Closing Recap (Week Ending September 19) 

U.S. stocks continued their incredible run, with all four major indices hitting new record highs this week, propelled by a dovish Federal Reserve that cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled more easing to come. In currency markets, the US Dollar rebounded from four-year lows post-Fed as Chair Powell struck a cautious tone, with EUR/USD slipping on French political turmoil, GBP/USD falling below 1.35, and USD/JPY gaining traction. Gold struggled to find direction after the Fed cut, oil prices fell, and Bitcoin held key support.

Key Takeaways 

• Fed Rate Cut Sparks Record Highs: The S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all hit new all-time highs this week after the Fed cut rates by 25bps. The new dot plot signaled 100bps of total cuts through 2027. 
• Currency Pairs React to Divergent Policy: The US Dollar rebounded from multi-year lows post-FOMC; EUR/USD fell towards 1.1747 on French political risks, GBP/USD sank below 1.35 as the dollar strengthened, and USD/JPY bounced as the BoJ signaled potential for earlier hikes. 
• US-China Trade Optimism: Sentiment was boosted by a productive call between President Trump and President Xi, with plans for in-person meetings and progress on trade, fentanyl, and the TikTok deal.
• Gold Struggles Post-Fed, Oil Slips: Gold prices were volatile and struggled to post a fifth straight weekly gain after the Fed’s cautious tone. Oil prices fell for the week. 
• Bitcoin Holds Key Support: Bitcoin traded down 1.5% to around $116,000, holding above key support near $113,300 as traders assess the impact of the Fed’s easing. 
• Government Shutdown Risk Rises: The probability of a US government shutdown after Sept. 30th has risen to 56% as House Republicans face a tight vote on a stopgap funding bill. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: A heavy slate of Fed speakers will dominate the week, alongside key US data (GDP & PCE reports Thu/Fri) and Global Flash PMIs (Tue).

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market will enter a post-FOMC period focused on a heavy slate of Fedspeak and key economic data. After a blackout period, numerous Fed officials, including Chair Powell, are scheduled to speak next week, and their commentary will be intensely scrutinized for clues about the pace of future rate cuts. Key US data releases, including the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the PCE inflation report (Thursday and Friday), will be critical in shaping expectations for the remainder of the year. 

Internationally, preliminary “flash” PMIs for September from the US, UK, and Eurozone (Tuesday) will provide the first real-time glimpse into global economic activity for the month. Central banks in China, Sweden, and Switzerland are also on the calendar. Domestically, the rising probability of a U.S. government shutdown after September 30th adds a layer of political risk for investors to monitor.

Market Overview 

The fairytale story for U.S. stocks continued this week, as a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve sent all four major indices—the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000—to new all-time highs. The week was capped by the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that was accompanied by a new “dot plot” projecting a total of 100bps in cuts through 2027. This confirmation of a new easing cycle has fueled a six-month rally characterized by shallow dips and relentless buying, with investors pouring money into both mega-cap tech leaders and more speculative growth areas. Sentiment was further bolstered by positive developments in US-China relations, with President Trump announcing a “very productive call” with President Xi, signaling progress on trade and other key issues. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	46314	172.15	0.0037	0.63%
S&P 500	6664	32.43	0.0049	1.22%
Nasdaq	22631	160.75	0.0072	2.22%
Russell 2000	2448	-18.93	-0.0077	1.95%

The Fed’s decision triggered significant volatility across other asset classes. The U.S. Dollar, which had hit four-year lows ahead of the meeting, staged a sharp rebound as Fed Chair Powell struck a cautious tone about the future pace of easing, and some officials signaled a neutral stance. This dollar recovery weighed on the euro and pound. In the crypto space, Bitcoin traded near $116,000, down 1.5%, holding above key technical support levels as traders digested the implications of the Fed’s move and a massive options expiration event.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of September 22nd)

MON (Sep 23): 

• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Setting: Expected to hold rates steady. 
• Fed Speakers: Williams, Musalem, Miran. 
• EZ Consumer Confidence (Sep – Flash): Eurozone sentiment gauge. 

TUE (Sep 24): 

• Global Flash PMIs (Sep – EZ, UK, US): First look at September business activity. 
• Riksbank (Sweden) Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates by 25bps. 
• Fed Speakers: Powell, Bowman. 

WED (Sep 25): 

• Australian CPI (Aug – Monthly): Key inflation data for the RBA. 
• German Ifo Business Climate (Sep): Sentiment data for Germany. 
• Fed Speaker: Daly. 

THU (Sep 26): 

• Swiss National Bank (SNB) Rate Decision: Expected to hold rates at 0.0%. 
• US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), 
• GDP (Q2 – Final), PCE (Q2 – Final): Key US growth and inflation revisions. 
• Fed Speakers: Bowman, Barr, Williams. 

FRI (Sep 27): 

• Japanese Tokyo CPI (Sep): Key leading indicator for national inflation in Japan. 
• US PCE Price Index (Aug – Monthly), University of Michigan Sentiment (Sep – Final): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and final consumer mood data. 
• Fed Speaker: Bowman. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

December gold rose on Friday to settle at $3,705.80/oz, but struggled to post a fifth consecutive weekly gain as the US Dollar rebounded from multi-year lows following the Fed’s rate cut. The dollar’s strength was the main story in FX markets: the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1747, pressured by the dollar’s recovery and political turmoil in France over spending cuts. 

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	62.68	-0.89	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	66.68	-0.76	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3705.8	27.5	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1748	-0.0038	Rate
USD/JPY	147.92	-0.07	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04132	0.00029	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	116,033	-1.22%	USD

The GBP/USD pair sank below the 1.3500 threshold to its weakest level in two weeks, hit by both the “King Dollar” rebound and escalating concerns over UK fiscal risks. The USD/JPY pair also saw the dollar regain traction, bouncing strongly after the Fed’s projections for 2026 came in less dovish than some had anticipated. Crude oil prices (WTI) fell 1.4% on Friday to settle at $62.68/bbl. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.132% as investors digested the Fed’s cautious tone on future easing.