Closing Recap (Week Ending September 5th) 

U.S. stocks pulled back sharply on Friday after a much weaker-than-expected August jobs report intensified fears of a slowing economy, cementing expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The US Dollar and Treasury yields tumbled on the news, while gold surged to a new all-time high, oil prices rose on supply concerns, and Bitcoin fell to a 10-week low on signs of potential selling from large holders. In currency markets, the US Dollar tumbled, with EUR/USD rallying to a six-week high, GBP/USD pushing higher, and USD/JPY falling as the yen gained strength.

Key Takeaways 

• Weak Jobs Report Sparks Sell-Off: Stocks reversed from intraday highs to close lower Friday after the US economy added just 22k jobs in August, far below the 75k estimate. Significant downward revisions to prior months, including a negative print for June, added to the gloom. 
• Fed Rate Cut Bets Surge: The probability of a September Fed rate cut jumped to 100%, with rising bets on a larger 50-basis-point cut, as the weak labor data provided a clear signal of economic deterioration. 
• Gold Hits New All-Time High: Gold prices surged to a new record high, settling above $3,650/oz, as the weak jobs report, questions over Fed independence, and general upside momentum fueled strong safe-haven demand. 
• Dollar and Yields Tumble: The US Dollar fell to its lowest level since July, and Treasury yields plunged (10-yr -9bps Friday) to their lowest since April as investors aggressively priced in Fed easing. 
• Currency Pairs Move on Dollar Weakness: The US Dollar tumbled to its lowest levels since early August; EUR/USD hit a six-week high above 1.1760, GBP/USD rallied, and USD/JPY fell as the yen strengthened on rising BoJ hike expectations.
• Bitcoin Consolidates: Bitcoin remained steady around the 110 , 000 − 110,000− 113,000 range, showing sensitivity to US monetary policy discussions but with no clear directional breakout. 
• Oil Prices Decline: Crude oil prices fell on Friday and for the week, as the weak jobs report dimmed the demand outlook, and markets anticipated a potential OPEC+ production increase. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: Crucial US inflation data (PPI Wed, CPI Thu) is the main event ahead of the following week’s Fed meeting. The ECB rate decision (Thu) and a heavy slate of Treasury auctions are also in focus.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s attention will be laser-focused on the final major inflation reports before the Federal Reserve’s pivotal September policy meeting. The Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday for August will be critical. While a 25bps rate cut is now seen as a certainty, the inflation data will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s new ‘dot plot’ and influencing the debate between a 25bps and a 50bps move. Another hot inflation print could create a difficult trade-off for the Fed, which is now clearly concerned about downside risks to employment. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) also meets on Thursday, and while it is expected to hold rates, President Lagarde’s commentary on the outlook will be key, especially with a potential political crisis brewing in France over budget cuts. A series of U.S. Treasury auctions will also be on the radar, as recent jitters about mounting national debt levels could impact long-term yields. Other key data includes UK GDP for July (Friday) and an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday to discuss production quotas.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets reversed course sharply on Friday, erasing early gains to close in negative territory after a dismal August jobs report provided fresh evidence of a dramatically slowing U.S. labor market. The economy added a mere 22,000 jobs, a significant miss from the 75,000 expected, while downward revisions revealed the first monthly job loss since 2020 occurred in June. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3%. The report immediately solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its September meeting, with traders now pricing in a 100% chance of a reduction and increasing bets for a more aggressive 50-basis-point move. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	45401	-220.18	-0.0048
S&P 500	6481	-20.56	-0.0032
Nasdaq	21700	-7.31	-0.0003
Russell 2000	2391	11.43	0.0048

The market reaction to the data was swift and decisive across asset classes. The U.S. Dollar sank to its lowest level since July, while U.S. Treasury yields tumbled, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest point since April. Gold prices surged on the prospect of lower interest rates and safe-haven demand, hitting a fresh all-time high.

 In the crypto space, Bitcoin remained relatively steady, consolidating around the 110,000 − 110,000− 113,000 level. After a brief push higher, it faced selling pressure, reflecting the broader market’s uncertainty but also its sensitivity to shifts in U.S. monetary policy expectations. However, at the start of the week Bitcoin fell to a 10-week low, dipping below $108,000, after on-chain data revealed that large holders, or “whales,” had moved approximately $4 billion worth of BTC to exchanges. Such movements are often interpreted as a precursor to selling, creating a bearish signal for the market.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of September 8th)

SUN (Sep 8): 

• OPEC+ Meeting: Ministers meet to discuss production quotas; sources suggest another output hike will be considered. 

MON (Sep 9): 

• French Confidence Vote: French parliament votes on the 2026 budget; a loss could trigger a snap election. 
• Apple (AAPL) Product Event

WED (Sep 11)

• US PPI (Aug): Producer price inflation; a key forward-looking indicator for CPI. 

THU (Sep 12): 

• European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision & Press Conference: Expected to hold rates at 2.0%. Focus on Lagarde’s tone and any hints of a prolonged pause vs. future cuts. 
• US CPI (Aug): Headline CPI exp. +2.8% Y/Y, Core CPI exp. 3.1% Y/Y (Cleveland Fed Nowcast). The last major inflation report before the FOMC meeting. 

FRI (Sep 13):

• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep – Prelim.): Consumer mood and, importantly, inflation expectations. 
• UK GDP (Jul – Monthly): Growth data for the UK. 
• Eurozone CPI Final (Aug): Final inflation readings for the Eurozone. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices surged to a new all-time high on Friday, with the December contract gaining 1.29% to settle at $3,653.30/oz. The rally was driven by a potent combination of safe-haven demand, questions over Fed independence, and a sharp increase in rate cut expectations following the weak jobs report. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	61.87	-1.61	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	65.5	-1.49	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3653.3	46.6	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1715	0.0066	Rate
USD/JPY	147.45	-1.03	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04087	-0.00088	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	110,670	-0.05	USD

Crude oil prices declined, with WTI falling 2.54% to $61.87/bbl, as the dismal jobs data dimmed the U.S. energy demand outlook, and markets braced for a potential OPEC+ production increase. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar was hit hard, with the DXY index falling to its lowest levels since early August.  The EUR/USD climbed towards the 1.1750 level as traders aggressively priced in a dovish Fed, while the GBP/USD erased its weekly losses to rally more than 1.4% off its lows. The USD/JPY pair also saw the dollar tumble, falling sharply toward the 147.00 level as plunging Treasury yields weighed heavily. U.S. Treasury yields tumbled across the curve, with the 10-year yield falling 9bps to 4.08%, its lowest level since April.