Daily Market Review

Date:

26.6.25
Home Arrow Arrow Daily Market Review Arrow 26.6.25

Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mixed in a quiet session, with the Nasdaq edging higher on tech strength while the Dow and S&P 500 slipped, as markets consolidated recent gains amid a lull in major catalysts; gold and oil prices posted modest gains, and Treasury yields were little changed. 

Key Takeaways 

  • Quiet, Mixed Session: Major indices saw little overall movement. Nasdaq managed a slight gain, supported by Technology, while the S&P 500 and Dow ended marginally lower. Small caps underperformed. 
  • Consolidation After Rally: Markets appeared to take a breather following a significant multi-week advance, with no major news on trade or geopolitics to drive direction. 
  • Weak New Home Sales: May New Home Sales fell sharply by -13.7%, significantly missing expectations and indicating further cooling in the housing market. 
  • Sentiment Remains “Greed”: Despite the quiet day, the Fear & Greed Index held in Greed territory, though some underlying indicators (sell-side ratio, jobs gap) signal caution. 
  • Gold & Oil Edge Higher: Gold prices posted a modest gain as traders refocused on Fed rate cut scenarios. Oil prices also ticked up after recent selling, supported by a U.S. inventory draw. 
  • Yields Stable, Dollar Mixed: Treasury yields were little changed across the curve. The U.S. dollar was mixed against major currencies. 
  • Focus on PCE Data: Investors await key jobless claims and Core PCE inflation data later this week for further market direction. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets experienced a day of quiet consolidation, finishing mixed after a period of significant gains. With no major developments on the U.S.-Iran front and a lull in significant economic releases or trade headlines, investors seemed content to pause and digest the recent powerful rally. The S&P 500 hovered around the flatline for much of the session, while the Nasdaq managed to secure a modest gain, buoyed by continued strength in the technology sector. Broader market breadth, however, was negative, with decliners outpacing advancers by approximately 2:1, and small caps (Russell 2000) underperformed. 

IndexUp/Down% ChangeLast
DJ Industrials-105.17-0.002442984
S&P 5000.1206092
Nasdaq61.020.003119974
Russell 2000-20.71-0.00962140

The primary economic data point of the day was a surprisingly sharp -13.7% drop in May New Home Sales, which came in well below expectations and added to signs of a cooling housing market. Mortgage applications also showed a mixed picture. Despite these potentially concerning signals, the market’s reaction was relatively muted. Sentiment indicators, like the Fear & Greed Index, remain in “Greed” territory, reflecting the recent strong upward momentum. However, other data points, such as a widening gap between jobs plentiful and hard-to-get (a potential leading indicator for unemployment) and continued low sell-side upgrade ratios, suggest underlying caution persists among some market participants. 

Sector performance was uninspiring, with Technology and Communications eking out gains, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples, along with Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate, paced the decliners. The market seems to be in a holding pattern ahead of key economic data later in the week, particularly jobless claims and the Core PCE inflation report, which will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Economic Data

Economic data yesterday centered on the housing market, with New Home Sales showing a significant and unexpected decline. 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications (Weekly): Rose +1.1% (vs. -2.6% prior). 30-year mortgage rate at 6.88% (vs. 6.84% prior). 
  • New Home Sales (May): Fell sharply by -13.7% m/m to a 0.623 million annualized rate (Forecast: -6.7%, 0.693M; Prior: +10.9%, 0.743M). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices posted a modest gain, with August futures settling up $9.20 (+0.28%) at $3,343.10 per ounce. Traders appeared to refocus on potential Federal Reserve rate cut scenarios, providing some support for the precious metal after yesterday’s profit-taking. The gold ETF (GLD) notably extended its streak above its 50-day moving average. Crude oil prices also edged higher, with August WTI gaining $0.55 (+0.85%) to settle at $64.92/bbl. The rise came after two days of significant selling and was supported by weekly EIA inventory data showing a larger-than-expected draw of 5.836 million barrels. Treasury yields were little changed across the curve after some intraday fluctuations. The 10-year yield ended near 4.293%, largely unmoved by the day’s economic data or market action. The U.S. dollar index was mixed, gaining slightly against the Yen but weakening against the Euro.

AssetUp/DownUnit / % ChangeLast
WTI Crude0.55USD/bbl64.92
Brent0.54USD/bbl67.68
Gold9.2USD/oz3343.1
EUR/USD0.0049USD1.117
USD/JPY0.366JPY145.2
10-Year Note0%0.04293

Looking Ahead 

The market will be closely watching tomorrow’s weekly jobless claims data and, more importantly, the Core PCE Price Index report on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. These data points will be critical in shaping expectations for future monetary policy. While major trade or geopolitical headlines were absent today, any new developments in these areas could quickly shift market sentiment. Earnings season is largely over, but any remaining reports will be monitored for insights into corporate health.

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