Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher after a late-day push, led again by large-cap tech, while Treasury yields and the dollar eased slightly from recent highs, and gold prices edged up. Despite the positive headline index moves, market breadth was negative, with declining stocks outpacing advancers on the NYSE. 

Key Takeaways

• Late-Day Bounce: Major indices recovered from earlier weakness to close mostly positive, extending Monday’s gains.
• Nasdaq Leads, Russell Lags: Strength in mega-cap tech (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA) boosted the Nasdaq, while small caps underperformed.
• Easing Tariff Fears Persist: Sentiment continued to be supported by hopes for a less severe outcome regarding the upcoming April 2nd tariff deadline.
• Weak Consumer Data: A sharp drop in Consumer Confidence, particularly expectations, weighed on sentiment earlier in the session.
• Yields & Dollar Retreat: Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar pulled back slightly after recent gains, reacting partly to weaker economic data.
• VIX Continues Decline: Market volatility expectations eased further, with the VIX down significantly over the week.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets displayed resilience, shaking off early weakness attributed to disappointing economic data to close mostly in positive territory. The S&P 500 secured its third consecutive day of gains, maintaining its position above the key 200-day moving average support level around 5,750. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, driven by renewed strength in several mega-cap technology stocks. This continued bounce follows significant pullbacks from recent highs, fueled by easing fears surrounding potential reciprocal tariffs expected on April 2nd, building on White House commentary from the previous day. Additionally, recent signals from the Federal Reserve indicating concern over slowing U.S. growth have provided a subtle boost to market sentiment. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	4.18	0.0001	42587
S&P 500	9.05	0.0016	5776
Nasdaq	83.26	0.0046	18271
Russell 2000	-13.99	-0.0066	2095

The release of weaker-than-anticipated economic data, particularly a sharp decline in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index to its lowest level since early 2021, initially dampened spirits. The plunge in the expectations component to a 12-year low highlighted growing household concerns. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey also disappointed. This weaker data likely contributed to the pullback in Treasury yields later in the day.

Economic Data: 

The economic data released today painted a largely disappointing picture, particularly concerning consumer sentiment and regional manufacturing activity, potentially contributing to the afternoon pullback in Treasury yields. 

• Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s March Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 92.9, missing the consensus estimate of 94.0 and down significantly from February’s 98.3. This marks the lowest reading since January 2021.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing: The broader regional business conditions index fell to -14.0. While the prices paid component increased (+3.75% vs. +2.23% prior), key activity indicators like shipments (-7 vs. +12 prior) and employment (-1 vs. +9 prior) declined.
• Wholesale Inventories/Sales (Jan): Wholesale inventories growth was unrevised at +0.8% for January. However, wholesale sales were revised lower to -1.5% (from -1.3%), keeping the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.33.
• Home Prices (Jan – S&P Case-Shiller): January 20-metro area home prices rose +4.7% year-over-year, slightly missing the +4.8% consensus but accelerating from December’s +4.5% pace.
• New Home Sales (Feb): Sales of new single-family homes reached an annualized rate of 676K units in February, slightly missing the 679K consensus but up from January’s 664K rate.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices found support, rising 0.34% as the dollar and yields eased. Oil prices finished slightly lower, with WTI crude dipping marginally. Prices were caught between reports of a potential truce between Ukraine and Russia impacting energy infrastructure and the ongoing prospect of tighter supply due to threatened U.S. tariffs related to Venezuelan oil purchases. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated slightly after a multi-day rally, reacting to tariff uncertainty and weaker domestic data. 

Treasury yields ended the day lower after initially rising; the 10-year yield settled around 4.30% after touching 4.37% earlier. The pullback was aided by the weak economic reports and solid demand at the Treasury’s 2-year note auction.

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-0.11	69
Brent	0.02	73.02
Gold	10.3	3025.9
EUR/USD	0.0012	1.0812
USD/JPY	-0.92	149.77

Looking Ahead 

Market attention remains fixed on the approaching April 2nd tariff deadline and any further clarification on the scope of the measures. Upcoming economic data releases will continue to be scrutinized for their impact on growth expectations and potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments. End-of-quarter positioning may also influence trading dynamics in the coming sessions.