Closing Recap (Week Ending October 3) 

U.S. stocks posted another week of gains, with the S&P 500 rising for the sixth straight day, as markets shrugged off a partial U.S. government shutdown and signs of economic slowing, buoyed instead by relentless AI optimism. In currency markets, the US Dollar retreated, posting multi-week losses as the shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data, with EUR/USD holding firm above 1.1700, GBP/USD registering a weekly gain, and USD/JPY losing momentum. Gold surged to new record highs, oil tumbled to 4-month lows, and Bitcoin rallied strongly on seasonal optimism. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks End Week Higher Despite Shutdown: Major indices posted weekly gains (S&P +1.09%, Nasdaq +1.32%) despite the ongoing US government shutdown and a weak ISM Services report. AI enthusiasm and hopes for Fed cuts continue to drive the rally. 
• Currency Pairs Reflect Dollar Weakness: The US Dollar fell for the week amid shutdown uncertainty; EUR/USD held firm above 1.1700, GBP/USD posted its first weekly gain in three, and USD/JPY dipped below 147.50 as the dollar’s rebound lost steam.
• Bitcoin Surges on “Uptober” Optimism: Bitcoin posted a weekly rise of over 8%, topping $122,750 and nearing its all-time high, driven by seasonal “Uptober” cheer and speculation that the shutdown could redirect liquidity into alternative assets. 
• Gold Hits New Record, Oil Tumbles: Gold surged for a seventh straight week to new record highs above $3,900/oz on haven demand. In stark contrast, WTI crude oil fell over -7% for the week to 4-month lows ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting. 
• US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3: The shutdown began at midnight Wednesday, delaying key economic data releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report, and clouding the Fed’s policy outlook. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: Geopolitical developments take center stage with the Japanese LDP Leadership Election (Sat) and the OPEC+ Meeting (Sun). Central bank minutes from the FOMC (Wed) and ECB (Thu) will also be key.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market faces a weekend packed with significant geopolitical events that could set the tone for the coming week. The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect its new leader on Saturday, a decision that could have major implications for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and the yen. On Sunday, OPEC+ ministers will meet to discuss production quotas, with reports suggesting a potential acceleration of supply increases, which could further pressure oil prices. 

With the US government shutdown delaying key US data, investors will rely heavily on central bank commentary. The minutes from the recent dovish-leaning FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, followed by the ECB’s meeting accounts on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also set to make a policy decision on Wednesday, with the market split between a 25bps and a more aggressive 50bps rate cut. BoJ Governor Ueda is also scheduled to speak.

Market Overview

In a stunning display of resilience, U.S. equity markets climbed higher this week, completely ignoring the federal government shutdown, a contracting ISM services sector, and the absence of key economic data. The S&P 500 eked out a sixth consecutive daily gain to cap a 1.1% weekly advance, a relentless rally that has pushed market statistics into unprecedented territory. The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) is on pace for its 108th straight close above its 50-day moving average, a streak not seen since 2017, underscoring the powerful momentum behind the current move. The rally remains driven by a handful of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names, but speculative momentum has also flowed into themes like nuclear energy, quantum computing, and crypto-related stocks. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	46758	238.56	0.0051	0.011
S&P 500	6715	0.44	0.0001	0.0109
Nasdaq	22780	-63.55	-0.0028	0.0132
Russell 2000	2476	17.69	0.0072	0.0151

The market’s ability to climb despite the political impasse in Washington and a lack of fresh data has left many analysts in awe, though some warn that a prolonged shutdown could eventually begin to weigh on the economy and investor sentiment. In the digital asset space, Bitcoin had a very strong week, posting a weekly rise of over 8% to top $122,750, putting it less than $2,000 away from its all-time high. The rally was attributed to seasonal optimism, known as “Uptober,” and speculation that the government shutdown could act as a catalyst for a short-term liquidity impulse, redirecting funds toward alternative assets. This bullish action in crypto contrasted with a more mixed picture in traditional commodities.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of October 6th) 

With the U.S. government shutdown creating a data void—most notably the delay of the jobs report—the market’s focus will shift decisively to global political events and a series of central bank communications. Minutes from the Fed and ECB, alongside a live rate decision from the RBNZ, will provide the main clues for monetary policy direction.

SAT (Oct 5): 

• Japanese LDP Leadership Election: Results will determine Japan’s next Prime Minister; candidates have differing views on monetary and fiscal policy, creating risk for the yen. A victory for the expansionist-minded Sanae Takaichi is seen as potentially negative for the JPY.

SUN (Oct 6): 

• OPEC+ Meeting: Focus on whether the group accelerates the unwinding of production curbs; reports suggest a hike of up to 500k bpd is on the table. 

MON (Oct 7): 

• EZ Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct): Eurozone sentiment gauge. 

TUE (Oct 8): 

• German Industrial Orders (Aug): Factory orders for Germany. 
• US & Canadian Trade Balance (Aug): Trade figures for North America. 

WED (Oct 9): 

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision: A close call; market pricing leans slightly toward a 25bp cut (55.5%) versus a 50bp cut (44.5%). 
• FOMC Minutes (Sep Meeting): Details from the meeting where the Fed cut rates by 25bps. Focus on the internal debate, the rationale for the dovish dot plot, and Miran’s dissent for a 50bp cut. 
• BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks: Commentary will be watched for reaction to LDP election results. 

THU (Oct 10): 

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (Sep Meeting): Details of the ECB’s discussion where they held rates but signaled a pause. 
• German Trade Balance (Aug): Trade data for Europe’s largest economy. 
• US Weekly Claims (TBC): Release may be delayed by government shutdown. 

FRI (Oct 11): 

• Canadian Employment Report (Sep): Key labor market data for Canada; another weak report would bolster BoC rate cut bets. 
• U.S. University of Michigan Sentiment (Oct Prelim.): One of the few major U.S. data points expected, it will offer an early read on how the shutdown is affecting consumer confidence.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

December gold surged again this week, rising 1.05% on Friday to settle at a new record high of $3,908.90/oz. The precious metal has now advanced for seven consecutive weeks, supported by classic safe-haven demand amid the US government shutdown. In stark contrast, crude oil prices tumbled, with WTI futures posting a weekly loss of over -7% to settle at $60.88/bbl, hitting 4-month lows on concerns that an OPEC+ meeting this weekend could lead to a significant increase in production.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	60.88	0.4	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	64.53	0.42	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3908.9	40.8	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1729	0.0016	Rate
USD/JPY	147.49	0.27	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04125	0.00035	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	122,750	1.41%	USD

In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar was choppy and ended the week with losses against major currencies, primarily due to the uncertainty and data delays caused by the government shutdown. The EUR/USD pair held firm above the 1.1700 level for the fifth straight day, trading in a consolidative pattern. The GBP/USD pair registered its first weekly gain in three, benefiting from broad dollar weakness and amid a deteriorating domestic outlook for the UK.

The most significant currency developments may come over the weekend, with the USD/JPY pair sensitive to the outcome of Japan’s LDP leadership election, where different candidates pose vastly different risks to the Yen’s direction. The USD/JPY pair lost momentum, dipping below 147.50 as the dollar weakened and political risk in Japan came into focus. U.S. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher on Friday but were lower for the week as a whole.