Closing Recap

The party on Wall Street continues, and the music is only getting louder. U.S. stocks surged to new all-time highs, led by a powerful rally in technology after a landmark OpenAI/AMD deal, as markets continued to shrug off a U.S. government shutdown; gold hit another record, oil gained, while the dollar was mixed and the Japanese Yen plunged on political developments. Even a warning from legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones about dot-com bubble similarities failed to faze investors, who continue to chase momentum with relentless fervor. In the currency markets, the Japanese Yen was the main story, plummeting across the board after a pro-stimulus candidate won the LDP leadership race, sending USD/JPY soaring above 150, while the U.S. dollar firmed despite ongoing shutdown concerns. 

Key Takeaways 

• New Record Highs: The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at new all-time highs, driven by a powerful rally in technology and small caps. 
• AMD/OpenAI Deal Ignites AI Rally: A new strategic partnership between AMD and OpenAI, where OpenAI will deploy AMD’s GPUs and take a 10% stake, sent AMD shares soaring 26% and ignited a broad rally in the AI ecosystem. 
• Government Shutdown Ignored: Markets showed no concern as the U.S. government shutdown entered its sixth day, focusing instead on positive corporate news and dovish Fed expectations. 
• Gold Surges to New All-Time Highs: Gold prices continued their torrid rally, with December futures soaring to a new record of $3,976.30 per ounce, fueled by shutdown fears, central bank buying, and expectations of Fed easing. 
• The Japanese Yen plunged, with USD/JPY gapping up over 200 pips to above 150, as markets reacted to the election of fiscally dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, signaling a continuation of “Abenomics”-style policies. 
• Bitcoin surged to a new record high above $126,000, driven by strong ETF inflows and the “debasement trade” narrative amid U.S. fiscal stress. 
• Oil Prices Gain: Crude oil prices rallied after OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase for November, allaying fears of a more dramatic hike. 

Market Overview

The U.S. stock market party raged on today, with major indices pushing to new record highs in a broad and powerful rally. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 all set new closing records as investor sentiment remained overwhelmingly bullish. The primary catalyst for today’s surge was another major development in the AI space. AMD announced a landmark strategic partnership with OpenAI, which will see OpenAI deploy AMD’s GPUs for its next-generation AI infrastructure and take a 10% stake in the chipmaker. The news sent AMD shares skyrocketing 26% and created a powerful tailwind for the entire technology sector and broader market.

Index	Last	Change	% Change
S&P 500	6740	24.5	0.0036
Nasdaq	22941	161.16	0.0071
Dow Jones	46694	-63.31	-0.0014
Russell 2000	2486	10.18	0.0041

Investors completely shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown, now in its sixth day, and the resulting delay of key economic data. The prevailing market view seems to be that any economic disruption will only reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to continue its interest rate cutting cycle. This was a day of pure momentum, with investors chasing the “hot” themes of AI, semiconductors, crypto, and power/nuclear stocks. Even cautious commentary from legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones, who noted similarities between the current market and the 1999 dot-com bubble, failed to dampen the bullish mood. 

Elsewhere, China’s markets remain closed for the Golden Week holiday. Overnight, Japanese markets saw a massive rally, with the Nikkei soaring nearly 5% to a record high after the election of pro-stimulus leader Sanae Takaichi, which also sent the Japanese Yen plunging. In other news, the World Bank raised its 2025 GDP forecast for China, citing a less damaging impact from the trade war than previously anticipated.

Economic Calendar

With the U.S. shutdown ongoing, there were no official data releases. The key data point from the overnight session came from Germany, and it was deeply negative. 

• German Industrial Orders (Aug): Plunged -0.8% month-over-month, a significant miss of the +1.1% consensus, with a worrying 6.4% decline in orders from the crucial automotive industry.

Today is another very quiet day on the economic calendar, with the U.S. shutdown ensuring no major data releases. The focus remains on central bank speakers. 

• NO U.S. DATA due to government shutdown. 
• Fed Speakers: Bostic (14:00 GMT), Bowman (14:05 GMT), Kashkari (15:30 GMT). 
• ECB President Lagarde Speaks (16:10 GMT).

Commodities, Treasuries and Currencies 

Gold prices surged to another new all-time high, with the December futures contract gaining $67.40 (+1.69%) to settle at $3,976.30 per ounce. The rally is being driven by a powerful combination of safe-haven demand from the U.S. government shutdown, strong central bank buying (China reported its 11th straight monthly increase), and high expectations of a dovish Fed. Crude oil prices also rallied, with WTI gaining $0.81 (+1.33%) to settle at $61.69/bbl, after OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 bpd production increase for November, allaying fears of a larger supply hike. 

Asset	Change	Unit	Last
WTI Crude	0.81	USD/bbl	61.69
Gold	67.4	USD/oz	3976.3
EUR/USD	-0.003	USD	1.1711
USD/JPY	2.74	JPY	150.18
US 10-Yr Yield	+4.5 bps	%	0.04163

In the currency markets, the Japanese Yen was the biggest story, plunging at the market open after the election of pro-stimulus Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The currency market is being driven by powerful, divergent themes: a political repricing in Japan and fresh instability in Europe. 

• USD/JPY: The election of pro-stimulus Takaichi in Japan has been a game-changer. The pair gapped up over the weekend and continued to surge, breaking decisively above the key 150.00 level. With the market now pushing back expectations for a BoJ rate hike to December or even 2026, the path of least resistance is for further Yen weakness, though Japanese officials have begun verbal intervention, stating they will “monitor for excess fluctuations.” 
• EUR/USD: The Euro is under significant selling pressure, trading below 1.1700 after the French Prime Minister’s resignation sparked fresh political turmoil. This adds to the headwinds from a dovish ECB and weak German data. Large options expiries today create a potential battleground, with $2.6B at the 1.1650 strike and $1.8B at 1.1750, which could act as bookends for the session.
• GBP/USD: Sterling is holding its ground better than the Euro, trading near 1.3450. The pair is benefiting from capital outflows from the Euro (EUR/GBP weakness) but is still capped by broad U.S. Dollar strength.

U.S. Treasury yields were higher in early trading, with the 10-year yield up about 4.5 basis points to 4.163%, as the risk-on mood from Japan weighed on bond prices. Bitcoin surged to a new record high above $126,000, benefiting from strong ETF inflows and its appeal as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.

Looking Ahead 

The market will continue to be driven by political headlines from both Japan and the U.S. The formation of Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet and her initial policy pronouncements will be critical for the Yen and Japanese markets. In the U.S., any signs of a breakthrough or further entrenchment in the government shutdown negotiations will be the primary focus. The rally, particularly in names like AMD and Nvidia, is becoming parabolic. While the trend is strong, traders should be mindful of Paul Tudor Jones’s warning about late-1999 style market froth. 

The precious metal is within touching distance of the major psychological milestone of $4,000. The momentum is extremely strong, but the move is becoming very extended, and a short-term pullback would not be surprising. The political instability in France is a significant new headwind for the Euro. Watch for any signs of deepening crisis, which could put further pressure on EUR/USD and favor the bears targeting the 1.1650 options expiry. USD/JPY above 150.00 is the most important level in FX right now. A sustained hold above this major psychological barrier would confirm a new, higher trading range, but the risk of more forceful verbal (or even physical) intervention from Japanese officials is now significantly elevated. With official U.S. economic data on hold, commentary from the heavy slate of Fed and ECB speakers this week will take on even greater importance for guiding market expectations.