Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished nearly unchanged in an exceptionally quiet session as markets consolidated recent record highs and awaited Fed Chair Powell’s key speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week; the dollar firmed slightly, while oil gained and gold slipped. 

Key Takeaways 

• Extremely Quiet, Flat Session: The S&P 500 traded in its narrowest intraday range since March 2024, reflecting a “dog days of summer” lull. 
• Consolidation Near Highs: Major indices are pausing after a powerful multi-week rally, with investors showing little urgency to push markets higher or take profits. 
• Focus on Jackson Hole: All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium for crucial guidance on future monetary policy. 
• Mixed Signals for the Fed: Markets are weighing weaker payrolls and cooler CPI against a surprisingly hot PPI report, creating uncertainty for the Fed’s next move. Rate cut expectations for September remain high. 
• Dollar Firms, Oil Gains: The U.S. dollar rose against the Euro and Pound, while crude oil posted modest gains. Gold prices edged slightly lower. 
• Valuation Concerns Persist: Commentary continues to highlight stretched market valuations, with the S&P 500’s Price-to-Book ratio now higher than during the Dot-com bubble peak. 

Market overview 

U.S. equity markets experienced one of the quietest trading days of the year, finishing virtually unchanged as investors settled into a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal Jackson Hole symposium later this week. The S&P 500 traded in its narrowest intraday range since March 2024, a classic sign of the “dog days of summer” as trading volumes dry up and major catalysts are awaited. After a torrid multi-week rally that has carried major indices to record highs, the market appears content to consolidate its gains. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-34.3	-0.0008	44911
S&P 500	-0.65	-0.0001	6449
Nasdaq	6.8	0.0003	21629
Russell 2000	7.95	0.0035	2294

With a very light economic and earnings calendar today, there were few catalysts to drive significant market action. The narrative remains a tug-of-war between strong market momentum and underlying concerns. On one hand, the Q2 earnings season was one of the best on record, with a high beat rate. 

On the other, many strategists are flagging historically expensive valuations, and recent economic data has been mixed, with a weak July jobs report and soft CPI reading being countered by a surprisingly hot PPI print last week. This leaves the Federal Reserve in a complex position, and all eyes will be on Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for any shift in the central bank’s outlook. Geopolitical headlines were also subdued, with markets trading as if a path toward an eventual peace in Ukraine might be emerging. In Washington, investors are monitoring ongoing meetings between President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and other European leaders.

Economic Data

The lone U.S. economic data point today was the NAHB Housing Market Index, which showed a slight dip in homebuilder sentiment. 

• NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug): 32 (vs. 34 consensus, 33 prior). Index of current single-family home sales 35. Index of prospective buyers 22. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices finished slightly lower, with futures down $4.60 (-0.14%) to settle at $3,378.00 per ounce in a quiet session for the metal. Crude oil prices posted modest gains, with WTI settling up $0.72 (+1.16%) at $62.70/bbl, finding some support from benign global conditions and an intact risk appetite in broader markets. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.62	USD/bbl	63.42
Brent	0.75	USD/bbl	66.6
Gold	-4.6	USD/oz	3378
EUR/USD	-0.0031	USD	1.1666
USD/JPY	0.59	JPY	147.77
10-Year Note	0.009	%	0.04337

The U.S. dollar rose against the Euro and British Pound as traders slightly reduced bets on an imminent Fed rate cut following last week’s hot PPI data. The Euro fell 0.2% to $1.1683. Treasury yields moved slightly higher, with the 10-year yield up about 1 basis point to 4.32%, as the bond market also awaits fresh guidance from the Fed at Jackson Hole.

Looking Ahead 

The market will continue to be in a holding pattern ahead of the Jackson Hole economic symposium, which begins on Thursday and culminates with Fed Chair Powell’s key speech on Friday morning. His commentary is the most anticipated event of the week and will be critical for shaping monetary policy expectations. Before then, the market will digest the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Q2 earnings season continues with reports from major retailers like Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT).