built the second-largest yen short position in history, setting up a potential squeeze if the dollar continues to weaken.- EUR/USD: The euro jumped 0.48% to $1.1431 as the dollar tumbled on the weak jobs data.
- GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened alongside other major currencies as the dollar sold off broadly.
- AUD/USD: The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied as risk appetite improved and the dollar weakened.
Cryptocurrencies & Treasuries:
Bitcoin surged above $62,000 on the weak jobs data before consolidating near $61,360 – up 2.5% on the week. Ether rose 4.2% in 24 hours, while Solana surged 18.6% on the week. A short squeeze added to the upward momentum, with short traders forced to cover positions. Tiger Research turned more constructive on Bitcoin, arguing the market is likely in the final stage of its bear cycle, with improving liquidity and institutional adoption set to drive the next cycle.
In Treasuries, the 10-year yield held at 4.4860%, while the 2-year yield dropped, widening the spread to 34.70 basis points. TD Securities suggested investors could consider buying 10-year Treasuries on weakness, expecting yields to remain in a 4.25%-4.66% range.
Looking Ahead
The shockingly weak June jobs report has fundamentally reshaped the market landscape heading into the Independence Day holiday. With just 57,000 jobs added – roughly half of expectations – the Fed’s hawkish narrative has been dealt a significant blow. Markets have repriced rate expectations dramatically, with the probability of a September hike tumbling from 66% to below 40%, and the dollar suffering its worst one-day drop in two months.
The primary tension now is whether this is the beginning of a sustained labor market cooling that forces the Fed to pivot, or merely a one-off data point that will be reversed in coming months. For gold, silver, and Bitcoin, the weak jobs data provided a powerful lifeline – but with UBS cutting its year-end gold forecast to $5,000 and Goldman noting investors are trimming Big Tech exposure, the path forward remains uncertain. All eyes now turn to the FOMC minutes on July 9 for further clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory.
What to Watch Today
- The Jobs Report Aftermath: With just 57,000 jobs added in June – roughly half of expectations – markets have repriced dramatically. Watch for follow-through in the dollar and gold when trading resumes on July 6.
- Tiger Research Turns Bullish on Bitcoin: The firm believes the market is in the final stage of its bear cycle. With BTC breaking above $62,000 on the weak jobs data, watch for whether this marks a sustained reversal.
- The Yen Short Squeeze: Speculators have built the second-largest yen short position in history. With USD/JPY plunging from 162.84 to 161.08, a short squeeze could accelerate the yen’s recovery.
- Gold’s $4,200 Test: Gold surged above $4,200 on the weak jobs data. UBS has cut its year-end forecast to $5,000, but the metal faces resistance near these levels.