Closing Recap

U.S. stocks experienced a slow, low-volume week, with the S&P 500 largely rangebound as investors digested a mix of geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and awaited key economic data, despite the market’s significant rally since April. 

Key Takeaways 

• Markets Stagnate Despite Rally: The S&P 500 traded sideways, failing to break all-time highs despite being within 2%, as summer doldrums trading set in. This comes after a >20% surge from April lows. 
• Geopolitical Overhang: Ongoing Israel-Iran tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain significant risk factors, keeping sentiment in check. 
• US PCE Inflation & Spending (Fri): Crucial data on US consumer spending and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) will be closely watched for signs of tariff impacts and economic strength. 
• Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Tue/Wed): Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress will be parsed for clues on the policy outlook amidst conflicting economic signals. 
• Oil Prices Mixed, Gold Slips: Oil prices saw Brent fall sharply Friday while WTI slipped modestly, though both benchmarks rose for the week. Gold ended the holiday-shortened week lower. 
• Treasury Yields Decline: The 10-year Treasury yield fell for the week to its lowest since mid-June, reflecting some caution.
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: US Core PCE & Spending (Fri), Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony (Tue/Wed), and Global Flash PMIs (Mon) are the main events, alongside ongoing geopolitical monitoring. 

Looking Ahead

After a period of consolidation, the market faces a week rich with potential catalysts, headlined by critical US inflation and spending data (PCE on Friday) and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress (Tuesday and Wednesday). Investors will be keenly focused on whether May’s PCE data shows an uptick in inflation due to tariffs and how consumer spending is holding up. 

Chair Powell’s remarks will be dissected for any nuanced shifts in the Fed’s outlook on inflation, the labor market, and the potential path for interest rates, especially given the market’s pricing of ~50bps in cuts by year-end. Global Flash PMIs on Monday will provide early insights into June business activity. Ongoing vigilance regarding geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, and any fresh news on trade tariffs will also be crucial for market sentiment. Expect data-driven moves and heightened attention to Fed commentary.

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets navigated another week characterized by low trading volumes and a general lack of directional conviction, with the S&P 500 essentially treading water. This stagnation comes despite the remarkable rally of over 20% since the April tariff-induced lows, which brought the index within striking distance of its all-time highs. However, a confluence of factors appears to be keeping a lid on further upside for now. Persistent geopolitical tensions, notably between Israel and Iran, as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, continue to cast a shadow over risk sentiment. Furthermore, despite some recent de-escalation rhetoric, the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and upcoming tariff deadlines (July 9th) remains a concern. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	42206	35.16	0.0008
S&P 500	5967	-13.03	-0.0022
Nasdaq	19447	-98.86	-0.0051
Russell 2000	2109	-3.7	-0.0018

Investors seem to be brushing off a recent string of weaker economic data points related to jobs, manufacturing, and housing, as well as the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to signal imminent rate cuts despite months of slowing inflation data. The market appears to be in a holding pattern, awaiting fresh catalysts. Friday saw oil prices diverge, with Brent crude falling sharply while WTI slipped more modestly, though both benchmarks posted weekly gains. Gold prices declined for the week. Treasury yields also fell, reflecting a degree of caution.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of June 23rd) 

MON (Jun 24): 

• Global Flash S&P Global PMIs (Jun – US, EZ, UK, etc.): Key early indicators of June business activity; watched for trade war impacts. 
• US Pending Home Sales (May): Housing market indicator. 

TUE (Jun 25): 

• Fed Chair Powell Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Testimony (Day 1 – Senate): Scrutinized for policy outlook, views on inflation, tariffs. 
• Canadian CPI (May): Key inflation data for Canada; core inflation easing watched closely by BoC. 
• US Consumer Confidence (Jun – Conference Board): Consumer sentiment gauge. 

WED (Jun 26): 

• Fed Chair Powell Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Testimony (Day 2 – House): Continued questioning on policy. 
• US New Home Sales (May): Housing market data. 

THU (Jun 27): 

• US Durable Goods Orders (May): Key indicator of business investment. 
• US GDP (Q1 – Final Estimate): Final look at first-quarter growth. 
• US Pending Home Sales (May): (Note: Redundant if on Mon, check specific calendar for week). 
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Jun 22): Labor market indicator. 

FRI (Jun 28): 

• US PCE Price Index (May), Personal Income & Spending (May): Headline PCE exp. +2.25% Y/Y, Core PCE +2.58% Y/Y (Cleveland Fed). Personal Consumption exp. +0.3% M/M. Crucial for Fed. 
• Canadian GDP (Apr – Monthly): Monthly growth data for Canada.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Oil prices saw a mixed end to the week, with Brent crude falling sharply by 2.33% on Friday to settle at $77.01/bbl, while WTI crude slipped a more modest 0.28% to $74.93/bbl. Despite Friday’s divergence, both benchmarks posted weekly gains (Brent +3.6%, WTI +2.7%), supported by easing US-Iran tensions which fed hopes of a negotiated agreement, somewhat offsetting broader demand concerns. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	74.93	-0.21	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	77.01	-1.84	USD/bbl
Gold (Aug Fut.)	3385.7	-22.4	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1528	0.0034	Rate
USD/JPY	145.97	0.52	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04374	-0.00021	Yield (%)

Gold prices slipped on Friday, settling at $3,385.70/oz, and ended the holiday-shortened week lower, breaking a two-week winning streak. The Fed’s interest rate decision seemed to have little impact on gold, nor did signs of improving US-Iran talks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the day and week lower at 4.374%, marking its lowest yield since mid-June and its third weekly decline in the last four weeks. The U.S. dollar was relatively stable.