Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures are little changed, holding near recent highs as investors await the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations in London and digest a strong jobs report from Friday; global markets are mixed, oil is steady, gold is down slightly, and Treasury yields have eased. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Flat Ahead of Trade Talks: Equities indicate a muted open as markets pause after significant gains last week, with U.S.-China trade talks in London a key focus. 
• Strong Jobs Report Boosted Sentiment: Friday’s robust May Non-Farm Payrolls report (+139K jobs) eased economic slowdown fears. 
• Market Nears All-Time Highs: The S&P 500 is less than 2.5% from its record high, and the Nasdaq 100 is just 2% shy, following a remarkable recovery from April lows. 
• Risk-On Sentiment Persists: Positive equity momentum and strong technicals support the current risk-on environment. 
• Oil Steadies, Gold Eases: Crude oil prices are stable after a weekly surge, while gold is pulling back slightly.
• Dollar Mixed, Yields Dip: The U.S. dollar shows mixed performance, while Treasury yields have eased. 
• China Inflation Data Mixed: China’s May CPI fell for a fourth month, while PPI deflation sharpened, though core CPI rose. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are poised for a relatively flat open as a new trading week begins, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of crucial U.S.-China trade negotiations taking place in London today. This follows a week of solid gains for U.S. stocks, driven by a surprisingly strong May Non-Farm Payrolls report that added 139,000 jobs, significantly easing concerns about an economic slowdown that had been fueled by weaker data points earlier in the month. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have staged an impressive recovery from their April lows, now trading within striking distance of their all-time highs, reflecting a significant improvement in market sentiment. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	23	0.0005	42832
S&P 500	3.25	0.0006	6010
Nasdaq	-6.5	-0.0003	21783

The current risk-on mood is supported by positive equity momentum and technical strength above key pivot levels. However, the outcome of the ongoing trade talks will be a critical determinant of near-term market direction. While recent de-escalation hopes have fueled the rally, any signs of renewed friction could quickly reverse sentiment. Adding to the day’s focus, Apple (AAPL) kicks off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), an event closely watched for new product announcements and strategic direction that could impact the broader technology sector. 

Global markets presented a mixed picture overnight. Asian markets saw gains in Japan and Hong Kong, while mainland China edged lower following mixed inflation data (CPI fell again, PPI deflation deepened, but core CPI rose). European markets were slightly lower. Commodity prices are relatively stable, with oil holding near recent highs and gold easing slightly. Treasury yields have dipped. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem commented over the weekend that President Trump’s tariffs could boost inflation for “a quarter or two” and put “50-50” odds on them sparking sustained U.S. inflation.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar is relatively light, featuring employment trends and wholesale inventory data:

• 10:00 AM ET: Employment Trends for May 
• 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventory M/M for April 
• China Inflation (May – Reported Overnight): CPI: -0.1% y/y (vs. -0.2% est., -0.1% prior). Core CPI +0.6% y/y. PPI: -3.3% y/y (vs. -2.8% est., -2.7% prior). Sharpest fall since July 2022. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

Crude oil prices are steady to slightly higher in early trading, with WTI around $64.86/bbl, after a strong surge last week. The market awaits cues from the U.S.-China trade talks for potential impacts on global demand. Gold prices are down slightly, with spot gold around $3,336.50/oz (-0.10%), consolidating after recent volatility. The U.S. dollar is mixed, showing slight weakness against the Euro but strength against the Japanese Yen. Treasury yields have eased, with the 10-year yield down about 2.8 basis points to 4.482%, reflecting some caution ahead of the trade talks and upcoming economic data.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.28	USD/bbl	64.86
Brent	0.32	USD/bbl	66.79
Gold	-10.1	USD/oz	3336.5
EUR/USD	0.0029	USD	1.1423
USD/JPY	-0.77	JPY	144.09
10-Year Note	-0.028	%	0.04482

Looking Ahead 

The outcome and tone of the U.S.-China trade negotiations in London will be the primary driver of market sentiment today and in the near term. Any concrete agreements or, conversely, signs of renewed friction could lead to significant market moves. Apple’s WWDC will also be closely watched for announcements that could impact the tech sector. Later in the week, key U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) will provide further insights into price pressures and potential Federal Reserve policy direction. S&P Dow Jones Indices made no changes to the S&P 500 in its latest rebalance.