Closing Recap

U.S. stocks are poised for a mixed and cautious open, as investors digest a sharp reversal in gold from record highs and look ahead to a heavy slate of U.S. labor market and services data; the dollar is steady, while Chinese equities are under pressure. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Mixed, Markets Cautious: Equities indicate a flat to slightly lower open, with markets consolidating after Wednesday’s tech-led rebound. 
• Gold Reverses Sharply from Record Highs: Gold experienced a significant overnight reversal, pulling back sharply from a new all-time high above $3,575/oz, with traders citing profit-taking. 
• Focus on U.S. Jobs & Services Data: Today’s key data points are weekly jobless claims, ADP employment, and the ISM Services PMI, which will be critical for shaping Fed rate cut expectations. 
• Weaker JOLTS Boosted Rate Cut Hopes: Yesterday’s softer-than-expected July JOLTS job openings report reinforced the market’s conviction in a September Fed rate cut (now priced at >97%). 
• China Stocks Fall on Regulatory Concerns: Chinese equities are under pressure after reports that regulators are considering new measures to cool speculation, including easing short-selling curbs. 
• Oil Prices Weaken: Crude oil is trading lower in the pre-market session. 
• Dollar Steady, Euro & Pound Weaken: The U.S. dollar is finding some stability, while the Euro is easing ahead of retail sales data, and the Pound is under pressure from UK fiscal worries. 
• Japan Trade Talks in Focus: Japan’s chief trade negotiator confirmed he will visit the U.S., keeping trade policy on the radar. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are set for a cautious start to the day, with futures indicating a mixed open as investors navigate a complex macro environment. Wednesday’s session saw a strong rebound led by technology stocks, which was driven by a favorable court ruling for Google and Apple. However, overnight trading brought fresh uncertainties. Gold, which had been on a historic run, briefly touched a new all-time high above $3,575 per ounce before reversing sharply lower in the Asian session, a move attributed to profit-taking. This volatility in a key safe-haven asset is contributing to a more circumspect mood. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-24.95	-0.0006	45270
S&P 500	32.74	0.0051	6448
Nasdaq	218.1	0.0102	21497
Russell 2000	-2.23	-0.0009	2349

Adding to the caution, Chinese equities are trading lower on reports that regulators are considering new measures to rein in market speculation after a recent powerful rally. This comes after China’s markets have shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite hitting a 10-year high. 

The primary focus for U.S. investors today will be a heavy slate of economic data, including weekly jobless claims, the ADP private employment change, and the crucial ISM Services PMI. These reports will be intensely scrutinized for further signs of a cooling U.S. economy, following yesterday’s weaker-than-expected JOLTS job openings data. That report further solidified market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch tool now indicating a greater than 97% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Weakness in today’s data would likely reinforce this view, while a surprise to the upside could introduce fresh uncertainty.

Economic Calendar

A heavy slate of U.S. economic data is due today, focusing on the labor market and the services sector. Today’s Major U.S. Releases (Scheduled): 

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 
• ADP Employment Change for August
• ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August 

Major International Releases/Data (Today): 

• Eurozone Retail Sales (July) 
• Germany Factory Orders (July) 
• Central Bank Speakers (Today): Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-voter). 

Economic data yesterday: 

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (July – Released Wednesday): Dipped to 7.181 million (below 7.378M consensus), the weakest level since September 2024. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

Gold prices have experienced a sharp reversal, with spot gold trading around $3,510 after briefly hitting a new record high above $3,575 overnight. The pullback is attributed to profit-taking. Crude oil prices are trading lower, with WTI around $63.26/bbl, as demand concerns linger. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-1.62	USD/bbl	63.97
Brent	-1.54	USD/bbl	67.6
Gold	43.3	USD/oz	3635.3
EUR/USD	0.0021	USD	1.1659
USD/JPY	-0.29	JPY	148.01
10-Year Note	-0.062	%	0.04215

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is finding some stability after recent weakness, while the Euro is easing ahead of retail sales data, and the British Pound is under pressure from UK fiscal worries. The Japanese Yen saw a volatile overnight session but is holding relatively steady. U.S. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday’s close, with the 10-year yield near 4.215% as the market awaits today’s data deluge. The crypto market is showing mixed signals, with Bitcoin holding above $111,000 while Ethereum has seen strong momentum.

Looking Ahead 

The market’s reaction to today’s triple-header of U.S. economic data (Jobless Claims, ADP, ISM Services) will be the primary driver of the session. The data will be critical in confirming or challenging the market’s high conviction in a September Fed rate cut. Any significant surprises could lead to substantial volatility in equities, bonds, and the U.S. dollar. The sharp reversal in gold will also be closely watched to see if it signals a temporary peak or just a healthy consolidation. The main event for the week remains tomorrow’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report.