Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks continued their impressive run, posting strong weekly gains to start June as investor “FOMO” returned, fueled by fading tariff concerns and a surprisingly strong May jobs report. Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, rebounding after a large sell-off, with broader market undercurrents stirred by a Trump-Musk feud and recession fears. 

Key Takeaways 

• Market Resiliency, Bitcoin Rebounds: Major US indices posted another week of gains (S&P 500 +1.5%). Bitcoin rebounded to around $103.8K after a $1.47B profit-taking sell-off from $102K, amidst market jitters caused by a Trump-Musk feud and recessionary concerns. 
• Strong May Jobs Report Surprises: Nonfarm Payrolls rose +177k, beating expectations and boosting sentiment despite downward revisions to prior months. 
• Yields Spike, Dollar Rises on Jobs Data: Strong jobs data pushed Treasury yields sharply higher and strengthened the US Dollar, dampening hopes for a summer Fed rate cut. 
• Tariff Concerns Fade, For Now: Market concerns over tariffs have significantly diminished over the past six weeks, contributing to the equity rally. 
• Volatility Index (VIX) Plummets: The VIX dropped over 9% to March lows below 17, indicating a significant decrease in market fear. 
• Gold Slips Friday, Up Weekly: Gold prices declined on Friday but still finished the week higher. 
• Oil Prices Rise: WTI and Brent crude posted weekly gains. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: Crucial US CPI (Wed), Apple’s WWDC (Mon), and important UK economic data (Jobs Tue, GDP Thu, Spending Review Wed) are the main events to watch. 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s primary focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, due on Wednesday. This report will be critical in assessing whether the tariffs imposed in April are beginning to filter through to consumer prices and will heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Comments from Fed officials, including Goolsbee, suggest this could be a pivotal inflation reading. Also on Monday, Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) kicks off, with significant attention on any AI-related announcements and updates to its software platforms, especially given recent stock underperformance and tariff pressures on its hardware business. 

The UK economic calendar is also packed, featuring the April Jobs Report (Tuesday), where wage growth will be a key focus, the April GDP figures (Thursday), which are expected to show a contraction after a strong Q1, and a Spending Review by Chancellor Reeves (Wednesday) outlining departmental budgets and infrastructure investment plans. Other important global data includes Chinese inflation and trade balance figures (Monday), a revised look at Japanese Q1 GDP (Monday), and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index (Monday).

Market Overview 

The astonishing resiliency of the U.S. stock market continued unabated, with major averages notching another week of solid gains to kick off the new month. Investor sentiment has clearly shifted back towards “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out) as concerns over tariffs, which plagued markets in April, have significantly receded over the past six weeks. This renewed optimism has propelled the S&P 500 to the cusp of the psychologically important 6,000 level. Friday’s trading saw a boost early on from a stronger-than-expected May Nonfarm Payrolls report. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	42762	442.88	0.0105	0.0117
S&P 500	6000	61.02	0.0103	0.015
Nasdaq	19529	231.5	0.012	0.0218
Russell 2000	2132	34.89	0.0166

The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, also saw considerable activity. After a significant sell-day where long-term holders (LTHs) reportedly locked in $1.47 billion in profits, pushing prices down to around $102K, Bitcoin rebounded to approximately $103,800. This volatility occurred against a backdrop of increased market uncertainty, stirred by a public feud between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, ongoing tariff discussions, and some weaker jobs data earlier in the week (ADP) that rekindled recession fears. 

Back in traditional markets, fear, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), has once again dissipated, with the VIX falling sharply. The strong jobs report had a significant impact on bond markets, causing Treasury yields to spike and pushing out expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this summer. The U.S. dollar also strengthened.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of June 9th) 

MON (Jun 10): 

• Apple WWDC Begins (13:00EDT/18:00BST): Focus on AI strategy, iOS/macOS updates, potential new features for AirPods, Messages, Music, etc. 
• Japanese GDP (Q1 – Revised): Updated look at first-quarter growth. 
• Chinese Inflation (CPI & PPI – May), Trade Balance (May): Key data from China. 
• EZ Sentix Investor Confidence (Jun): Eurozone sentiment indicator. 
• US Employment Trends (May): Labor market indicator. 

TUE (Jun 11):

• UK Jobs Report (Apr – ILO Unemployment & Avg. Earnings): Unemployment exp. 4.6% (from 4.5%), 3M/YY headline wage growth exp. steady at 5.5%. Data quality issues persist, but watched for signs of labor market cooling. 

WED (Jun 12): 

• US CPI (May): Headline exp. +0.2% M/M (unch.), Core exp. +0.3% M/M (from +0.2%). Crucial for Fed policy; tariff impacts a key watchpoint. Fed Beige Book noted tariff cost pass-through. 
• UK Spending Review: Chancellor Reeves to announce departmental budgets; focus on infrastructure. 
• ECB Wage Tracker: Eurozone wage growth data. 

THU (Jun 13): 

• UK GDP (Apr): Monthly GDP exp. -0.1% M/M (from +0.2% in Mar). Q1 growth was strong (0.7% Q/Q) but potentially due to “erratic factors.” 
• US PPI (May): Producer price inflation. 
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Jun 8): Labor market indicator. 

FRI (Jun 14): 

• French/Spanish Final CPI (May): Final inflation readings. 
• EZ Trade Balance (Apr): Eurozone trade figures. 
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun – Prelim.): Consumer mood and inflation expectations. 
• Quad Witching: Simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures; can lead to increased trading volume and volatility. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Treasury yields were the big story on Friday, spiking after the stronger-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report. The 10-year yield jumped more than 13 bps from its morning lows to end around 4.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose against major currencies. August gold prices declined on Friday, settling around $3,346/oz, but managed to finish the week higher. Oil prices finished the week higher, with WTI crude gaining 1.91% on Friday to settle at $64.58/bbl. Bitcoin, after a significant sell-off to around $102K where long-term holders took $1.47B in profits, rebounded to $103.8K.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	64.58	1.21	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	66.47	1.13	USD/bbl
Gold (Aug Fut.)	3356.3	-18.5	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1393	-0.0051	Rate
USD/JPY	144.84	1.31	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04504	0.00109	Yield (%)