Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished mixed with a slight upward bias, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged to new all-time highs, though gains were pared late in the day; gold surged on a weaker dollar and rate cut hopes, while oil slipped and Treasury yields fell ahead of a busy earnings week. 

Key Takeaways 

• S&P & Nasdaq Notch New Records: Major indices continued their upward trend, with the S&P and Nasdaq hitting fresh all-time highs, driven by strength in Technology and Communications. 
• Quiet Summer Trading: The market remains in a low-volatility state (18 straight sessions without a 1% move for S&P 500), showing impressive resilience. 
• Trade Backdrop Simmers: Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on the Fed and reports of potential new EU countermeasures kept trade policy in focus, though with no major escalations. 
• Gold Surges: Gold prices jumped over 1.4% as the U.S. dollar weakened significantly and rate cut optimism grew. 
• Dollar Falls, Yields Dip: The U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply, while Treasury yields declined across the curve. 
• Oil & Natural Gas Slip: Crude oil prices edged slightly lower, and natural gas prices plunged nearly 7%. 
• Focus on Earnings & Fed: The market looks ahead to a heavy slate of Q2 earnings this week (TSLA, GOOGL) and comments from Fed speakers Powell and Bowman. 
• Japanese Yen Gains on Political Uncertainty: The Yen strengthened across the board after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority in elections. 

Market Overview

The U.S. stock market’s upward momentum persisted today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite once again climbing to new all-time highs. The market continues to exhibit remarkable resilience, grinding higher in what has become a low-volatility environment, now 18 straight sessions without a 1% move for the S&P 500. Technology and Communications were among the leading sectors, continuing their strong year-to-date performance. The market’s strength is notable, with the S&P 500 now having gone 60 consecutive days without closing below its 20-day moving average, a sign of a powerful underlying trend. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-18.66	-0.0004	44323
S&P 500	8.81	0.0014	6305
Nasdaq	78.52	0.0038	20974
Russell 2000	-8.88	-0.004	2231

Investor sentiment remains positive, with complacency seemingly the dominant theme as fear is absent from the market. This comes despite ongoing, albeit quieter, trade and tariff discussions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made headlines with comments suggesting the Federal Reserve as an institution should be examined and downplayed inflationary effects from tariffs. Meanwhile, reports suggest the EU is exploring further countermeasures against the U.S. The primary driver appears to be the expectation of Fed rate cuts and the continued strength of the AI narrative, which has kept the tech sector in a prolonged “overbought” state. 

The economic calendar was light, with June’s leading economic indicators showing a slight decline. The main focus for investors is now squarely on the heavy slate of Q2 earnings reports due this week, which will provide crucial insights into corporate health. Key reports from Tesla and Google will be particularly important for the tech and consumer sectors. Fed speakers, including Chair Powell and Governor Bowman, are also scheduled to speak this week before the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period begins

Economic Calendar

Yesterday’s economic calendar was very light, featuring the Leading Economic Index. The focus is on upcoming Fed speeches and earnings.

• Yesterday’s U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (June): -0.3% (vs. -0.2% consensus, 0.0% prior). 
• Key Events Today and This Week: Fed Chair Powell Speech. 
• Fed Governor Bowman Speech. 
• Q2 Earnings reports from Tesla, Google, and others. 
• ECB Rate Decision (Thursday – expected to hold).

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices surged, with August futures gaining $48.10 (+1.41%) to settle at $3,406.40 per ounce. The rally was fueled by a significantly weaker U.S. dollar and renewed optimism for Federal Reserve rate cuts following recent cooler inflation data. Crude oil prices slipped modestly, with WTI settling down $0.14 (-0.21%) at $67.20/bbl. Natural gas prices plunged nearly 7% on stagnant LNG export flows and high storage levels. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.14	USD/bbl	67.2
Brent	-0.07	USD/bbl	69.21
Gold	48.1	USD/oz	3406.4
EUR/USD	0.0065	USD	1.169
USD/JPY	-1.58	JPY	147.22
10-Year Note	-0.067	%	0.04367

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply by -0.6% to 97.85 as the Euro and Yen gained strength. The Yen rallied across the board after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority over the weekend, creating political uncertainty. Treasury yields were broadly lower, with the 10-year yield falling about 6.7 basis points to 4.367%, as investors priced in a more dovish Fed outlook. Cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin consolidating near its recent all-time high and Ethereum up sharply, partly due to the passage of key U.S. crypto legislation.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be heavily focused on Q2 earnings reports this week, especially from tech giants Tesla and Google, for insights into corporate guidance amidst the ongoing trade and economic uncertainties. Speeches from Fed Chair Powell and Governor Bowman on Wednesday will be closely watched for any shifts in their views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. While the immediate trade situation seems calm, the August 1st tariff deadline looms, and any new developments could quickly reintroduce volatility.