Closing Recap (Week Ending July 18)

 U.S. stocks finished a rangebound week with gains, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched new intraday highs Friday despite late-day pressure from renewed EU tariff concerns. Elsewhere, the US Dollar strengthened for the week, pressuring gold prices lower, while Bitcoin consolidated above the key $120,000 level.

Key Takeaways 

• S&P 500 & Nasdaq Hit New Highs: Stocks ended the week higher (S&P 500 +0.59%, Nasdaq +1.51%), led by technology, with major indices touching fresh intraday records on Friday. 
• Trade Tensions Simmer: A mid-afternoon report on Friday that President Trump is escalating tariff demands on the EU caused a brief market dip, but stocks proved resilient. 
• Dollar Gains, Gold Slips Weekly: The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose for the week, benefiting from signs of tariff-related inflation pressures. Gold finished the week with losses. 
• Bitcoin Consolidates Above $120k: Bitcoin held steady above $120,000, with analysts pointing to a fresh influx of institutional capital and a potential mid-cycle adoption phase before a possible breakout.
• Options Expiration Adds Volume: A large options expiration of over $2.8 trillion in notional value contributed to late-day trading volume on Friday. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Tue), the ECB rate decision (Thu), and crucial earnings reports from Alphabet & Tesla (Wed) are the main events to watch. 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s attention will turn to a critical slate of central bank commentary, mega-cap earnings, and key economic data. The week’s highlight will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday. With President Trump ramping up public pressure on the Fed, Powell’s remarks on policy patience and central bank independence will be intensely scrutinized. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will make its policy decision. While no rate change is expected, President Lagarde’s press conference will be closely watched for any shift in tone regarding the downside risks posed by escalating US trade threats. 

The Q2 earnings season also moves into high gear with reports from two “Magnificent Seven” members, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA), on Wednesday after the bell. Investors will focus on Alphabet’s advertising revenue and AI progress, while Tesla’s 2025 guidance and commentary on tariffs and its robotaxi initiative will be paramount. Finally, preliminary S&P Global PMIs for July (Thursday) from the US, UK, and Eurozone will provide the first real-time glimpse into economic activity for the new month.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets navigated a tight trading range for most of the week but ultimately finished with gains, continuing their resilient performance. The S&P 500 hovered near the 6,300 level, and both it and the Nasdaq composite touched fresh intraday all-time highs on Friday, propelled by another week of leadership from the technology sector. The market’s strength was tested late Friday afternoon following a Financial Times report that President Trump has hardened his stance in trade talks with the European Union, now demanding a minimum tariff of 15-20%. This news briefly pushed major averages into negative territory, but the market held up relatively well into the close. Trading volume picked up late in the day, influenced by a significant options expiration event involving over $2.8 trillion in notional value. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	44341	-142.51	-0.0032
S&P 500	6296	-0.59	-0.0001
Nasdaq	20895	10.01	0.0005
Russell 2000	2240	-13.68	-0.0061

In the digital asset space, Bitcoin is currently consolidating above the $120,000 mark, gaining 1.3% in the last 24 hours. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound trading phase, with key support at $110,530 and resistance between $120,000 and $123,218. The stability is underpinned by strong institutional interest, with significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and what experts believe is a fresh influx of capital signaling a “mid-cycle adoption phase.” This consolidation could be setting the stage for a future price surge, with some analysts eyeing targets of $135,000 to $150,000.

The U.S. dollar finished the week with gains as investors weighed signs that tariffs may be starting to feed into some inflation metrics, alongside ongoing pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve. Oil prices erased early gains on Friday as supply risks came back into focus, while gold, after a mid-week drop, saw a modest rebound on Friday but still closed down for the week.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of July 21st) 

MON (Jul 21): 

• NZ Consumer Price Index (Q2): Key inflation data for New Zealand. 

TUE (Jul 22): 

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Key speech at a Fed-hosted conference; will be watched closely for his stance on Fed independence and policy patience amid political pressure. 
• RBA Meeting Minutes: Details from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy meeting. 
• ECB Bank Lending Survey: Survey on bank lending conditions in the Eurozone. 

WED (Jul 23): 

• Alphabet (GOOGL) & Tesla (TSLA) Q2 Earnings (After-Market): GOOGL EPS exp. $2.18; focus on ad revenue and Gemini. TSLA focus on 2025 guidance, tariffs, and robotaxi updates after a weak Q1. 
• US Existing Home Sales (Jun): Housing market data. 

THU (Jul 24):

• ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference: No rate change expected. Focus is on President Lagarde’s tone regarding new US tariff threats and whether she sounds more dovish. 
• Global Flash S&P Global PMIs (Jul – US, EZ, UK): First look at July business activity; watched for trade-related impacts. 
• US New Home Sales (Jun): Housing market data. 

FRI (Jul 25): 

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jul): Key leading indicator for national inflation in Japan. 
• UK Retail Sales (Jun): UK consumer spending data; a strong set of figures could support the pound. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Oil prices erased early gains on Friday, with WTI crude settling down 0.3% at $67.34/bbl, as supply risks from geopolitical tensions in Iraq, Syria, and with Russia were a focus. August gold futures settled higher by 0.39% on Friday at $3,358.30/oz, but this came after a 1.1% drop in the prior session, leading to a loss for the week. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	67.34	-0.2	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	69.28	-0.24	USD/bbl
Gold (Aug Fut.)	3358.3	13	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1625	0.0031	Rate
USD/JPY	148.7	0.1	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04422	-0.00041	Yield (%)

The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday but held onto weekly gains as investors weighed signs of tariff-related inflation pressures against the backdrop of Fed policy. The dollar index (DXY) gained roughly 0.4% for the week. The euro ended the week lower against the dollar, while the yen was steady but also down for the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell on Friday to 4.422%.