Closing Recap (Week Ending August 8th) 

U.S. stocks continued their relentless rally, with the Nasdaq notching another record high and major indices finishing with strong weekly gains, fueled by an excellent earnings season and a surprisingly manageable tariff situation. In other markets, gold surged to a new record high after the U.S. imposed tariffs on bullion bars, Treasury yields rose for the week on weak auctions, and Bitcoin showed sluggish movement, consolidating after recent gains. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stock Market “Melt-Up” Continues: The Nasdaq closed at a record high for the second straight day, with major indices seeing strong weekly gains (S&P 500 up, Nasdaq up, Dow up). Investor sentiment is euphoric (“FOMO”). 
• Rally Drivers: The rally is attributed to: 1) a better-than-feared tariff situation, 2) a terrific Q2 earnings season with an 82% beat rate, 3) expectations of future Fed rate cuts, and 4) an improved geopolitical picture. 
• US Dollar Weakens Weekly as Yields Rise: The US Dollar weakened against the euro and the British Pound for the week, supported by a rise in Treasury yields following weak government bond auctions.
• Gold Hits New Record High: Gold futures surged to a record high of $3,534.10 after the U.S. imposed new reciprocal tariffs on 1kg and 100oz bullion bars, disrupting physical markets. 
• Bitcoin Consolidates: Bitcoin showed sluggish movement, with a slight gain over the week. Despite whale accumulation providing support, doubts about its bullish potential remain amid sticky inflation and high tariffs. 
• Treasury Yields Rise: Yields rose for the week (10yr +6.4bps), reversing an earlier slide, driven primarily by a series of weak Treasury auctions. 
• High Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets are pricing an 89.4% probability of a 25bps Fed rate cut in September and a total of ~58bps of cuts by year-end. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: Crucial US inflation data (CPI Tue, PPI Thu), the RBA rate decision (Tue), and key UK/EZ/Japanese growth data are the main events, alongside ongoing trade developments. 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market faces a week packed with crucial economic data and central bank decisions, all under the shadow of ongoing trade negotiations. The main event will be the release of US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. This data will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve policy, especially with markets pricing in a high probability of a September rate cut. In terms of trade, the US-China tariff truce is set to expire on Tuesday, August 12th, and while an extension is widely expected, markets will be sensitive to any official announcements or new threats. A potential summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also on the radar. 

Central banks are also in focus, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) widely expected to cut interest rates on Tuesday. The Norges Bank also meets on Thursday. A host of important growth and activity data is also due, including Q2 GDP from the UK and Japan, and July activity data from China. A busy IPO schedule continues with crypto firm Bullish (BLSH) and Miami Int’l (MIAX) expected to price.

Market Overview

It was another week of an absolute “melt-up” for U.S. stock markets, characterized by a slow, steady, and deliberate climb with almost no pullbacks. The Nasdaq Composite notched a record closing high for the second consecutive day, capping a week of strong gains across all major indices. Investor sentiment is best described as euphoric, with FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in full effect as Wall Street continues to buy first and worry later. This optimism is underpinned by several factors: the tariff situation, which once spooked markets, is now seen as more manageable, with the U.S. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	44175	206.97	0.0047
S&P 500	6389	49.45	0.0078
Nasdaq	21450	207.32	0.0098
Russell 2000	2218	3.7	0.0017

Treasury collecting record revenue; Q2 earnings season has been terrific, with an 82% beat rate for S&P 500 companies; and despite the Fed holding rates steady, investors are confidently pricing in a rate cut cycle beginning in the next few months. An improving geopolitical macro picture has also added a tailwind. While equities surged, the cryptocurrency market saw more subdued action. 

Bitcoin, after a period of volatility, appeared to be consolidating. Despite a small gain of 1.07% over the week, its movement was described as sluggish, with doubts remaining about its short-term bullish potential due to sticky inflation and high tariffs. However, strong support from major investors, or ‘whales’, who continue to accumulate, is seen as a key factor stabilizing its value. In commodities, gold was the standout performer, surging to a new all-time high after the U.S. announced new tariffs specifically on imported gold bullion bars, creating a significant spread between futures and spot prices.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of August 11th) 

MON (Aug 12): 

• Norwegian CPI (Jul): Inflation data from Norway. Holiday Note: Japan closed for Mountain Day. 

TUE (Aug 13): 

• US-China Tariff Truce Deadline: Truce set to expire; extension is widely expected but not yet formally announced. 
• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision: Unanimous consensus for a 25bps rate cut to 3.60% after a surprise pause in July. 
• UK Jobs Report (Jun): Unemployment rate exp. steady at 4.7%; wage growth watched closely by BoE. 
• US CPI (Jul): Headline exp. +0.2% M/M, Core exp. +0.3% M/M. Annual Core CPI exp. to rise to 3.0% Y/Y. Watched for tariff impacts. 
• German ZEW Economic Survey (Aug): Investor sentiment for Germany. 
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR): Supply/demand outlook. 

WED (Aug 14): 

• German/Spanish Final CPI (Jul): Final inflation readings. 

THU (Aug 15): 

• Norges Bank Rate Decision: Expected to hold rates at 4.25% after a surprise cut at the last meeting. 
• Australian Employment Report (Jul): Labor market data, watched after recent surprise rise in unemployment. 
• UK GDP (Jun & Q2): Monthly GDP for June exp. +0.1%, Q2 Q/Q growth exp. to slow to +0.1% from a strong +0.7% in Q1. 
• EZ Flash GDP (Q2) & Employment (Q2): Growth and jobs data for the Eurozone. 
• US PPI (Jul): Producer price inflation. 

FRI (Aug 16): 

• Japanese GDP (Q2): Expected to show a contraction (-0.7% Y/Y) due to weak exports. 
• Chinese Activity Data (Jul – Industrial Production, Retail Sales): Trend expected to show further moderation. 
• US Retail Sales (Jul): Headline exp. +0.5% M/M; ex-autos exp. +0.2% M/M. Watched for consumer spending slowdown. 
• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug – Prelim.): Consumer mood and inflation expectations. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

December gold futures surged on Friday, gaining 1.09% to settle at $3,491.30/oz, after hitting a new all-time high of $3,534.10 earlier in the session. The catalyst was the U.S. imposing new reciprocal tariffs on 1kg and 100oz gold bullion bars, creating a dislocation in physical markets. Crude oil was volatile and ended the week lower, with WTI falling -4.5%. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	63.88	0	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	66.59	0.16	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3491.3	37.6	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.164	-0.0025	Rate
USD/JPY	147.77	0.67	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04282	0.00039	Yield (%)
Bitcoin (approx)	~116,700	N/D	USD

Prices were hit by concerns that higher US tariffs, which went into effect on Thursday, would harm economic activity and crude demand. U.S. Treasury yields rose for the week, with the 10-year yield up 6.4bps to 4.282%. The move was driven by weak Treasury auctions mid-week which reversed an earlier slide in rates. 

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar finished the week with losses, pressured by persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin an easing cycle later this year, a sentiment reinforced by ongoing political pressure on the central bank. EUR/USD rallied, with the pair ending the week around 1.1640 while USD/JPY ended the week at 147.70, slightly higher. The dollar’s move was notable as it occurred despite markets continuing to price in significant Fed rate cuts, highlighting the powerful influence of yield dynamics driven by the weak Treasury auctions.