Closing Recap

U.S. stock markets ended a volatile week with a very quiet and low-volume session on Friday, trading mostly sideways as investors cautiously awaited the outcome of crucial weekend trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)
DJ Industrials	41249	-119.07	-0.0029
S&P 500	5659	-4.03	-0.0007
Nasdaq	17928	0.78	0
Russell 2000	2023	-3.34	-0.0016

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the immediate market focus will be laser-sharp on the outcome of the US-China trade talks in Geneva (Saturday). Any signs of de-escalation, particularly a concrete reduction in tariffs (sources suggest a possible cut to 50-54% during negotiations), could spark a relief rally in risk assets. Conversely, a lack of progress or firm stances could renew market anxieties. Beyond trade, the week is packed with crucial economic data. Inflation figures from China (Saturday) and the US (Tuesday) will be closely watched for signs of persistent deflationary pressures in China and the trajectory of US price levels. Key labor market reports from the UK (Tuesday) and Australia (Thursday) will offer insights into employment trends.

Furthermore, Q1 GDP growth estimates from the UK (Thursday), Eurozone (Thursday), and Japan (Friday) will provide important snapshots of economic health across major developed economies. The US economic calendar is particularly dense, featuring NFIB small business optimism, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production, all of which will be scrutinized for their implications for growth and Fed policy.

Key Takeaways 

• Rangebound Friday: Major US indices saw minimal movement, reflecting investor caution ahead of US-China trade talks. The S&P 500 (-0.5%), Dow (-0.2%), and Nasdaq (-0.3%) all finished the week slightly lower. 
• Trade Talks Dominate: Weekend meeting in Geneva between US (Bessent, Greer) and Chinese officials is the primary focus. President Trump hinted at potential tariff reductions (to 80% from 145% on China), though analysts still see this as high. 
• Central Banks on Sidelines: FOMC and BoE policy meetings this past week resulted in minimal market reaction, with broader markets fixated on trade. 
• Gold and Oil Advance: Gold prices rose on Friday, finishing the week up ~3%, boosted by a softer dollar. Oil prices also gained, posting their first weekly increase since mid-April on optimism from the US-UK trade deal and ahead of US-China talks. 
• Bitcoin Surges: Bitcoin continued its strong rally, topping the $103,000 mark.

Market Overview 

Wall Street experienced one of its quietest trading sessions in weeks on Friday, with major U.S. stock indices meandering between small gains and losses before finishing mostly flat to slightly lower. The subdued activity reflected a market holding its breath ahead of a pivotal weekend meeting between high-level U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Geneva, Switzerland. This meeting is seen as a critical juncture following the escalation of tariff tensions in April. Earlier on Friday, President Trump opened the door to potentially lowering tariffs on China from the current 145% peak to around 80%, though some analysts viewed this level as still too high to significantly ease trade frictions. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett indicated that U.S. negotiators were approaching the talks “with an open mind.” 

The intense focus on these trade negotiations largely overshadowed other market events, including the recent policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which produced minimal market impact. While individual company earnings continued to drive stock-specific moves, the broader market narrative remains overwhelmingly dictated by the prospects of trade deals, tariffs, and their subsequent impact on global economic growth. In other markets, Bitcoin extended its impressive rally above $103,000. Gold prices advanced as the dollar softened, and oil prices rose, posting their first weekly gain since mid-April, buoyed by optimism following a US-UK trade agreement and ahead of the US-China discussions. For the week, however, major U.S. stock indices registered modest losses.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of May 12th) 

SAT (May 11): 

• US-China Trade Talks (Geneva): Outcome is the primary market focus. Potential for tariff reductions (rumored 50-54% from 145%) vs. continued firm stances. 
• China CPI & PPI (Apr): CPI exp. -0.1% Y/Y (unch.), PPI exp. -2.8% Y/Y (vs. -2.5%). Expected to show persistent deflationary pressures. 

MON (May 13): 

• Eurogroup Meeting: Discussions among Eurozone finance ministers. 

TUE (May 14): 

• BoJ Summary of Opinions (Apr 30-May 1 Meeting): Details on BoJ’s thinking; statement was dovish-leaning with growth/inflation forecasts cut, highlighting trade uncertainties. 
• UK Unemployment Rate & Avg. Earnings (Mar), Claimant Count (Apr): ILO Unemployment exp. 4.5% (from 4.4%), 3M/YY Earnings (ex-bonus) exp. 5.7% (from 5.9%). Data quality issues noted, but watched for labor market weakening. 
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): Investor confidence gauge. 
• US NFIB Small Business Optimism (Apr): Business sentiment indicator. 
• US CPI (Apr): Headline exp. +0.3% M/M (from +0.1%), Core exp. +0.3% M/M (from +0.1%). Annual Core CPI exp. steady at 2.8% Y/Y. 

WED (May 15): 

• Riksbank Minutes (May Meeting): Insights from meeting where Riksbank held rates but opened door to future easing. 
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR): Supply/demand outlook. 
• Australian Wage Price Index (Q1): Key wage inflation measure for RBA. 

THU (May 16): 

• Banxico (Mexico) Policy Announcement: Central bank rate decision. 
• IEA Oil Market Report (OMR): Global oil market assessment. 
• Australian Employment Report (Apr): Jobs added exp. +25k, Unemployment Rate exp. steady at 4.1%. 
• UK GDP Estimate (Mar) & Prelim GDP (Q1): March monthly GDP exp. +0.1% (from +0.5%), Q1 Q/Q GDP exp. +0.6% (Pantheon Macro). Precedes major tariff impacts. 
• EZ Flash GDP (Q1): Preliminary estimate of Eurozone growth. 
• US PPI (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr): Retail Sales exp. +0.1% M/M (ex-autos +0.3%). Key US activity data. 
• US NY Fed & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Surveys (May), Initial Jobless Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index (May): Further US indicators. 

FRI (May 17): 

• Japan Prelim GDP (Q1): Expected to show a mild contraction (-0.1% Q/Q, -0.2% annualized) due to weak external demand. 
• EZ Trade Balance (Mar): Eurozone trade figures. 
• US Building Permits & Housing Starts (Apr), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Sentiment (May), Export/Import Prices (Apr): Closing out the US data week.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices rose on Friday, settling near $3,344/oz, and finished the week approximately 3% higher. The yellow metal benefited from a pullback in the US dollar ahead of the critical US-China trade talks. Oil prices also saw gains on Friday, with WTI crude settling above $61/bbl. Both WTI and Brent benchmarks posted weekly gains of over 4%, their first since mid-April, driven by optimism from a US-UK trade agreement and anticipation of the US-China negotiations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower on Friday, paring some of its gains from Thursday. The 10-Year Treasury yield closed the week slightly lower around 4.369%.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	61.02	1.11	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	63.91	1.07	USD/bbl
Gold (June Fut.)	3344	38	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.1262	0.0035	Rate
USD/JPY	145.22	-0.7	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04369	-0.00004	Yield (%)