Closing Recap (Week Ending August 15)

U.S. stocks finished a choppy week with the Dow posting a record high Friday thanks to a surge in UNH, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended mostly flat as investors digested mixed inflation data and a high-stakes summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska that ended without a major breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. Elsewhere, Bitcoin saw a sharp dip as volatility returned to crypto markets, the US dollar ended the week with losses, and Treasury yields rose on hotter-than-expected producer price data. 

Key Takeaways 

• Mixed Market Performance: The Dow hit a record high Friday, driven by a 12% surge in UNH, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were little changed. For the week, small caps (Russell 2000 +3%) were the standout performers. 
• Inflation Data in Focus: An in-line CPI report early in the week was followed by a hotter-than-expected PPI report on Thursday, which pushed Treasury yields higher and briefly tempered rate cut expectations. 
• Bitcoin Volatility Returns: Bitcoin dipped 5.3% to around $117,927, triggering significant liquidations of approximately $342M amid heightened volatility. Analysts urge caution, citing extreme trader complacency and sharp repricing risks.
• Dollar Ends Week Lower, Yields Rise: The US dollar, after getting some support from retail sales data, ultimately finished the week with losses against its counterparts. Treasury yields, however, rose for the week, primarily driven by the hot PPI data. 
• Geopolitical Watch: Markets closely monitored a high-stakes summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska regarding the Ukraine conflict, which ended without a breakthrough. 
• Strong Earnings Continue: The Q2 earnings season has remained a bright spot, with an 82% beat rate for the 455 S&P 500 companies that have reported. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: The main event is the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (Thu-Sat), with Chair Powell’s speech (Fri) paramount for policy signals. Other key events include the RBNZ decision (Wed) and Global Flash PMIs (Thu). 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s entire focus will shift to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Thursday-Saturday). The highlight will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Investors will be hanging on his every word for clues about the future path of monetary policy, especially after recent mixed inflation data and signs of a softening labor market. His commentary could either solidify or challenge the market’s current pricing of a high probability of a September rate cut. 

Central banks will also be active elsewhere, with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) setting its Loan Prime Rate (Wednesday) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) making its policy decision (Wednesday), where a 25bps cut is anticipated. Key data releases include the FOMC Minutes from the July meeting (Wednesday), which will provide a more detailed look at the internal debate, and preliminary “flash” PMIs for August from the US, UK, and Eurozone (Thursday), which will offer the first real-time glimpse into global economic activity for the month.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets navigated a week of conflicting signals, ultimately finishing with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the standout, hitting a new record high on Friday, largely thanks to a massive 12% gain in shares of heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH) after influential investors disclosed increased stakes. However, the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq were mostly flat on Friday and for the week, struggling to find direction after a busy period of economic data. Early in the week, an in-line Consumer Price Index (CPI) report supported markets, but a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, driven by a spike in services costs, pushed Treasury yields higher and injected some caution. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	44946	34.86	0.0008
S&P 500	6449	-18.75	-0.0029
Nasdaq	21622	-87.69	-0.004
Russell 2000	2286	-12.56	-0.0055

The digital asset space saw a return of volatility. Bitcoin experienced a sharp 5.3% drop to trade around $117,927, triggering over $340 million in market-wide liquidations. This move came after BTC hit a recent peak near $124,500, with analysts highlighting that metrics were signaling extreme trader complacency, elevating the risk of sharp, short-term price swings. Geopolitics also played a role in sentiment, with markets closely watching a much-anticipated summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which ultimately failed to produce a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of August 18th) 

TUE (Aug 20): 

• US Building Permits (Jul): Housing market indicator. 
• Canadian CPI (Jul): Key inflation data for Canada; BoC appears comfortable with current trends. 

WED (Aug 21): 

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision: 25bps rate cut to 3.00% is highly expected (89% priced in). 
• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Setting: Expected to hold rates steady after May’s broad easing. 
• FOMC Minutes (July Meeting): Details of the Fed’s debate; focus on arguments for rate cuts from dissenters Waller and Bowman. 
• UK Inflation (Jul): Headline and services inflation expected to exceed MPC forecasts. 
• EZ Final CPI (Jul): Final Eurozone inflation reading. 

THU (Aug 22): 

• Fed Jackson Hole Symposium Begins: Annual central banking conference kicks off. 
• Global Flash PMIs (Aug – EZ, UK, US): First look at August business activity. 
• EZ Consumer Confidence (Aug): Eurozone sentiment gauge. 

FRI (Aug 23): 

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks at Jackson Hole (10:00EDT/15:00BST): The main event of the week. 
• Japanese National CPI (Jul): Expected to show headline inflation easing to 3.0% Y/Y. 
• German GDP (Q2 – Detailed): Breakdown of Germany’s Q2 growth. 
• UK Retail Sales (Jul): Expected to show a 0.2% M/M decline. 
• Canadian Retail Sales (Jun): Consumer spending data. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices slipped slightly on Friday to settle at $3,382.60/oz, ending the week with a loss of just under 2%. The move was driven by hotter-than-expected US inflation data (PPI) which trimmed rate-cut bets earlier in the week. Oil prices also fell on the day and for the week (WTI -1.7%), pressured by hopes of a US-brokered peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could ease some geopolitical risk premium. In the currency markets, the US dollar had some support Friday from stronger-than-expected retail sales data but ultimately finished the week with losses against its counterparts. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	62.8	-1.16	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	65.85	-0.99	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3382.6	-0.6	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1702	0.0056	Rate
USD/JPY	147.24	-0.53	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04332	0.00039	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	~117,927	-5.30%	USD

The EUR/USD pair rose, ending the week around 1.1702, while the USD/JPY pair fell, with the yen strengthening to 147.24 against the dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday and for the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.332%, its highest level since August 1st, reacting to the hot PPI inflation data.