Closing Recap (Week Ending July 25) 

U.S. stocks continued their deliberate “melt-up,” with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at all-time highs for the week, driven by optimism over the economic outlook and progress on trade deals. Elsewhere, the US Dollar gained strength, pressuring gold and oil prices lower, while Bitcoin fell on Friday amid a broader consolidation. 

Key Takeaways 

• All-Time Highs for Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the 5th straight day, capping a strong week (S&P +0.59%, Nasdaq +1.51%). The rally was described as a “bull freight train” with extremely low volatility. 
• Trade Optimism Fuels Rally: A US-Japan trade deal this week and expectations of a US-EU agreement this weekend eased market concerns ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline. 
• Bitcoin Consolidates After Record High: Bitcoin fell 2.9% on Friday to around $115,544, consolidating within a 115k – 120k range this week after hitting a record high last week. 
• Dollar Gains, Commodities & Yields Mixed: The dollar gained strength for the week. Gold and oil prices fell for the week. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield falling while the 2-year yield rose. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: The FOMC rate decision (Wed), the crucial US Jobs Report (Fri), and a heavy slate of mega-cap tech earnings (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META) are the main events. 

Looking Forward

Looking ahead, the market faces a jam-packed agenda of potentially pivotal events. The Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. While no rate change is expected, the meeting is significant. A dovish tilt is possible, and Chair Powell’s commentary will be crucial for signaling whether a September rate cut is likely, especially given President Trump’s relentless pressure for easing. The week is also saturated with key US economic data, including the advance estimate for Q2 GDP (Wednesday), the PCE inflation report (Thursday), and culminating with the July Nonfarm Payrolls report (Friday). 

This data deluge arrives alongside the busiest week of the Q2 earnings season, with 38% of the S&P 500 by market cap reporting, including giants like Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Internationally, the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings on Wednesday. All of this occurs under the shadow of the fast-approaching August 1st tariff deadline.

Market Overview 

U.S. stock markets experienced an absolute “melt-up” this week, with a slow, steady, and deliberate climb that saw almost no pullbacks. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high for the fifth consecutive day, its 14th record close this year, while the Nasdaq also notched its 15th record. Investor optimism remains robust, fueled by positive developments on the trade front. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	44901	208.01	0.0047
S&P 500	6388	25.29	0.004
Nasdaq	21108	50.36	0.0024
Russell 2000	2261	8.94	0.004

A trade deal with Japan was secured this week, and reports suggest a framework deal with the European Union could be reached this weekend, significantly easing market anxiety ahead of President Trump’s looming August 1st tariff deadline. This optimism has been further bolstered by a strong Q2 earnings season, with 85% of the ~200 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating EPS estimates. Market internals reflect this bullishness, with margin debt hitting a record $1 trillion and a high percentage of stocks trading above key moving averages. 

Friday’s session was quiet, with markets holding near record highs in a tight range. The lone economic data point, June Durable Goods orders, tumbled but was slightly better than the bleak consensus forecast. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s recent rally cooled, with the asset falling 2.9% on Friday to around $115,544. After hitting a record high of $123,166 last week, BTC has been consolidating in a tight range as traders await clarity on Federal Reserve policy, with overall crypto market cap dropping amid record leveraged activity.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of July 28th) 

TUE (Jul 30): 

• US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun), Consumer Confidence (Jul): Key labor demand and sentiment data. 

WED (Jul 31): 

• FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference: No rate change expected. Focus on Powell’s tone and any signaling for a potential September rate cut. 
• Bank of Canada (BoC) & Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Decisions: BoJ likely to hold but may revise forecasts up. BoC expected to hold but faces a difficult backdrop. U
• S Advance GDP (Q2): Expected to show a rebound to +2.5% after Q1’s contraction. 
• US ADP Employment Change (Jul): Private payrolls data, a precursor to NFP. 
• Australian CPI (Q2): Key inflation data for the RBA. 
• Eurozone Prelim GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (Jul): Growth and inflation data for the Eurozone. 

THU (Aug 1): 

• US Tariff Deadline: Deadline for trade deals with various partners. 
• US PCE Price Index (Jun): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected to hold steady at 2.7% Y/Y. 
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Key factory activity data, expected to improve to 49.6 from 49.0. 
• US Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts: Labor market indicators. 

FRI (Aug 2): 

• US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Report (Jul): Headline jobs exp. 102k (down from 147k). Unemployment rate exp. to tick up to 4.2%. Critical for Fed outlook. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

August gold prices fell 1.1% on Friday to settle at $3,335.60/oz, ending the week slightly lower as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the metal. Crude oil prices also eased on Friday and settled at a three-week low, down for the week (WTI -3%, Brent -1%) on worries about negative economic news and signs of growing supply. Natural gas prices tumbled over 12% for the week. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	65.16	-0.87	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	68.44	-0.74	USD/bbl
Gold (Aug Fut.)	3335.6	-37.9	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1745	-0.0009	Rate
USD/JPY	147.58	0.58	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04386	-0.00022	Yield (%)
Bitcoin (approx)	~115,544	(Implied -2.9%)	USD

The U.S. dollar gained strength but remained on course for its biggest monthly drop in a month. Treasury yields finished the week mixed; the 10-year yield fell 4.7bps for the week to 4.385%, snapping a three-week rising streak, while the 2-year yield rose 3.9bps.