Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished little changed after snapping their record-setting streak, as investors digested ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and mixed economic data ahead of today’s FOMC meeting; oil surged on new U.S. sanction warnings, gold gained, and the dollar hit a one-month high while Treasury yields fell. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks End Flat, Record Streak Snapped: The S&P 500’s 6-day streak of record highs ended with a nearly unchanged close, as markets consolidated in a tight range. 
• Trade Talk Uncertainty: Ongoing U.S.-China talks and commentary from officials kept trade in focus, with Trump holding the final call on a potential truce extension. New tariff threats on India were also noted. 
• Oil Surges on Sanction Threats: Crude oil prices jumped over 3.7% after Treasury Secretary Bessent warned China it could face high tariffs if it continues purchasing sanctioned Russian oil. 
• Dollar Hits 1-Month High, Yields Fall: The U.S. dollar index climbed to its highest since late June, while Treasury yields fell across the curve, aided by a strong 7-year auction. 
• Economic Data Mixed: June JOLTS job openings were slightly below consensus, while July Consumer Confidence beat expectations. Home price growth continued to slow. 
• Focus on Fed & Big Tech Earnings: Markets are now keenly focused on today’s FOMC policy decision and upcoming earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets finished a quiet and range-bound session with little overall change, snapping the S&P 500’s impressive six-day streak of record closing highs. With no major earnings reports today, investors were primarily focused on a steady stream of commentary from U.S. officials regarding ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that discussions on extending the current tariff truce would continue, with President Trump having the final say. This “wait-and-see” approach, coupled with the looming Federal Reserve policy meeting tomorrow, kept markets in a tight consolidation pattern.

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-204.57	-0.0046	44632
S&P 500	-18.89	-0.003	6370
Nasdaq	-80.29	-0.0038	21098
Russell 2000	-13.76	-0.0061	2242

Economic data released today was mixed and failed to provide a clear directional catalyst. While the July Consumer Confidence index surprisingly beat expectations, June JOLTS job openings came in slightly below consensus, and May home price data from S&P Case-Shiller showed a continued deceleration in growth. 

The day’s most significant market moves occurred in commodities and currencies. Crude oil prices surged over 3.7% after Secretary Bessent issued a warning to China regarding its continued purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, threatening high U.S. tariffs. This injected fresh geopolitical risk into the energy market. The U.S. dollar also strengthened, climbing to a one-month high, which in turn weighed on some multinational companies. Treasury yields fell, partly due to a strong 7-year note auction, providing a tailwind for defensive, yield-sensitive sectors like Utilities and REITs. Healthcare and transportation stocks were among the notable laggards, with UPS pulling its guidance.

Economic Data 

Economic data yesterday was mixed, with strong consumer confidence contrasting with softer job openings and slowing home price appreciation. 

• JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7.437M (Consensus: 7.500M, Prior: 7.712M). 
• Consumer Confidence (July): 97.2 (Consensus: 95.0, Prior: 95.2). 
• Goods Trade Balance (June – Advance): -$85.99B. 
• Wholesale Inventories (June – Advance): +0.2%. 
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (May): +2.8% y/y (Consensus: +3.0%, Prior: +3.4%). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices edged higher, with futures gaining $14.00 (+0.42%) to settle at $3,324.00 per ounce, finding support as investors awaited the outcome of the FOMC meeting and U.S.-China trade talks. Crude oil prices surged, with WTI jumping $2.50 (+3.75%) to settle at $69.21/bbl. The rally was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s warning that China could face high tariffs if it continues purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, stoking supply and geopolitical concerns. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	2.5	USD/bbl	69.21
Brent	2.47	USD/bbl	72.51
Gold	14	USD/oz	3324
EUR/USD	-0.004	USD	1.1548
USD/JPY	0.11	JPY	148.64
10-Year Note	-0.086	%	0.04334

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.4% to a one-month high above 99, strengthening against the Euro which was weighed down by internal criticism of the recent U.S.-EU trade deal. Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping about 8.6 basis points to 4.334%. The decline was aided by the ongoing trade uncertainty and a strong 7-year Treasury note auction.

Looking Ahead 

The market is squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference tomorrow afternoon. While no rate change is expected, the Fed’s commentary on inflation, growth, and the impact of tariffs will be critical. Major earnings reports from tech giants Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft over the next two days will be major market movers. The August 1st tariff deadline and any further developments in U.S.-China trade talks also remain key potential catalysts.