Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks declined sharply, with the Nasdaq bearing the brunt of the sell-off amid persistent tariff concerns and cautious Fed commentary; Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar climbed, while oil prices gained on inventory data, and gold eased slightly. 

Key Takeaways 

• Broad Stock Sell-off: Equities finished firmly lower, reversing early attempts to stabilize, with the Nasdaq down over 2%. 
• Tariff Uncertainty Dominates: Worries about upcoming tariffs and their potential economic impact, highlighted by Goldman Sachs lowering its S&P 500 target, weighed heavily on sentiment. 
• Fed Commentary Adds Caution: Remarks from Fed’s Kashkari, while acknowledging progress on inflation, were perceived as insufficiently dovish for a market eager for rate cuts. 
• Risk-Off Tone: Market breadth was negative, and the Fear & Greed Index remained in “Fear” territory. 
• Durable Goods Beat: A stronger-than-expected Durable Goods report offered a brief positive economic signal but failed to sustain market optimism. 
• Debt Ceiling Warning: The CBO issued a forecast warning that the U.S. could risk default as early as August without Congressional action on the debt ceiling. 
• Oil Rises, Gold Dips: Crude oil gained following an unexpected inventory draw, while gold pulled back slightly amid dollar strength but held near recent highs. 
• Yields and Dollar Higher: Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose, reflecting risk aversion and policy uncertainty. 

Market Overview 

It was a challenging day for U.S. equities, characterized by failed recovery attempts and a prevailing risk-off sentiment. After initial fluctuations, markets trended lower, particularly following comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. While acknowledging progress on inflation and suggesting rates could fall over the next couple of years, his emphasis on remaining work and policy uncertainty didn’t satisfy a market seemingly impatient for immediate easing signals.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-132.71	-0.31%	42,454
S&P 500	-64.45	-1.12%	5,712
Nasdaq	-372.84	-2.04%	17,899
Russell 2000	-21.6	-1.03%	2,073

The negative tone was amplified by Goldman Sachs reducing its year-end S&P 500 target, explicitly citing the anticipated negative GDP impact from rising U.S. tariff rates. Market breadth confirmed the negative sentiment, with decliners outpacing advancers and most S&P sectors finishing in the red. 

The Fear & Greed Index continued to signal caution. Even a better-than-expected report on February Durable Goods Orders.Interestingly, amidst the gloom, the ratio of insider buying to selling reportedly increased in March, potentially suggesting some underlying corporate confidence, though this was overshadowed by the day’s dominant negative themes. Historical seasonal patterns suggesting strength in early April were noted but caveated by the unusual overhang of the current tariff situation.

Economic Data

Economic releases today presented a mixed picture, with a positive surprise in durable goods offset by a stark warning regarding the U.S. debt ceiling.

• Debt Ceiling Forecast (CBO): The Congressional Budget Office projected that the U.S. government could risk defaulting on its debt obligations as soon as August or September 2025 if Congress does not raise the $36.6 trillion debt ceiling. 
• Durable Goods Orders (Feb): Headline orders rose +0.9%, significantly beating the consensus forecast of -1.0%, though down from January’s strong +3.3%. Excluding transportation, orders were up +0.7% (vs. +0.2% consensus). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold futures eased slightly, settling down 0.11%, likely due to profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar. However, prices remained near record levels, supported by underlying safe-haven demand stemming from tariff uncertainty, GDP growth concerns highlighted by weak consumer confidence earlier in the week, and the looming April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. WTI crude oil futures gained 0.94%, closing near $69.65/bbl. The rise was primarily driven by an unexpected draw in U.S. crude inventories as refinery activity increased, coupled with draws in gasoline and distillates. 

The positive Durable Goods report also lent support by suggesting potentially better demand, countering ongoing tariff-related demand risks. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and other currencies amid the general uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and trade policy, with the euro dropping towards $1.0745. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield moving back towards 4.34%, reflecting the risk-off mood and policy uncertainties.

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	0.65	69.65
Brent	0.77	73.79
Gold	-3.4	3022.5
EUR/USD	-0.0047	1.0744
USD/JPY	0.62	150.52
10-Year Note	0.034	0.04342

Looking Ahead

Investor focus sharpens on upcoming key economic data points: GDP data tomorrow and the crucial PCE inflation reading on Friday. These releases will be vital in shaping expectations for economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions. The April 2nd tariff deadline remains a significant overhang, likely continuing to influence market sentiment and volatility. Developments surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations will also be closely monitored.