Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures point to a higher open, signaling a potential sixth straight day of record highs for the S&P 500, as a weekend trade deal between the U.S. and European Union fuels investor optimism; global markets are mostly higher, oil is up slightly, and the dollar is firm ahead of a massive week for earnings and economic data. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Rise on U.S.-EU Trade Deal: Equities are set to extend last week’s rally after President Trump and EC President von der Leyen announced a trade deal with a 15% tariff on most EU goods, averting a larger trade war. 
• Record Highs in Sight: S&P futures are trading higher, poised to build on a 5-day streak of record closes. 
• Massive Week Ahead: Markets are bracing for the busiest week of the year, featuring a Fed rate decision, the U.S. jobs report, and earnings from tech giants (AAPL, MSFT, META). 
• U.S.-China Talks Continue: Officials from the U.S. and China are meeting in Stockholm today, with markets watching for further progress to defuse trade tensions. 
• Global Markets Mostly Higher: Asian markets were mostly positive, and European markets also gained on the U.S.-EU trade news. 
• Oil Gains, Gold Steadies: Crude oil is modestly higher on the positive trade sentiment, while gold is little changed. The dollar is firming. 
• Corporate News in Focus: Samsung and Tesla announced a new $16.5 billion AI chip production pact, a positive for the tech sector.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are poised to begin a pivotal week on a strong footing, with futures pointing to another day of gains and potential record highs for major indices. The positive sentiment is overwhelmingly driven by the announcement of a significant trade agreement between the United States and the European Union over the weekend. President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed a deal that imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods, a substantial de-escalation from the previously threatened 30% levies. The agreement, which includes a reported $600 billion in EU investment into the U.S., effectively averts a larger trade war between the two economic powerhouses and comes just ahead of the August 1st deadline. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	50	0.0011	45133
S&P 500	12.25	0.0019	6437
Nasdaq	90.5	0.0038	23511

This news has bolstered the risk-on mood that propelled stocks to record highs last week. Global markets have also reacted positively, with most Asian indices and European bourses trading in the green. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the crucial U.S. jobs report for July on Friday. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, its commentary on inflation and the economic outlook will be critical. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting today in Stockholm to continue their own trade discussions.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar is relatively light, with the focus on regional manufacturing data and Treasury auctions. 

• 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing for July 
• 1:00 PM ET: U.S. Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes 
• 1:00 PM ET: U.S. Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes 

Key risk events this week: 

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) 
• U.S. Jobs Report for July (Friday)
•  Earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

Crude oil prices are trading modestly higher, with WTI up around 0.7% to $65.68/bbl. The gains are supported by optimism that the U.S.-EU trade deal will bolster global economic growth and energy demand. Gold prices are also slightly higher, with spot gold at $3,396.35 (+0.19%), finding support from ongoing central bank policy discussions and lingering geopolitical risks, despite the strong risk-on mood. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.74	USD/bbl	65.9
Brent	0.63	USD/bbl	69.07
Gold	1.8	USD/oz	3337.4
EUR/USD	-0.008	USD	1.166
USD/JPY	0.71	JPY	148.36
10-Year Note	-0.004	%	0.04382

The U.S. dollar is strengthening for a third consecutive session, particularly against the Euro and Yen, as the U.S. economy and trade policy outlook appear relatively favorable. U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in early trading, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.399% as the market awaits the week’s heavy slate of data and the Fed decision. Ether has shown notable strength, hitting its highest point since late 2024.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be heavily influenced by the constant flow of major events this week. Today, the focus will be on the outcome of the U.S.-China talks in Stockholm and any further details emerging about the U.S.-EU deal. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index will provide a read on regional factory activity. The main events, however, are the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. In between, a torrent of Q2 earnings reports will provide critical company-level insights into the health of corporate America.