Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks closed higher, capping a strong month, quarter, and first half of the year with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new record highs, as positive trade news with Canada bolstered investor sentiment; the dollar hit multi-year lows, Treasury yields fell, and gold prices rose. 

Key Takeaways 

• Record Close for S&P & Nasdaq: Major indices finished a strong month and quarter at or near record highs, driven by a powerful multi-week rally. 
• Strong Monthly & Quarterly Gains: S&P 500 gained ~5% in June and ~10.6% in Q2; Nasdaq jumped ~6.6% in June and ~17.8% in Q2. 
• Positive Canada Trade News: Markets found support after the U.S. agreed to resume trade talks with Canada following their withdrawal of a digital-services tax. 
• Dollar Hits Multi-Year Lows: The U.S. dollar weakened significantly, with the Euro hitting a 4-year high against the greenback. 
• Yields & Oil Slip, Gold Rises: Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year hitting its lowest since early May. Oil prices also slipped, while gold prices gained. 
• Chicago PMI Disappoints: Regional manufacturing data from Chicago PMI for June showed activity contracting for a 19th consecutive month, though the prices paid component rose. 
• Busy Jobs Week Ahead: Markets now look to a holiday-shortened week packed with key labor market data, including JOLTS, ADP, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets concluded the final day of the month, quarter, and first half of the year with another day of solid gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new record closing highs. The session capped a remarkable rebound from the tariff-induced lows of April, with major indices posting their best quarterly performance since late 2023. Positive momentum continued today after news that the U.S. and Canada have agreed to resume trade talks, a development that followed Canada’s decision to withdraw a planned digital-services tax. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	275.5	0.0063	44094
S&P 500	31.88	0.0052	6204
Nasdaq	96.28	0.0048	20369
Russell 2000	2.51	0.0012	2175

Stocks held in a relatively tight range for most of the day before climbing higher into the close. Technology, Financials, and Industrials led the advance, while Energy and Consumer Discretionary lagged. The Nasdaq saw strength from some of its large-cap momentum favorites like Oracle and Apple. While the trade backdrop with Canada and the EU appears to be improving, President Trump injected a note of caution this afternoon with a Truth Social post criticizing Japan’s refusal to accept U.S. rice imports, suggesting further trade friction could be on the horizon. 

Economic data released today was a focus, with the Chicago PMI for June indicating that regional manufacturing activity has now been in contraction for 19 consecutive months. The report’s prices paid component also climbed to its highest level since May 2022, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures even as activity weakens. Despite this, the market’s focus remained on the positive trade narrative and the prospect of future Fed easing, which has been a key driver of the recent rally.

Economic Data

Yesterday’s main economic release was the Chicago PMI, which showed a prolonged contraction in regional manufacturing activity alongside rising price pressures. 

• Chicago PMI (June): 40.4 (Below 43.0 consensus, vs. 40.5 May). This is the 19th consecutive month of contraction and the lowest reading since January. New Orders improved slightly, but Production, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries fell. The Prices Paid index rose to its highest since May 2022. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices finished higher, with futures gaining $20.10 to settle at $3,307.10 per ounce, finding support from a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing demand for inflation hedges. Crude oil prices slipped, with WTI down $0.41 (-0.63%) to settle at $65.11/bbl, as investors weighed easing Middle East risks against potential OPEC+ output increases. The U.S. dollar continued its sharp decline, with the Euro reaching a 4-year high against the greenback.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.41	USD/bbl	65.11
Brent	-0.16	USD/bbl	67.61
Gold	20.1	USD/oz	3307.1
EUR/USD	0.0043	USD	1.1762
USD/JPY	-0.45	JPY	144.2
10-Year Note	-0.047	%	0.04235

The dollar’s weakness comes as markets digest a combination of easing U.S. inflation data from last month and President Trump’s continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 5 basis points to 4.235%, its lowest level since early May, reflecting concerns about economic growth and expectations for future Fed policy easing.

Looking Ahead 

This is a holiday-shortened trading week, with U.S. markets closed on Friday for the 4th of July. However, it is packed with critical labor market data, including the JOLTS job openings report and ISM manufacturing tomorrow, followed by the ADP private payrolls report, and culminating in the official Nonfarm Payrolls report for June. Seasonally, the first trading day of July has historically been very strong for stocks. Investors will also be watching for any further developments on the trade front with the EU and Japan.