Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks delivered an impressive performance to close the week, hitting fresh record highs on the back of a “Goldilocks” jobs report. The S&P 500 (+0.65% Friday) and Dow (+0.48%) rallied as Nonfarm Payrolls came in at +50k—soft enough to keep Fed cut hopes alive, yet strong enough (with Unemployment dropping to 4.4%) to quell recession fears. The Nasdaq led the weekly gains (+1.88%) as the “Magnificent Seven” and semis (Micron +7%) rebounded. However, the calm in equities belies a storm in hard assets: Silver is in a historic squeeze, piercing $80/oz amid Chinese export restrictions, while Gold hit $4,500. Geopolitics remains a live wire with the U.S. escalating military pressure on Venezuela and “land grab” rhetoric regarding Greenland.

Key Takeaways (The Week in 60 Seconds) 

• Stocks Hit Record Highs on “Goldilocks” Jobs Data: U.S. markets surged to fresh all-time highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.57% for the week. Investors cheered a payrolls report that was soft enough to keep rate cuts on the table for 2026, but strong enough to dismiss recession fears. 
• Fed “Hold” Pricing: Following the mixed jobs data, markets now price a 95% chance the Fed holds rates steady in late January (up from 68%).
• Supreme Court Delays Tariff Ruling: A potential volatility event was sidestepped as the Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on President Trump’s tariffs on Friday. Expectations have shifted to a potential ruling on Wednesday, Jan 14, keeping markets in suspense. 
• Silver Squeeze Intensifies: Silver was the standout performer, surging over 3.5% Friday to pierce $80/oz. Prices are being driven by China’s new export restrictions and bubble warnings, with the metal now outperforming almost every major asset class. 
• Dollar Jumps, Yen Crumbles to 1-Year Low: The U.S. Dollar Index rose for a fourth straight day following the jobs data. The Japanese Yen weakened past the 158.00 handle for the first time in a year, pressured by the divergence in yields and reports of a potential snap election in Japan in mid-February. 
• Bitcoin Stabilizes: BTC held the $90,000 level, shrugging off massive ETF outflows ($244M from IBIT) and ‘bear market’ technical calls.
• Geopolitical Shock: Trump Escalates in Venezuela: The market narrative shifted with news that Venezuelan President Maduro was transferred to the U.S. to face charges, and U.S. firms are preparing to invest in Venezuelan oil infrastructure. This, alongside potential expansionist moves toward Greenland, is keeping gold bid near $4,500. 
• Fed Pause Likely in January: Futures markets are now pricing a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at the January 27-28 meeting, up from 68% a month ago. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Inflation & Earnings: The focus shifts from jobs to prices with US CPI (Tue) and PPI (Wed). Additionally, Q4 earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan and other major banks. 

Looking Ahead 

The “vibe” for next week shifts from Jobs to Prices & Profits. With the labor market confirmed as “cooling but intact,” the spotlight turns to Tuesday’s CPI and the start of Earnings Season. The macro backdrop is getting messier. While equities enjoy a “soft landing” narrative, commodities are screaming “scarcity.” The divergence between paper assets (stocks) and hard assets (Silver/Gold) is widening. Additionally, President Trump’s aggressive foreign policy (Venezuela strikes, Greenland talks) suggests geopolitical risk premiums could return to Oil markets aggressively at any moment.

Sentiment: Bullish. The S&P 500 is on an 8-month winning streak. The “Santa Rally” momentum has extended into January.Global Risk: Japan is a flashpoint. With the Yen crumbling to 158 and a potential snap election, the Bank of Japan is in a bind. If they don’t intervene soon, the carry trade remains wide open.

Weekly Market Narrative: Goldilocks and the Geopolitical Shift

Wall Street ended the week in celebration mode. The December Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered exactly what the bulls wanted: 50,000 new jobs (vs. 60k expected) and an unemployment rate dipping to 4.4%. This “Goldilocks” print suggests the labor market is cooling but not collapsing, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative. With the S&P 500 closing just shy of the 7,000 milestone and market breadth at its strongest since August (69% of stocks above their 50-DMA), the path of least resistance remains higher. However, the macro backdrop is becoming increasingly complex. While the Supreme Court delayed its tariff ruling, providing short-term relief, geopolitical temperatures are rising. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Daily Change	Weekly Change %	Trend
DJ Industrials	49504	237.96	0.0232	Bullish
S&P 500	6966	44.82	0.0157	Bullish
Nasdaq	23671	191.33	0.0188	Bullish
Russell 2000	2624	20.25	0.0078	Bullish

President Trump’s aggressive moves regarding Venezuela and reported interest in Greenland have introduced new variables. These moves helped put a floor under oil prices and kept safe-haven assets like gold near record highs, even as equities rallied. The market is effectively pricing in a robust U.S. economy fueled by aggressive foreign policy and deregulation, even if it means the Fed pauses its rate cuts in January.

The Week Ahead: January 12 – 16, 2026 

Investors face a jam-packed week featuring the critical CPI report, the start of bank earnings, and a potential landmark Supreme Court ruling. Economic Calendar Highlights: 

MON (Jan 12): 

• BoJ Summary of Opinions: Investors will look for any pushback against the Yen’s slide to 158. 

TUE (Jan 13):

• US CPI (Dec): The Main Event. Consensus is for headline CPI to hold at 2.7%. A cooler number could revive hopes for an early spring rate cut; a hot number locks in the January Fed pause. 
• UK Employment (Nov): Critical for the Bank of England. Weakness here could hurt GBP. 
• Earnings: JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of New York (BK) kick off Q4 earnings season. 

WED (Jan 14): 

• US Retail Sales & PPI (Nov): Note: Delayed data. Markets will finally get a look at November consumer spending. 
• Supreme Court Ruling (Potential): Reports indicate the Supreme Court is expected to issue rulings today. If the Trump tariff case is decided, expect massive volatility in global trade-exposed stocks. 
• Earnings: Wells Fargo (WFC), Citi (C), and Bank of America (BAC). 

THU (Jan 15): 

• Australian Employment: Key for the RBA’s interest rate outlook. 
• Earnings: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and BlackRock (BLK). 

FRI (Jan 16): 

• China GDP (Q4): A major health check on the Chinese economy (Consensus 4.8% YoY). 
• Eurozone CPI (Final): Confirmation of inflation trends in Europe. 
• Earnings: PNC and State Street (STT).

Asset Class Spotlight: Commodities, Currencies, Crypto & Treasuries

Commodities are witnessing historic moves. Silver is in a full-blown squeeze, trading near $80/oz. China’s export restrictions have panicked industrial buyers, creating a physical shortage narrative. Silver is currently the world’s most volatile asset. Prices pierced $80 before settling near $79.73. The driver is structural: China (gatekeeper of 60-70% of refined silver) has restricted exports effective Jan 1. With 5 US banks reportedly facing billions in short losses, a “short squeeze” is active. Gold rallied back to $4,500 (+0.89% Friday), now accounting for 28% of global reserves—more than the Euro, Yen, and Pound combined. WTI Crude rebounded 2.35% on Friday to $59.12, supported by U.S. military moves in Venezuela, which threaten to disrupt short-term supply despite long-term oversupply fears.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Weekly Change / Note
WTI Crude	59.12	1.36	+2.35% (Supported by Venezuela Tensions)
Brent Crude	63.34	1.35	+4.25% (Outperforming WTI)
Gold (Feb)	4500.9	40.2	+0.89% (Near All-Time Highs)
Silver	79.73	2.74	+3.56% (China Export Squeeze)
EUR/USD	1.1636	-0.0022	-0.70% (6th Straight Down Day)
USD/JPY	157.91	1.04	+1.5% approx (1-Year Highs)
10-Year Note	0.04169	-0.014	Yields Mixed on NFP Data
Bitcoin	90443	-0.01	Consolidating (-1% Daily)

A weekly recap: the currency market was defined by U.S. Dollar strength and Japanese Yen weakness. 

• USD/JPY: The pair surged past the critical 158.00 level for the first time in a year. The Yen is being battered by a “perfect storm”: a resilient U.S. economy, the BoJ’s slow tightening pace, and new political instability with PM Takaichi considering a snap election for February. The risk of intervention is high, but the trend remains relentlessly bullish for the pair. 
• EUR/USD: The pair suffered its sixth consecutive down day on Friday being in freefall, closing the week down 0.70% near 1.1636. The Euro is struggling against the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and the widening policy divergence, as the Fed looks to pause while the ECB deals with sluggish growth. Divergence is key: The US economy added jobs (50k), while the Eurozone faces recessionary PMI data.
• GBP/USD: Sterling slipped to 1.3402 (-0.43% for the week). Mixed U.S. data wasn’t enough to save the Pound, which is consolidating as traders await next week’s UK employment data to gauge the BoE’s next move. 

Bitcoin held steady near $90,400. The asset stabilized as the Supreme Court delay eased immediate macro jitters, but it continues to underperform equities, trading sideways while stocks hit fresh highs. In Crypto, Bitcoin speculators are net short (-734 contracts in COT), suggesting sentiment is washed out. If $90k holds, a contrarian bounce is possible. Treasury yields were mixed (2Y up, 10Y down), reflecting a curve that is pricing in a “Fed Hold” (short end up) but “Slower Growth” (long end down). 

What to Watch Next Week

• The Inflation Test: Tuesday’s US CPI report is the final hurdle for the bull market in the short term. With the Fed likely pausing in January, a tame inflation print is needed to keep the “cuts are coming later” narrative intact. If inflation accelerates, yields could spike, pressuring the high-flying tech sector.
  • Hot Print (>2.9%): Confirms the “Fed Hold.” Yields spike, Tech/Gold may dip, Dollar rips. 
  • Cool Print (<2.5%): Revives “March Cut” hopes. Stocks (Small Caps) and Silver go parabolic.
• The Yen “Trap” & Election Risk: USD/JPY has broken 158, the weakest level in a year. With PM Takaichi eyeing a snap election for mid-February, the political stakes are massive. A collapsing Yen fuels inflation (bad for votes), but aggressive rate hikes could crash the market (also bad for votes). Watch for Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention if the pair approaches 160. The government cannot afford a currency crisis during a campaign.
• Bank Earnings & The Consumer: The big banks (JPM, BAC, WFC) report this week. Beyond the profit numbers, pay close attention to CEO commentary on loan demand and credit card delinquencies. This will provide the “real” view of the US consumer that lagged government data might miss. 
• The Supreme Court Wildcard: Wednesday is the new watch date for the Supreme Court’s ruling on Presidential tariff powers. A ruling limiting Trump’s power could be bullish for global trade stocks; a ruling affirming it could trigger a sell-off in importers and a rally in the Dollar. If Trump is granted broad emergency tariff powers, expect a knee-jerk selloff in importers (Retail/Electronics) and a spike in the US Dollar.
• Silver’s “Bubble” Dynamics: With Silver nearing $80 and China restricting exports, the market is in a squeeze. Watch for extreme volatility—parabolic moves often end in sharp corrections, but the structural shortage story suggests buying on dips.