Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new all-time highs as markets shrugged off a weak private payrolls report; small caps led the rally, oil surged late day, gold gained, and Treasury yields rose ahead of the jobs report and holiday weekend. 

Key Takeaways 

• S&P 500 & Nasdaq Hit Record Highs: Major indices rallied into the close, pushing the S&P and Nasdaq to record levels, while small caps outperformed significantly. 
• Weak ADP Report Ignored: Markets looked past a surprisingly weak June ADP private payrolls report, which showed a decline of -33,000 jobs, the first negative reading since March 2023. 
• Vietnam Trade Deal Boosts Sentiment: A new trade deal announced with Vietnam, where they will pay a 20% tariff in exchange for full market access, provided a positive trade backdrop. 
• Oil Surges Late Day: Crude oil prices jumped over 3% into the close despite a reported build in U.S. inventories. 
• Gold Edges Higher: Gold prices posted modest gains. 
• Yields & Dollar Rise: Treasury yields ticked higher across the curve, and the U.S. dollar firmed slightly as markets awaited tomorrow’s key jobs data. 
• Tax Bill Vote Looms: The House is expected to vote on the Senate-passed version of the Trump tax/spending bill today or tomorrow. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets continued their impressive climb today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pushing to new all-time closing highs in a session that saw investors largely dismiss weak private payrolls data. Stocks traded in a tight range for most of the day before a steady afternoon rally carried them higher into the close. The “buy the dip” mentality remains firmly in place, with the market showing remarkable resilience; a strong majority of S&P 500 members are now trading above their 50-day moving average, a sign of improving technical health. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-10.52	-0.0002	44484
S&P 500	29.41	0.0047	6227
Nasdaq	190.24	0.0094	20393
Russell 2000	28.84	0.0131	2226

The main economic event was the June ADP private payrolls report, which surprisingly showed a decline of -33,000 jobs, a stark miss from the +95,000 consensus and the first negative print in over two years. However, the market reaction was muted, suggesting investors may be putting more weight on the official government jobs report due tomorrow morning or are more focused on the broader macro themes of trade de-escalation and potential Fed easing. 

On the trade front, President Trump announced a new trade deal with Vietnam via Truth Social. The terms involve Vietnam paying a 20% tariff on goods sent to the U.S. in exchange for “TOTAL ACCESS” to their markets at zero tariff. This news provided another positive trade data point for markets to digest, although Trump’s more cautious comments yesterday regarding a deal with Japan linger in the background. The rotation trend continued, with small caps and cyclical sectors outperforming, while large-cap tech took a slight breather from its torrid run.

Economic Data

The key economic report yesterday was the ADP private payrolls, which came in significantly weaker than expected, indicating a potential cooling in the labor market ahead of tomorrow’s official NFP report. 

• ADP Private Employment Change (June): -33,000 (Consensus: +95,000, Prior: +37,000). First negative reading since March 2023. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices posted modest gains, with August futures settling up $9.90 (+0.30%) at $3,359.70 per ounce, finding support from ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Crude oil prices surged into the close, with WTI gaining $2.00 (+3.06%) to settle at $67.45/bbl. The rally came despite a reported weekly build in U.S. crude inventories, suggesting traders may be focused on other factors like the positive trade news or technical positioning. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	2	USD/bbl	67.45
Brent	2	USD/bbl	69.11
Gold	9.9	USD/oz	3359.7
EUR/USD	-0.001	USD	1.1795
USD/JPY	0.27	JPY	143.7
10-Year Note	0.049	%	0.04298

The U.S. dollar index edged slightly off multi-year lows but remained under pressure as traders weighed the weak ADP data against potential Fed policy. The Euro and Pound both lost some ground against the dollar. Treasury yields ticked higher as markets awaited the June jobs report, with the 10-year yield rising about 4 basis points to 4.290%.

Looking Ahead 

Today is a shortened trading day ahead of the Friday 4th of July holiday. The main event will be the release of the official June Nonfarm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET. This data will be critical for gauging the health of the U.S. labor market and will heavily influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The House is also expected to vote on the Trump tax/spending bill today or tomorrow. After the jobs report, market activity is expected to slow considerably ahead of the holiday.