Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mixed after an exceptionally volatile session driven by false tariff pause rumors and subsequent threats of massive new tariffs on China; Treasury yields whipsawed dramatically higher from lows, while oil and gold prices fell.

Key Takeaways 

• Extreme Volatility: Markets experienced wild swings: deep overnight losses, a massive intraday rally on false reports, and another sharp drop on renewed tariff threats. 
• False Tariff Pause Rumor: Unconfirmed (and later denied) reports of a potential 90-day tariff pause fueled a powerful, albeit temporary, market surge mid-day. 
• Trump Threatens MORE China Tariffs: President Trump vowed an additional 50% tariff on China effective April 9th if Beijing doesn’t withdraw its recent 34% retaliatory tariffs by tomorrow. 
• Mixed Close Belies Chaos: The Nasdaq eked out a small gain, while the Dow and Russell 2000 closed firmly lower, masking huge intraday price ranges. 
• Treasury Yield Whipsaw: The 10-year Treasury yield experienced an extraordinary intraday range, plunging to 3.88% lows before rocketing back to close near 4.21% highs. 
• VIX Elevated: Market volatility remained extremely high, with the VIX hovering near 50 after spiking above 60 overnight. 
• Oil & Gold Slump: Crude oil prices fell further, briefly dipping below $60, and gold prices experienced a sharp sell-off. 

Market Overview 

It was another day of gut-wrenching volatility for U.S. stocks, starting with significant declines mirroring the overnight carnage in global markets driven by ongoing tariff and recession fears. The session was defined by dramatic reversals fueled by conflicting headlines. A massive mid-morning rally erupted following unconfirmed reports, aired by CNBC and amplified elsewhere, suggesting the Trump administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. This sent indices soaring off their lows.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-349.26	-0.0091	37965
S&P 500	-11.83	-0.0023	5062
Nasdaq	15.48	0.001	15603
Russell 2000	-16.89	-0.0092	1810

However, the rally proved short-lived. The White House quickly labeled the pause reports “fake news.” Shortly after, President Trump himself took to Truth Social, not only confirming no pause but escalating tensions dramatically. He reacted fiercely to China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs (implemented in response to U.S. actions), threatening to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods effective April 9th if China does not withdraw its retaliation by tomorrow (April 8th). He also declared all trade talks with China terminated under those conditions. This threat sent markets plunging anew off their intraday highs. 

The sheer scale of the swings was staggering. The S&P 500, after falling sharply overnight, rallied an incredible 8.4% from its lows on the pause rumor, only to then drop 5.5% from those peaks after the denial and new threats. The Treasury market was equally chaotic, with the 10-year yield completing a massive 33-basis-point round trip from its morning lows near 3.88% to close near 4.21%. The VIX remained highly elevated, reflecting the extreme uncertainty. While President Trump touted falling prices and tariff revenues in earlier posts, his later threats solidified the market’s focus on escalating trade conflict.

Economic Data

• No major U.S. economic data releases were scheduled for today, keeping the market’s focus entirely on tariff developments and market sentiment.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Commodity prices broadly retreated amid escalating recession fears and specific trade threats. WTI crude oil fell over 2%, dipping below $60 intraday—its lowest level since 2021—before settling near $60.70. The decline was further pressured by intensified threats against China from former President Trump. Gold also suffered a significant setback, dropping over 2% (from above $3,000 to $2,973.60), failing to serve as a safe haven amidst market volatility and potential liquidation pressures. Treasury markets experienced extreme volatility. 

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-1.29	60.7
Brent	-1.37	64.21
Gold	-61.8	2973.6
EUR/USD	-0.0039	1.0916
USD/JPY	1.14	148.04
10-Year Note	0.219	0.0421

The 10-year yield plunged overnight to around 3.88%, then sharply reversed throughout the day, closing near session highs at approximately 4.21%. This movement was likely driven by an unwinding of panic bids and anticipation of upcoming supply. The U.S. dollar strengthened, particularly against the yen, reversing some of the prior risk-off dynamics. Bitcoin and Ethereum held relatively steady after experiencing declines over the weekend.

Looking Ahead 

All eyes are now on China’s response to President Trump’s ultimatum – will they withdraw their 34% retaliatory tariff by tomorrow’s deadline to avoid the threatened additional 50% levy? This decision point is paramount. The scheduled implementation of higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations remains set for Wednesday. The European Union’s proposed countermeasures add another layer to the global trade conflict. Beyond the immediate tariff drama, markets will look towards key inflation data (CPI/PPI) later this week and the beginning of Q1 earnings season on Friday, though these may be overshadowed if trade tensions remain at fever pitch. Expect continued extreme volatility.