Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a mixed and cautious open, as investors weigh a shocking U.S. jobs report and new sweeping tariffs from President Trump against hopes for a Fed rate cut; global markets were mostly lower, the dollar is defensive, while oil and gold are steady. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Mixed After Shock Jobs Report: Equities indicate a cautious start to the week, digesting Friday’s very weak July jobs report (+73K vs. 106K est.) and massive downward revisions to prior months. 
• Trump Announces Sweeping New Tariffs: President Trump announced new “reciprocal tariffs” on 69 countries over the weekend, raising fears of a global slowdown. 
• Weak Jobs Data Boosts Rate Cut Hopes: The poor employment figures have significantly increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. 
• Trump Escalates Fed Criticism: Following the jobs data, President Trump intensified his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, demanding he be “put out to pasture” for not easing policy. 
• Global Markets Mostly Lower: Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei falling sharply, while European markets also traded lower on the tariff news. 
• Oil & Gold Consolidate: Crude oil prices are steady to lower as demand fears from tariffs are weighed against OPEC+ supply plans. Gold is little changed, supported by rate cut hopes. 
• Quiet Day for Data/Earnings: The economic and earnings calendars are very light today, keeping the focus on the fallout from Friday’s news and ongoing Fed commentary. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are set to begin the week on a decidedly cautious note, with futures pointing to a mixed open as investors grapple with a weekend of significant market-moving developments. On Friday, after the U.S. market close, a shocking July jobs report revealed only 73,000 jobs were added, well below expectations. Even more concerning were massive downward revisions to the May and June data, which showed almost no net job creation in those months. This has dramatically intensified concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-542.4	-0.0123	43588.58
S&P 500	-101.38	-0.016	6238.01
Nasdaq	-472.32	-0.0224	20650.13

Compounding the economic worries, President Donald Trump announced a new, sweeping plan for “reciprocal tariffs” on 69 countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 41%. This move threatens to escalate global trade tensions and has raised fears of a broad economic slowdown. The weak jobs data has, however, amplified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as September, providing a potential cushion for risk assets. President Trump immediately seized on the poor jobs numbers to escalate his public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding his ouster for not easing monetary policy sooner. 

Global markets are reflecting this uncertainty this morning. Asian indices were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei falling sharply, while markets in China and South Korea edged higher. European bourses are also trading lower. Commodity markets are seeing crude oil prices consolidate after tumbling nearly 3% last week on demand fears, while gold is holding steady, supported by the increased odds of a Fed rate cut. With a very light economic calendar today, market direction will be almost entirely dictated by the reaction to the tariff plans and positioning ahead of numerous Fed speaker engagements this week.

Economic Calendar

The U.S. economic calendar is very light today. Central bank activity in Australia and India, along with Fed speakers, are key events this week. Key risk events this week: 

• U.S. Factory Orders (today). 
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech (Wednesday). 
• Bank of England Rate Decision (Thursday). 
• Reserve Bank of India Rate Decision (Wednesday). 
• China Trade Data (Thursday).

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices are trading steady to slightly higher, with spot gold around $3,406.30 (+0.19%), as increased expectations for a Fed rate cut are balanced against a defensive U.S. dollar. Crude oil prices are also consolidating, with WTI near $67.62 (+0.43%), as the market weighs the demand-side risk from new tariffs against ongoing OPEC+ supply management and geopolitical tensions. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.29	USD/bbl	67.62
Brent	-0.13	USD/bbl	69.19
Gold	6.5	USD/oz	3406.3
EUR/USD	-0.0036	USD	1.1553
USD/JPY	0.61	JPY	148.01
10-Year Note	0.03	%	0.04255
Dollar Index	-0.22	Points	98.92

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on the defensive, trading down around -0.22% near 98.92, pressured by the soft employment data and swelling Fed rate cut bets. The Euro is slightly weaker, while the British Pound is stronger. U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher after Friday’s decline, with the 10-year yield up about 3 basis points to 4.255%. Bitcoin is trading near three-week lows around $114K as risk appetite wanes.

Looking Ahead 

The market will be intensely focused on any further details or clarifications regarding President Trump’s sweeping new tariff plan and its potential economic impact. Commentary from numerous Fed officials this week will be critical for shaping the market’s expectations for a September rate cut. The Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday will also be a key event for global markets. With a light U.S. data calendar, trade headlines and Fed speak will be the primary drivers of market activity.