Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks staged a stunning last-minute rally to finish mixed after spending most of the day sharply lower on weak GDP and jobs data; gold and oil fell, while Treasury yields ended flat after earlier declines ahead of key tech earnings. 

Key Takeaways 

• Massive Late Surge: Stocks spiked in the final minutes, pushing the S&P 500 positive and extending its win streak to 7 days, erasing deep intraday losses. 
• Weak Economic Data: Markets initially sold off on disappointing Q1 GDP (first contraction since 2022), weak ADP jobs data, and a miss on Chicago PMI. 
• Inflation Signals Mixed: Advance Q1 Core PCE came in hot, but monthly March Core PCE was benign (unchanged), adding to confusion. 
• Intraday Volatility: Extreme swings characterized the session, driven by data releases and likely month-end positioning. 
• Oil Plunges: WTI crude dropped sharply on GDP demand fears and potential Saudi supply stance. 
• Gold Slips: Gold eased despite the risk-off tone for most of the day. 
• Yields Flat After Swings: Treasury yields ended little changed after falling early on weak data. 
• Sentiment Remains Fearful: Despite the rally streak, fear metrics remain extremely low. 

Market Overview 

In a wild end-of-month session, U.S. stocks executed an impressive late-day surge, rescuing major averages from significant losses and extending the S&P 500’s remarkable winning streak to seven days. The market spent most of the day under heavy pressure following a trifecta of disappointing economic news. The advance reading of Q1 GDP showed an unexpected contraction (-0.3%), the first since 2022, while the ADP private payroll report came in significantly below expectations, and the Chicago PMI also missed forecasts. Adding to the complexity, while the advance Q1 Core PCE price index within the GDP report was hotter than expected, the separate monthly March Core PCE reading came in benignly unchanged. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	141.74	0.0035	40669
S&P 500	8.19	0.0015	5569
Nasdaq	-14.98	-0.0009	17446
Russell 2000	-12.4	-0.0063	1964

This mix of weak growth and conflicting inflation signals initially sent stocks tumbling, with breadth heavily favoring decliners (nearly 6:1) and small caps underperforming significantly. Defensive sectors like Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate were relative outperformers during the sell-off. However, in the final hour, and particularly the last 15 minutes, a powerful wave of buying swept through the market in a typical “month-end mark up” fashion, pushing the S&P 500 and Dow into positive territory, while the Nasdaq pared most of its losses. This occurred despite lingering uncertainty around global trade/tariffs and extremely low investor sentiment readings. The resilience shown in the face of negative data highlights the market’s recent “buy the dip” mentality, though the sustainability of this streak amid underlying fear remains a question, especially heading into key earnings reports after the bell from Meta and Microsoft.

Economic Data

Yesterday’s economic data deluge painted a picture of slowing growth, mixed inflation signals, but still solid consumer activity, creating confusion for markets. 

• ADP Private Employment (Apr): Increased only +62K, well below the +115K consensus estimate, the lowest since July 2024. 
• Chicago PMI (Apr): Fell to 44.6, missing the 45.5 consensus and down from 47.6 prior. 
• Q1 GDP (Advance): Contracted -0.3% annualized (vs. positive est., 1st negative since 2022). Final Sales -2.5%. Consumer Spending +1.8%. GDP Deflator hot at +3.7% (vs. 3.0% est.). PCE Price Index +3.6%, Core PCE Price Index +3.5% (vs. +3.3% est.). 
• PCE Inflation (Mar – Monthly): Headline PCE Price Index unchanged m/m (matching consensus, vs +0.4% prior). Core PCE Price Index unchanged m/m (vs. +0.1% est., vs +0.5% prior). 
• PCE Inflation (Mar – Annual): Headline PCE +2.3% y/y (vs. +2.2% est.). Core PCE +2.6% y/y (matching consensus). 
• Pending Home Sales (Mar): Jumped +6.1% m/m (vs. +1.0% est.). Fell -0.1% y/y. 
• China PMIs (Apr – Reported Earlier): Official Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.0 (vs. 49.8 est.). Non-manufacturing PMI eased to 50.4. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold futures settled lower by $14.50 (-0.43%) at $3,319.10 per ounce, caught in the “sell-everything” mood that dominated most of the session despite weak GDP potentially boosting Fed cut hopes later. Tariff uncertainty likely still provides underlying support. WTI crude oil futures plunged $2.21 (-3.66%) to settle at $58.21/bbl. The sharp drop was driven by the negative Q1 GDP print fueling demand destruction fears, compounded by headlines suggesting Saudi Arabia could tolerate prolonged low prices, implying no imminent supply cuts. Treasury yields ended the day flat after significant volatility, largely unchanged for the month despite the recent turbulence. The 10-year yield settled at 4.173% after dipping earlier on the weak data. Shorter-term yields saw larger declines over the month. The U.S. dollar was mixed, gaining slightly against the Yen but weakening against the Euro. 

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-2.21	USD/bbl	58.21
Brent	-1.13	USD/bbl	63.12
Gold	-14.5	USD/oz	3319.1
EUR/USD	-0.0036	USD	1.1348
USD/JPY	0.55	JPY	142.91
10-Year Note	0.002	%	0.04173

Looking Ahead 

Key earnings reports from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) after the bell tonight will be critical for setting the tone for the tech sector and broader market tomorrow. The turbulent month of April concludes, leaving investors to ponder the “Sell in May” adage amid persistent tariff uncertainty and mixed economic signals. Upcoming data, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the official April jobs report on Friday, will provide further crucial insights into the economy’s health and potential Fed policy path.