Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures point to a lower open as investors digest President Trump’s two-week delay on deciding U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, alongside a hawkish Fed stance and mixed global data; oil is steady, gold and silver are down, and the dollar is mixed ahead of key U.S. manufacturing data. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Dip After Juneteenth Holiday: Equities indicate a weaker start as U.S. markets reopen, reacting to ongoing Middle East tensions and recent Fed commentary.
• Trump Delays Israel-Iran Involvement Decision: President Trump postponed a decision on potential U.S. action in the Israel-Iran conflict for two weeks, providing some near-term market relief but maintaining underlying uncertainty. 
• Hawkish Fed Lingers: Markets continue to process the Fed’s recent meeting where rates were held steady, and the outlook for rate cuts in 2026 was trimmed, contrasting with easing by other central banks (SNB cut, BoE held). 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets mostly rose (Hang Seng +1.2%, Kospi +1.2%) on hopes the Middle East conflict might not immediately escalate further. European futures pointed lower. 
• Oil Steady, Precious Metals Fall: Crude oil is holding near $73 after a volatile week. Gold and silver are declining as immediate safe-haven demand wanes slightly, and the dollar shows some firmness. 
• Focus on Philly Fed & Retail Sales: Today’s key U.S. economic data includes the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Canadian Retail Sales. 
• Japan Core Inflation Rises: Japan’s May core inflation hit 3.7%, its highest since January 2023, adding to global inflation discussions.

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are set to open lower as traders return from the Juneteenth holiday, grappling with a complex mix of geopolitical uncertainty, central bank policy divergence, and mixed economic signals from around the globe. Overnight, markets found some temporary relief as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly postponed a decision on direct U.S. involvement in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict for at least two weeks. While this delay has calmed immediate fears of a wider conflagration, the underlying tensions remain extremely high after a week of military exchanges. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-44.14	-0.001	42171.66
S&P 500	-1.85	-0.0003	5980.87
Nasdaq	25.18	0.0013	19546.27

Investors are also still digesting the implications of recent central bank actions. The Federal Reserve, at its meeting on June 18th, maintained its hawkish stance, holding rates steady and even trimming its rate cut outlook for 2026, emphasizing the ongoing fight against inflation despite some signs of economic slowing. This contrasts with moves like the Swiss National Bank’s rate cut and the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates amidst a differing economic landscape. 

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, with Hong Kong and South Korea posting strong gains, as the delay in Trump’s decision provided some support. However, European futures are pointing to a weaker open. Today’s key U.S. economic release will be the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which will offer insights into regional factory activity. Canadian retail sales data will also be watched. Commodity markets are seeing oil prices hold relatively steady after a volatile week, while gold and silver are pulling back as the dollar shows some resilience.

Economic Calendar

Focus today is on the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Canadian Retail Sales. 

• 12:30 PM GMT / 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 
• Canadian Core Retail Sales m/m (Apr) 
• Canadian Retail Sales m/m (Apr) 
• Japan Core Inflation (May): 3.7% YoY (Actual) vs. 3.6% (Est.) – Highest since Jan 2023. 
• PBoC Loan Prime Rates: Unchanged (1-yr at 3.0%, 5-yr at 3.5%). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices are holding relatively steady, with WTI near $73.62 per barrel (-0.35%) after a volatile week driven by Middle East tensions and inventory data. Iran’s surprisingly increased oil exports and strong U.S. domestic demand (evidenced by a large crude stockpile drop) are creating mixed pressures. Gold prices are slipping further, down around -1.18% to $3,367.72/oz, as the U.S. dollar strengthens and immediate safe-haven demand appears to be waning with Trump’s decision delay. Silver is also down significantly (-1.54%). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to around 98.67 (+0.23%), recovering from recent multi-year lows as the Fed maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to other central banks. The Euro has weakened, while the Yen is slightly softer against the dollar. U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year yield around 4.390%. Bitcoin has retreated to around $100,000.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.26	USD/bbl	73.62
Brent	-2	USD/bbl	76.85
Gold	-40.38	USD/oz	3367.72
Silver	-0.561	USD/oz	35.792
EUR/USD	(Implied lower vs USD)	USD
USD/JPY	-0.13	JPY	145.33
10-Year Note	(Steady)	%	0.0439
Dollar Index	0.23	Points	98.67

Looking Ahead 

The market will closely watch the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy. Developments in the Middle East, particularly any rhetoric or actions from Israel or Iran, remain a significant wildcard. Investors will continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in light of ongoing inflation data and global economic conditions, especially as other central banks like the SNB have begun easing. The upcoming PCE inflation report next week will be a critical data point.