Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher after an afternoon melt-up led by Technology and Energy, shaking off early weakness from disappointing manufacturing data; gold and oil surged on geopolitical concerns and a weaker dollar, while Treasury yields edged higher. 

Key Takeaways 

• Afternoon Rally Lifts Stocks: Major indices recovered from morning lows to close mostly positive, with the S&P 500 holding near 5,900. 
• Tech & Energy Lead Gains: Technology and Energy sectors were notable outperformers. 
• Weak Manufacturing Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI for May contracted further, missing expectations and weighing on sentiment early in the session. Construction spending also fell. 
• Tariff Deadline Looms: Trump administration set a firm July 8th deadline for finalizing trade deals, urging countries to submit best offers by Wednesday to avoid tariff reinstatement. 
• Gold & Oil Surge: Gold prices jumped nearly 2.5% on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. Oil rallied over 2.8% on Russia-Ukraine tensions and a less-than-feared OPEC+ output hike. 
• Dollar Weakens Further: The U.S. Dollar Index continued its decline, boosting commodity prices. 
• Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Path to Cuts: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee suggested rate cuts are possible once tariff uncertainty clears. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets started the new month with a day of lackluster trading that eventually resolved into a mostly positive, albeit unconvincing, close. After gapping lower in pre-market futures on renewed trade and geopolitical jitters, stocks spent most of the morning session pinned near the flatline, digesting weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data (ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted further in May) and a surprise drop in construction spending. This initially weighed on investor sentiment. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	35.41	0.0008	42305
S&P 500	24.25	0.0041	5935
Nasdaq	128.85	0.0067	19242
Russell 2000	3.88	0.0019	2070

However, as the day progressed, dip-buyers once again emerged, a pattern that has become familiar since the sharp rally off the mid-April lows. Technology and Energy sectors led an afternoon “melt-up,” pushing major averages into positive territory. News that the Trump administration has set a firm July 8th deadline for finalizing trade deals, urging countries to submit their best offers by Wednesday to avoid the reinstatement of high tariffs, added a layer of urgency to the trade narrative.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also offered a somewhat dovish perspective, suggesting that once the “dirt in the air” from tariff uncertainty clears, the Fed could be in a position to lower interest rates. U.S. steel stocks were a pocket of strength after President Trump indicated plans to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Despite the afternoon recovery, overall market action felt subdued, with investors likely positioning ahead of a busy week of economic data and ongoing trade developments.

Economic Calendar

Yesterday’s U.S. economic calendar featured disappointing manufacturing and construction spending data: 

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): 48.5 (Below 49.3 consensus, vs. 48.7 April). Prices Paid 69.4 (vs. 69.8 April). New Orders 47.6 (vs. 47.2 April). Employment 46.8 (vs. 46.5 April). 
• Construction Spending M/M (Apr): -0.4% (vs. +0.3% consensus, vs. -0.8% March). Private -0.7%, Public +0.4%. 
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May-Final): 52.0 (vs. 52.3 flash). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices surged impressively, with August futures climbing $81.80 (+2.47%) to settle at $3,397.20 per ounce, reaching its highest level in over three weeks. The rally was driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, renewed geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine), economic uncertainty fueled by weak manufacturing data, and persistent safe-haven demand. Crude oil prices also rallied strongly, with WTI gaining $1.73 (+2.85%) to settle at $62.52/bbl. The gains were attributed to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an OPEC+ production hike that was perceived by some as less aggressive than feared, helping to offset broader demand concerns. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5%, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. Treasury yields edged slightly higher after early session dips, with the 10-year yield finishing around 4.446%.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	1.73	USD/bbl	62.52
Brent	1.85	USD/bbl	64.63
Gold	81.8	USD/oz	3397.2
EUR/USD	0.0096	USD	1.1443
USD/JPY	-1.33	JPY	142.69
10-Year Note	0.028	%	0.04446

Looking Ahead 

The market will continue to be highly sensitive to any developments regarding trade negotiations as the July 8th deadline approaches. Economic data this week remains relatively light, but investors will be watching for any further signals on the health of the U.S. economy. Fed speaker commentary will also be monitored for clues on potential policy shifts, especially in light of Fed Goolsbee’s somewhat dovish remarks today. The performance of key sectors like Technology and Energy, which led today’s recovery, will also be important to watch.