Closing Recap

U.S. stocks continued their impressive rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching another round of all-time highs, driven by strong economic data that eased recession fears; the dollar and oil prices gained, while gold and Treasury yields slipped. 

Key Takeaways 

• S&P & Nasdaq Hit New Record Highs: The bull train rolled on, with major indices posting solid gains, extending the powerful rally off the April lows. 
• Strong Economic Data Fuels Optimism: Better-than-expected June Retail Sales, improved jobless claims, and a very strong Philly Fed manufacturing survey boosted investor sentiment. 
• Dovish Fed Speak Supports Markets: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her expectation for two rate cuts this year, reassuring investors. 
• Volatility Eases Further: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell again, dropping below 17, as investors showed minimal fear despite approaching the August 1st tariff deadline. 
• Oil & Dollar Gain: Crude oil prices rebounded, supported by strong U.S. data and a delayed reaction to a large inventory draw. The U.S. dollar also strengthened. 
• Gold Eases, Yields Mixed: Gold prices fell as risk appetite improved, while Treasury yields were little changed after recent volatility. 
• Crypto Regulation Advances: The U.S. House passed a bill to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, a major milestone for the digital asset industry. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets continued to build on their remarkable momentum today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closing at fresh all-time highs. The market’s “bull train” appears unstoppable for now, as a raft of stronger-than-expected economic data provided a significant boost to investor sentiment and eased concerns about a potential economic downturn. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell once again, dipping below the 17 level and indicating a near-total absence of fear among investors, even as the August 1st tariff deadline approaches. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	230.75	0.0052	44485
S&P 500	33.81	0.0054	6297
Nasdaq	153.78	0.0074	20884
Russell 2000	26.69	0.012	2253

Yesterday’s gains were driven by several key data points. June Retail Sales came in much stronger than anticipated, showing a healthy rebound in consumer spending. Weekly Jobless Claims fell more than expected, pointing to continued labor market resilience. Most impressively, the Philadelphia Fed business conditions index for July surged to 15.9, blowing past a negative consensus forecast and signaling a sharp rebound in regional manufacturing sentiment, with new orders and employment components jumping significantly. 

This positive data, combined with dovish commentary from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who reiterated expectations for two rate cuts this year, created a “Goldilocks” environment for stocks. The rally was broad-based, with nine of the eleven S&P sectors finishing higher. Technology continued its strong run, partly on a positive earnings reaction for TSM, and Industrials also hit all-time highs. The main laggard was the Healthcare sector, weighed down by a weak earnings report and guidance from Elevance Health (ELV).

Economic Data

Economic data yesterday was broadly stronger than expected, alleviating recent recession fears and supporting the market rally. 

• Retail Sales (June): Rose +0.6% m/m (vs. +0.1% est., -0.9% prior). Ex-autos +0.5% (vs. +0.3% est.). 
• Import Prices (June): Rose +0.1% m/m (below +0.3% est.). YoY, import prices -0.2%. 
• Weekly Jobless Claims: Fell to 221,000 (from 228,000 prior), below the 235,000 consensus. 
• Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (July): Surged to 15.9 (vs. -1.0 est., -4.0 prior). New Orders jumped to 18.4, Employment to 10.3, and Prices Paid to 58.8. 
• NAHB Housing Market Index (July): 33 (In line with consensus, vs. 32 prior). 
• Business Inventories (May): Unchanged m/m (matching consensus). 
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2 Forecast): Revised lower to 2.4% from 2.6%. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices finished lower for the third time in four sessions, with August futures falling $13.80 (-0.42%) to settle at $3,345.30 per ounce. The decline was driven by strong risk appetite in equities, a firmer U.S. dollar, and perhaps profit-taking after a strong run. Crude oil prices rebounded, with WTI gaining $1.16 (+1.75%) to settle at $67.54/bbl. The rally was supported by the strong U.S. retail sales data, which boosts the demand outlook, and a delayed positive reaction to yesterday’s large crude inventory draw. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	1.16	USD/bbl	67.54
Brent	1	USD/bbl	69.52
Gold	-13.8	USD/oz	3345.3
EUR/USD	-0.0046	USD	1.1588
USD/JPY	0.68	JPY	148.54
10-Year Note	-0.016	%	0.04439

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) edged higher by about 0.3%, gaining against the Euro, Yen, and Sterling following the robust economic reports. Treasury yields were little changed after recent volatility, with the 10-year yield up less than 1 basis point to 4.462%, as the market balanced strong growth data against dovish Fed commentary.

Looking Ahead 

The market heads into Friday with significant positive momentum. After the close tonight, earnings from Netflix (NFLX) will be a key focus for the media and streaming space. With this week’s key U.S. economic data now released, attention will likely remain on Q2 earnings reports and any further developments on the trade front as the August 1st tariff deadline approaches. The strong technical posture of the market, with the S&P 500 enjoying a long streak above its 20-day moving average, will also be watched by traders.