Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mixed after a late rebound salvaged early losses, closing out a difficult March dominated by tariff fears; gold surged to another record high, oil prices jumped on supply concerns, and Treasury yields eased slightly. 

Key Takeaways 

• Mixed Close After Rebound: Stocks recovered from morning lows, but the Nasdaq still finished slightly negative, while the Dow posted gains. 
• Brutal March/Q1 Concludes: Major averages suffered significant declines in March and Q1, primarily driven by tariff impact fears and economic slowdown concerns. Nasdaq had its worst month/quarter since 2022. 
• Tariff Anxiety Peaks: Anticipation is high for President Trump’s April 3rd announcement on reciprocal tariffs, keeping markets on edge. 
• Gold Hits New Record: Safe-haven demand continued to propel gold prices to unprecedented levels. 
• Oil Surges: Crude oil prices rallied sharply on tariff-related supply worries and geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Iran. 
• Tech Weakness Persists: The technology sector remains under pressure due to earnings concerns, IT spending worries, fading GenAI hype, and broader economic fears. 
• Jobs Data in Focus: Key labor market reports (JOLTS, ADP, NFP) are due throughout the week. 
• Goldman Cuts Target Again: Goldman Sachs lowered its S&P 500 forecast further, citing tariff and recession risks. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equities navigated another volatile session, initially succumbing to selling pressure before mounting a significant rebound to finish the day mixed. Despite the late-day recovery, the session marked the end of a punishing March and first quarter for major indices. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 experienced their worst monthly and quarterly performances since late 2022, while the S&P 500 also posted substantial declines. This weakness stems from persistent fears about the negative economic consequences of impending tariffs, concerns about slowing consumer spending, and recent technical breakdowns in key indices. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	417.49	0.01	42001
S&P 500	30.97	0.0055	5611
Nasdaq	-23.7	-0.0014	17299
Russell 2000	-11.37	-0.0056	2011

Sentiment remains fragile ahead of President Trump’s scheduled Rose Garden event on April 3rd, where he is expected to detail his administration’s plans for reciprocal tariffs. This uncertainty, coupled with a heavy week of crucial jobs data (starting with JOLTS tomorrow), kept investors cautious. 

The negative sentiment wasn’t confined to the U.S., with European indices closing sharply lower, hitting multi-week lows, and Asian markets also posting significant losses earlier, reflecting the global nature of tariff concerns. Adding to the cautious mood, Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin again lowered his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,700, emphasizing the risks posed by higher tariffs and potential recession, leading to reduced earnings growth forecasts.

Economic Data

Today’s economic data offered some regional bright spots but occurred against a backdrop of weak global PMI readings and anticipation of major U.S. jobs reports. 

• Chicago PMI (Mar): Rose to 47.6, beating the consensus of 44.5 and February’s 45.0. While still below the 50 expansion threshold, it broke a three-month streak of declines. 
• Dallas Fed Mfg. Activity (Mar): The general business activity index worsened to -16.3 from -8.3 in February. However, the key manufacturing output index rebounded sharply to 6.0 from -9.1. 
• China Official PMI (Mar): Showed improvement, with Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.5 (vs. 50.4 est. & 50.2 prior) and Non-Manufacturing PMI increasing to 50.8 (vs. 50.6 est. & 50.4 prior). 
• Japan Industrial Production (Feb): Rebounded strongly month-over-month, rising +2.5% (vs. +2.0% est.), the fastest pace in nearly a year, potentially boosted by pre-tariff activity. However, the year-over-year figure (+0.3%) missed expectations (+1.2%). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices continued their record-setting ascent, with June futures climbing 1.16% to settle above $3,150 per ounce. The metal’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge was amplified by escalating trade war fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that tariffs could slow growth while boosting prices. Central bank buying and ETF inflows remain supportive factors, contributing to gold’s nearly 19% year-to-date gain. Oil prices surged, with WTI crude gaining over 3% to settle at a five-week high above $71/bbl. The rally was fueled by concerns that tariffs could disrupt supply chains, alongside President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers and harsh rhetoric towards Iran regarding its nuclear program. Despite the daily gain, front-month WTI crude finished Q1 slightly lower. The U.S. dollar was mixed, easing slightly against the euro but gaining against the yen. Treasury yields dipped marginally, with the 10-year note yield settling around 4.246%.

Asset	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	2.12	71.48
Brent	1.11	74.74
Gold	36	3150.2
EUR/USD	-0.0012	1.0815
USD/JPY	0.23	150.05
10-Year Note	-0.01	0.04246

Looking Ahead 

Market focus intensifies on President Trump’s planned tariff announcement on April 3rd. The details (or lack thereof) will be critical for near-term market direction. Additionally, a heavy slate of labor market data is due this week, starting with the JOLTS job openings report tomorrow, followed by ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, and the official Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. These reports will provide crucial insights into the health of the U.S. economy amid the ongoing tariff uncertainty.