Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures indicate a positive start to the week, as markets digest a weekend of mixed trade headlines and a setback for Japan’s ruling party; gold and oil are steady, while the dollar is slightly weaker as investors await key U.S. earnings and economic data. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Edge Higher: Equities are poised for a slightly higher open, showing resilience amidst ongoing trade policy uncertainty and political shifts in Japan. 
• Japan Political Uncertainty: Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority in Sunday’s election, creating political headwinds for Prime Minister Ishiba and initially strengthening the Yen. 
• Trade Talk Hopes Linger: Markets remain focused on the August 1st U.S. tariff deadline, with reports of a potential Trump-Xi meeting before October’s APEC summit providing some optimism. 
• Busy Earnings Week: Q2 earnings season ramps up significantly this week with reports from key tech giants including Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel. 
• Dollar Softens: The U.S. Dollar Index is trading in negative territory below 98.50, as risk flows improve slightly and focus shifts to upcoming Fed policy. 
• Gold & Oil Steady: Gold is trading modestly higher, while oil prices are little changed as markets balance OPEC+ supply plans with geopolitical risks. 
• Central Bank Watch: The ECB is expected to hold rates steady this week, while the Fed remains in a blackout period ahead of its late-July meeting. China’s PBoC left its loan prime rates unchanged today. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are set to begin the week on a cautiously optimistic note, with futures pointing to modest gains. This comes after a mixed session in Asia, where markets grappled with political uncertainty in Japan and unchanged lending rates from the People’s Bank of China. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house of parliament in Sunday’s election, a development that initially caused the Yen to gap higher on political uncertainty before pairing gains. While this creates a more challenging domestic environment for Ishiba, he has vowed to remain in office and focus on economic diplomacy. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-142.3	-0.0032	44342.19
S&P 500	-0.57	-0.0001	6296.79
Nasdaq	10.01	0.0005	20895.66

The primary focus for global investors remains on U.S. trade policy as the August 1st deadline for new reciprocal tariffs approaches. Reports that President Trump and Chinese President Xi could meet before the October APEC summit are helping to support a positive risk tone this morning. Last week, U.S. and European stocks ended mixed, reacting to Trump’s tariff demands, strong U.S. data, and corporate results. 

With a light economic calendar to start the week, attention will be squarely on the heavy slate of Q2 corporate earnings reports, with Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel among the notable companies set to release results. The U.S. dollar is starting the week on a softer footing, while gold is finding some support. Oil prices are steady, balancing planned OPEC+ supply increases against ongoing geopolitical risks.

Economic Calendar

The U.S. economic calendar is very light today. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Key This Week: 

• Fed Chair Powell Speech (Tuesday). 
• ECB Rate Decision (Thursday). 
• U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts data. 
• Major International Releases/Data: PBoC Loan Prime Rates: Unchanged (1-yr at 3.00%, 5-yr at 3.50%).
• New Zealand Q2 CPI: +2.7% YoY (vs. +2.8% est.), +0.5% QoQ (vs. +0.6% est.). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

Gold prices are trading modestly higher, near $3,373.70 per ounce (+0.46%), supported by a softer U.S. dollar and lingering uncertainty over U.S. debt and trade policy. The tariff deadline of August 1st may also be keeping some defensive bids alive. Crude oil prices are little changed, with WTI around $65.76 (-0.44%) and Brent near $68.95 (-0.48%), as the market weighs planned OPEC+ supply increases against geopolitical risks. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.29	USD/bbl	65.76
Brent	-0.33	USD/bbl	68.95
Gold	15.4	USD/oz	3373.7
Silver	0.389	USD/oz	38.853
EUR/USD	0.0025	USD	1.1651
USD/JPY	-1.05	JPY	147.78
10-Year Note	-0.05	%	0.04381
Dollar Index	-0.281	Points	97.917

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in negative territory below 98.50, continuing its recent weakness. The Euro is holding steady near 1.1650, and the British Pound is attempting a rebound. The Japanese Yen saw a volatile open, initially spiking higher on election news before paring gains, with USD/JPY recovering above 148.00. U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year yield around 4.381%.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be primarily driven by the heavy slate of Q2 earnings reports this week, particularly from the tech sector. Any guidance from companies regarding the impact of tariffs and the economic outlook will be critical. Comments from Fed Chair Powell on Tuesday and the ECB’s rate decision on Thursday will also be key events. Developments in U.S. trade policy, especially as the August 1st tariff deadline approaches, will continue to be a major source of potential volatility.