{"id":5378,"date":"2025-12-20T09:56:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T09:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/getleveraged.com\/?post_type=reviews&#038;p=5378"},"modified":"2025-12-20T09:56:45","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T09:56:45","slug":"20-12-25","status":"publish","type":"reviews","link":"https:\/\/getleveraged.com\/uz\/reviews\/20-12-25\/","title":{"rendered":"20.12.25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Closing Recap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. stocks finished the week on a high note, shaking off a rocky start to stage a strong Friday rally. The &laquo;Santa Claus Rally&raquo; narrative took center stage as the S&amp;P 500 (+0.88%) and Nasdaq (+1.31%) recovered from mid-week volatility triggered by rumors of Oracle\/OpenAI delays. Despite a 10% drop in Nike (NKE) following earnings, broader market breadth was robust (9:5 favoring advancers), fueled by cooler CPI data and &laquo;window dressing&raquo; from fund managers closing out 2025. The Fear &amp; Greed Index shifted from &laquo;Fear&raquo; back to &laquo;Neutral&raquo; (46\/100), suggesting sentiment is stabilizing just in time for the holiday window.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stocks Recover to Finish Strong: After a rocky start driven by earnings jitters (Nike, FedEx), U.S. stocks staged a late-week recovery. The S&amp;P 500 (+0.88%) and Nasdaq (+1.31%) both posted gains, with the S&amp;P closing within 25 points of its all-time high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Santa Rally Signal: History favors the bulls; the S&amp;P 500 has never posted three consecutive negative &laquo;Santa Rally&raquo; periods in 56 years. The window officially opens next week.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Oracle Scare: Tech wobbled mid-week on a Bloomberg report (later denied) of OpenAI data center delays, but buyers stepped in Friday.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BOJ Hikes, Yen Dives: The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75% (highest in 30 years), yet the Yen weakened sharply (USD\/JPY +1.21% to 157.72) on a &laquo;dovish hike&raquo; signal, as markets digest the narrowing rate gap between the US and Japan.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Silver Super-Spike: Silver is ending 2025 in a frenzy, pushing into the $67\/oz range (+1.97 Friday) amid a tight physical market and rate cut bets. The metal is being driven by Fed cut bets, tight physical supply, and massive ETF inflows, continuing its historic outperformance of gold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump on Rates: President-elect Trump stated interest rates should be &laquo;1% or lower,&raquo; floating Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as potential Fed Chair picks.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bitcoin Repair Mode: After volatility around the CPI release, Bitcoin stabilized near $88,000, with analysts at Citi projecting a potential rise to $143,000 over the next 12 months despite the recent bear market trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oil Geopolitics: WTI Crude climbed to $56.52 as the US imposed a blockade on Venezuelan tankers, adding a geopolitical risk premium.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK Weakness: GBP\/USD slipped below 1.3400 after UK Retail Sales missed estimates, signaling the BoE rate cut was justified.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Week Ahead Focus &#8211; The Holiday Lull: A shortened holiday week features the US Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate (Tue) and Tokyo CPI (Fri), but liquidity will dry up significantly as traders break for Christmas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Looking Ahead&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The &laquo;vibe&raquo; for next week is defined by the &laquo;Santa Claus Rally&raquo; phenomenon. We are entering the statistically strongest window of the year (last 5 trading days of Dec + first 2 of Jan). With the S&amp;P 500 up +15% YTD, institutional &laquo;window dressing&raquo; is in full effect\u2014fund managers need to show they own the winners. However, liquidity will be critically thin due to the holiday shortened week (Markets closed Dec 25). This creates a &laquo;Flash Crash&raquo; risk environment where headlines regarding the US\/Venezuela naval blockade or AI valuation jitters could cause outsized moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weekly Market Overview Narrative: The Bulls Are In Control Heading Into Christmas&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The bulls successfully defended the trend this week, shaking off early wobbles from disappointing guidance by Nike and FedEx. By Friday, the &laquo;Santa Rally&raquo; narrative took hold, driven by institutional window dressing and a &laquo;Fear of Missing Out&raquo; (FOMO) as the S&amp;P 500 approaches its record highs. The index has now risen for 9 of the last 10 days, fueled by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates in 2026 to support a softening labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Index<\/td><td>Last Price<\/td><td>Daily Change<\/td><td>Daily Change %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DJ Industrials<\/td><td>48135<\/td><td>182.73<\/td><td>0.0038<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500<\/td><td>6835<\/td><td>59.95<\/td><td>0.0088<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nasdaq<\/td><td>23308<\/td><td>301.26<\/td><td>0.0131<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Russell 2000<\/td><td>2529<\/td><td>21.58<\/td><td>0.0086<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sentiment has shifted remarkably from &laquo;Extreme Fear&raquo; just last month to &laquo;Neutral\/Greed&raquo; today. With retail asset allocation in stocks at 20-year highs (approx. 70%), the market is positioned aggressively. While 2026 is historically a weaker year in the Presidential cycle (&laquo;Year 2&raquo;), Goldman Sachs remains constructive, forecasting a 13-15% return driven by earnings growth. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher, provided liquidity conditions don&#8217;t trigger a flash crash during the holiday lull.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic Data Calendar (Week of Dec 22)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The final full week of the year is shortened by the Christmas holiday. Calendar A holiday-shortened week with a focus on delayed US GDP data and Japanese inflation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MON (Dec 22): UK GDP &amp; China Policy&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Event: UK Q3 GDP (Final).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Context: After weak retail sales, a GDP miss could further pressure the Pound. Also, watch China&#8217;s National People&#8217;s Congress (Dec 22-27) for stimulus\/trade law updates.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK Q3 GDP (Final): A final look at British economic growth, expected to confirm a sluggish 0.1% QoQ expansion.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China NPC Standing Committee: A week-long meeting begins, potentially offering clues on legislation regarding trade and national planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>TUE (Dec 23): US GDP &amp; RBA Minutes&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Event: US Q3 GDP (2nd Estimate) &amp; Durable Goods.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expectation: GDP annualized growth of 3.2%.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Context: This is the last major US data point of the year. Any deviation from the &laquo;Soft Landing&raquo; narrative (3.2%) will move markets in thin liquidity.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RBA Meeting Minutes: Traders will look for clues on the RBA&#8217;s pivot strategy for 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>WED (Dec 24): Christmas Eve&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US Markets Close Early: Stock and bond markets will close early for Christmas Eve (1:00 PM ET).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Liquidity will be non-existent.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>THU (Dec 25): Christmas Day&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Christmas Day: Markets Closed Globally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BOJ Governor Ueda speaks (risk for JPY crosses). Any hawkish comments could inject volatility into thin holiday markets for the Yen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>FRI (Dec 26): Tokyo Inflation (Boxing Day)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Event: Tokyo CPI (Dec). Expectation: 2.7%.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Context: Following the BOJ rate hike, hot inflation data here could arrest the Yen&#8217;s recent slide.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tokyo CPI (Dec): A critical release for the Yen. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.7%, but a hot print could fuel bets on further BoJ hikes in Q1 2026.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan Industrial Production\/Retail Sales: A data dump assessing the health of the Japanese economy post-stimulus announcement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Asset Class Spotlight: Commodities, Currencies, Crypto &amp; Treasuries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In commodities, Silver was the undisputed star, pushing into the $67 range. Silver has decoupled from the pack, entering a parabolic &#8216;new regime&#8217; at $67\/oz. It is being driven by a perfect storm of ETF flows, Fed cut bets, and tight physical supply. Gold also shone, rising 0.52% to $4,387, supported by the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan tankers and continued central bank buying. Gold also found support from implied 2026 rate cut expectations (the market currently sees rates at ~3.03% by Dec &#8217;26). WTI Crude rose nearly 1% to $56.52, finding a floor on geopolitical tensions despite broader demand concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Asset<\/td><td>Last Level<\/td><td>Friday\u2019s Change<\/td><td>Unit \/ % Change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTI Crude<\/td><td>56.52<\/td><td>0.52<\/td><td>USD\/bbl (+0.93%)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brent Crude<\/td><td>60.47<\/td><td>0.65<\/td><td>USD\/bbl (+1.09%)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gold (Feb)<\/td><td>4387.3<\/td><td>22.8<\/td><td>USD\/oz (+0.52%)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Silver<\/td><td>67.00+<\/td><td>1.97<\/td><td>USD\/oz (Record Highs)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EUR\/USD<\/td><td>1.1714<\/td><td>-0.0015<\/td><td>Rate (-0.26% Wk)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>USD\/JPY<\/td><td>157.66<\/td><td>2.01<\/td><td>Rate (+1.21%)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10-Year Note<\/td><td>0.04151<\/td><td>0.035<\/td><td>Yield (%)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bitcoin<\/td><td>88207<\/td><td>0.007<\/td><td>USD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The currency market was defined by the Bank of Japan&#8217;s hawkish move and the resulting volatility in the Yen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USD\/JPY: The move of the week. The pair experienced a volatile week, initially breaking below 155.00 before surging to a one-month high of 157.72 following the BoJ&#8217;s rate hike to 0.75%. The pair closed the week up significantly (+1.21%). Despite the BOJ hiking rates to 0.75% (a hawkish move on paper), the pair jumped to 157.72. While the hike supports the Yen fundamentally, the &laquo;buy the rumor, sell the fact&raquo; reaction combined with U.S. economic resilience kept the pair elevated. Yields in Japan rose, but the Yen collapsed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00a0EUR\/USD: The pair snapped a three-week winning streak, closing down 0.26% at 1.1714. The Euro struggled after the ECB held rates steady but offered no hawkish surprises, while U.S. inflation data (CPI) came in cooler than expected at 2.7%, creating a mixed picture for the dollar.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GBP\/USD: Sterling finished effectively flat (+0.04%) at 1.3376. The Pound was weighed down by disappointing Retail Sales data (-0.1% MoM), which highlighted the cost-of-living squeeze even after the Bank of England&#8217;s recent rate cut.The BoE cut rates (5-4 vote), and subsequent weak Retail Sales data has capped upside. The divergence between a cutting BoE and a &laquo;pause-likely&raquo; Fed is weighing on the pair.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin remains the wildcard. After plummeting earlier in the month, it has found stability around $88,000. Institutional interest remains, but the asset is currently decoupling from the broader risk-on rally in equities as it digests the recent $1 trillion market wipeout. The $23B crypto options expiry has passed, which often clears the deck for a directional move. With liquidity thinning, Bitcoin is susceptible to macro headlines. On the bond side, the 10-year yield rose to 4.151%, signaling that the bond market isn&#8217;t fully buying the &laquo;aggressive cuts&raquo; narrative from the Trump camp yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to Watch Next Week&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The &laquo;Santa Rally&raquo; Trade: The stats are overwhelming: The S&amp;P 500 has never had three consecutive red Santa windows. With 2023 and 2024 being red, 2025 is statistically primed for green. The strategy is Trend Following\u2014do not try to be a hero and short the indices this week. Watch for end-of-quarter &laquo;window dressing&raquo; to bid up year-to-date winners (AI &amp; Semis).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The &laquo;Santa Rally&raquo; Execution: With institutional managers looking to &laquo;window dress&raquo; their portfolios before year-end, the bias is to the upside. However, traders should be wary of low-volume &laquo;melt-ups&raquo; or sudden reversals. The statistical anomaly suggests a green finish to the year is highly probable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Liquidity Vacuum (Flash Crash Risk): With most desks empty for Christmas, volume will be low. This makes the market dangerous. Headlines regarding the US\/Venezuela blockade could trigger outsized moves in Oil and Gold. If WTI spikes, it could spook the equity market in a low-volume environment.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Yen Reversal? The market reaction to the BOJ hike (selling the Yen) was extreme. At 157.66, USD\/JPY is approaching the psychological 160.00 danger zone. Watch for any comments from Japanese officials regarding intervention, or for Friday&#8217;s Tokyo CPI to surprise to the upside, which could trigger a sharp reversal of Friday&#8217;s Yen weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2026 Positioning: As the week winds down, attention will shift entirely to 2026 themes: The Supreme Court tariff ruling in January and President Trump&#8217;s pick for Fed Chair. These are the twin pillars of uncertainty that will define Q1.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Closing Recap U.S. stocks finished the week on a high note, shaking off a rocky start to stage a strong Friday rally. The &laquo;Santa Claus Rally&raquo; narrative took center stage as the S&amp;P 500 (+0.88%) and Nasdaq (+1.31%) recovered from mid-week volatility triggered by rumors of Oracle\/OpenAI delays. Despite a 10% drop in Nike (NKE)\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","review_category":[5],"class_list":["post-5378","reviews","type-reviews","status-publish","hentry","review_category-weekly-reviews"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Financial Market Review - 20.12.25<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Leveraged&#039;s Financial Market Review for 20.12.25, your concise summary of recent market events and a look ahead at what\u2019s coming next\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/getleveraged.com\/uz\/reviews\/20-12-25\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uz_UZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Financial Market Review - 20.12.25\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Leveraged&#039;s Financial Market Review for 20.12.25, your concise summary of recent market events and a look ahead at what\u2019s coming next\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/getleveraged.com\/uz\/reviews\/20-12-25\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Leveraged\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/get_leveraged.financial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-20T09:56:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@get_leveraged\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"8 daqiqa\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/getleveraged.com\\\/uz\\\/reviews\\\/20-12-25\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/getleveraged.com\\\/uz\\\/reviews\\\/20-12-25\\\/\",\"name\":\"Financial Market Review - 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