Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday, though the major indices finished well off their morning lows. An early sell-off saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again breach their key 50-day moving averages, but a late-day rebound attempt helped pare the losses. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors were the main laggards as concerns about stretched valuations in the AI space persist, particularly ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report on Wednesday. 

The Dow, which hit a record high just last week, has now shed 2,000 points in four sessions. In a sign of potential rotation, the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed. The U.S. dollar was little changed, while Treasury yields fell. Crude oil found a bid, but the most dramatic move was in the crypto market, where Bitcoin’s rebound from 7-month lows was a notable bright spot in a sea of red. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks Fall for 4th Straight Day: The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive loss as the tech-led pullback continues, though indices closed well off session lows. 
• Tech Remains the Laggard: Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the worst-performing sectors as the AI trade comes under further pressure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. 
• Bitcoin Rebounds Sharply from 7-Month Low: After crashing below $90,000, Bitcoin staged a powerful recovery, bouncing back above $93,000 in a sign of resilience. 
• Fed Rate Cut Bets Recede: The probability of a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve has fallen below 50%, providing a floor for the U.S. dollar as traders await FOMC minutes. 
• FOMC Minutes in Focus for December Clues: Traders are bracing for today’s release of the FOMC minutes, which are expected to reveal a divided committee and could influence the dwindling odds of a December rate cut.
• Pound Weakens as UK CPI Cements BoE Cut Bets: The British Pound is under pressure after an in-line but soft UK inflation report solidified market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December, with odds now at 85%.
• Oil Bounces: WTI crude oil rallied over 1% on inventory data, though Goldman Sachs remains bearish on the long-term outlook.
• All Eyes on Nvidia Earnings: The market is anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s Q3 results after the close on Wednesday, an event seen as a “make-or-break” moment for the entire AI sector. 
• Small Caps Outperform: In a potential silver lining, the small-cap Russell 2000 closed slightly higher, suggesting some rotation may be occurring beneath the surface of the headline declines. 

Market Overview

The market’s fearless rally has hit a wall of fear. A wave of intense selling swept through global markets for a second consecutive day. The bearish momentum that has gripped the market this week continued into Tuesday’s session. The initial move lower was technically driven, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decisively broke below their 50-day moving averages, a level that had acted as support for months. This breach has shaken investor confidence and opened the door for further downside. The core of the issue remains the technology sector. According to Bank of America’s latest survey, 45% of global fund managers now see an AI stock bubble as the market’s biggest “tail risk,” a dramatic shift in sentiment. The massive capex boom in the AI space, combined with warnings from high-profile investors and even Alphabet’s CEO, has created a palpable sense of anxiety. 

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	-498.56	-0.0107	46091
S&P 500	-55.08	-0.0083	6617
Nasdaq	-275.23	-0.0121	22432
Russell 2000	7.36	0.0031	2348

This makes tomorrow’s earnings report from Nvidia the most critical event of the week, if not the month. Expectations are sky-high, and anything less than a spectacular beat-and-raise could trigger another wave of selling across the entire tech ecosystem. While the macro picture is clouded by the lack of official data, recent private surveys like the ADP report have signaled a softening labor market. However, this has done little to boost hopes for a December Fed rate cut, with the odds now sitting at a coin flip. The market is caught in a difficult spot, grappling with fears of an AI bubble on one hand and an uncertain economic and policy outlook on the other. Today’s release of the FOMC minutes is expected to underscore this uncertainty, likely revealing a committee divided between hawkish members cautious about inflation and dovish members concerned about economic weakness.

Economic Calendar 

With the U.S. government back online, the market is awaiting a new schedule for the release of delayed economic reports. Today’s focus is on UK inflation data and the upcoming FOMC minutes. 

Data Released Yesterday/ Overnight: 

• U.S. ADP Weekly Jobs Data (Nov 1): Showed private employers shed an average of -2,500 jobs per week, a significant improvement from the prior period’s revised -14,250 average loss, but still indicating a soft labor market. 
• U.S. Factory Orders (Aug): A delayed release showed orders rose +1.4%, in line with consensus. U.S. 
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov): Rose to 38, slightly beating the consensus of 37, but the index for sales over the next six months declined.
• UK CPI (Oct): Cooled to +3.6% y/y from +3.8%, in line with expectations. However, the core rate and services component were both softer than anticipated, cementing bets for a December BoE rate cut. 
• Australian Wage Price Index (Q3): Came in exactly as expected at +0.8% q/q and +3.4% y/y. 
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (Sep): Surged +4.2% m/m, well above the +2.0% forecast, showing some underlying strength in business investment. Today’s 

Economic calendar for today:

• European Session: An extremely light calendar with only a few central bank speakers on the docket. 
• U.S. Session: The main event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the October 28-29 meeting. While somewhat dated, the minutes could provide insight into the committee’s thinking and the degree of division regarding future rate cuts. 
• After the Close: U.S. Q3 Earnings: The most important event of the day: Nvidia reports Q3 earnings. 
• A heavy slate of Fed speakers including Williams, Barkin, and Miran.

Asset Class Spotlight: FX, Commodities, Bonds & Crypto

Gold prices slipped for a fifth consecutive day, with December futures settling down -0.20% at $4,066.50 an ounce. The metal continues to be pressured by a relatively stable U.S. dollar and the sharp decline in market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. In contrast, crude oil prices found a bid, with WTI rallying 1.39% to settle at $60.74 a barrel, supported by the broad risk-on mood. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.83	0.0139	60.74
Gold	-8	-0.002	4066.5
EUR/USD	-0.0009	-0.0008	1.1581
USD/JPY	0.36	0.0023	155.6
Bitcoin	4,000+	4.5%+	93,000+
10-Year Note Yield	-0.004	-0.001	0.04128

The U.S. dollar was mostly range-bound as traders balanced receding Fed rate cut bets against a weaker risk tone, while the pound came under pressure from soft inflation data. 

• GBP/USD: The Pound is the biggest loser in the G10 space, tumbling towards 1.3100 after the soft UK inflation data. The pound is on the back foot after the in-line but dovish-leaning UK CPI report. With the market now pricing in an 85% chance of a December rate cut, the path of least resistance for the cable appears to be lower. A large $520M options expiry at the 1.3100 level provides a clear target for bears.
• EUR/USD: The pair is trading quietly below 1.1600 after a three-day losing streak. The euro is finding some support from the view that the ECB is firmly on hold, but a large option expiry at the 1.1600 level could cap the upside. A large $1.4B options expiry at the 1.1600 strike is acting as a powerful magnet. 
• USD/JPY: The pair remains elevated near 155.50, testing its recent highs. The yen is vulnerable as Japan’s government prepares a massive new stimulus package, reinforcing the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance and widening the policy divergence with the U.S. The new PM Takaichi will push for a massive ¥20 trillion stimulus package.A notable $1.26B options expiry at the 153.00 level sits below the current price.

Cryptocurrencies: After a brutal sell-off that saw Bitcoin crash to a 7-month low below $90,000, the crypto market staged a powerful rebound. Bitcoin bounced back above $93,000, providing a rare bright spot for risk assets. Billionaire Cameron Winklevoss even took to “X” to declare it the “last time you’ll ever be able to buy Bitcoin below $90k.” The move came as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a reading of 11, indicating “Extreme Fear.” U.S. Treasury yields ended lower as investors sought the safety of government bonds amidst the equity market sell-off. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to around 4.12% as the market awaits fresh economic data. 

Looking Ahead 

Today is all about Nvidia. The company’s earnings report and, more importantly, its forward guidance will be the single most important driver of market sentiment for the remainder of the week. A strong “beat and raise” could be enough to halt the tech sell-off and restore confidence in the AI narrative. However, any signs of slowing growth or a cautious outlook could trigger another significant leg down for the entire sector. Beyond Nvidia, traders will be parsing the FOMC minutes for any clues on the Fed’s thinking, but the stale nature of the report may limit its market impact.

What to Watch

• Nvidia’s “Make-or-Break” Earnings: This is the single most important event of the week. Expectations are sky-high, and the results will be a “truth serum” for the entire AI rally. Any sign of slowing growth or a cautious outlook could trigger a much deeper correction in the tech sector. 
• FOMC Minutes Nuance: The market will be parsing the minutes for any details on the Fed’s internal debate. With December rate cut odds now below 50%, any hints of a growing consensus to pause could send the dollar higher and stocks lower. The 
• Bitcoin Capitulation and Reversal: The crash below $90,000 and the subsequent sharp rebound from “Extreme Fear” is a classic capitulation setup. Traders will be watching to see if this marks a durable bottom or if another wave of selling emerges. 
• The 50-Day Moving Average Battle: The S&P 500 is now trading below its 50-day moving average. This level will now act as a key resistance point. A failure to reclaim it would be a bearish technical signal, suggesting the correction has further to run.