Closing Recap

U.S. stocks finished mixed with a slight upward bias, as strength in select mega-caps and small caps offset broader caution ahead of key U.S.-China trade talk outcomes; gold and oil edged higher, the dollar slipped, and Treasury yields declined. 

Key Takeaways 

• Focus on U.S.-China Trade Talks: Markets keenly awaited news from ongoing trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials in London. VIX Remains Low: Market volatility expectations stayed subdued, with the 
• VIX near late February lows, indicating low perceived fear. 
• Inflation Expectations Ease: NY Fed survey showed consumers expect lower inflation over the next year, three years, and five years. 
• Oil & Gold Gain: Crude oil prices extended recent gains amid trade deal optimism, while gold edged higher on a weaker dollar. Bitcoin also rallied. 
• Dollar Slips, Yields Fall: The U.S. dollar index declined, and Treasury yields eased ahead of key inflation data and Treasury auctions this week. 
• Sector Divergence: Discretionary, Materials, and Technology led gains, while Utilities, Financials, and Communications lagged. 
• Citi Raises S&P Target: Citigroup increased its year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,300, citing a more constructive fundamental view. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets navigated a relatively quiet session to start the week, finishing mixed but with a slight upward tilt as investors awaited concrete news from the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations in London. After significant gains last week, driven by optimism over a potential trade détente, markets appeared to be in a holding pattern. Strength in several mega-cap technology stocks (Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Tesla) provided a lift to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 also posted solid gains, indicating some appetite for smaller companies. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished virtually unchanged. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-0.11	0	42761
S&P 500	5.52	0.0009	6005
Nasdaq	31.28	0.0016	19591
Russell 2000	12.26	0.0057	2144

The primary focus remained on the high-stakes trade talks between top U.S. and Chinese officials. These discussions follow a preliminary agreement struck last month and a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi last Thursday, which aimed to de-escalate tensions. The market is also anticipating potential news on the domestic tax bill, details from Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, and Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi event. 

Economic data released today included a New York Fed survey showing a notable decline in consumer inflation expectations across various time horizons, which could be a positive sign for future price pressures. Wholesale inventory and sales data for April were largely in line. Despite the recent market turbulence and ongoing uncertainties, volatility expectations, as measured by the CBOE VIX index, remained remarkably low. Citigroup analysts also added a bullish note, raising their year-end S&P 500 price target.

Economic Calendar

Yesterday’s U.S. economic calendar featured the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and Wholesale Trade data.

• NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (May): 
• 1-Year Ahead Inflation: 3.2% (Down from 3.6% prior) 
• 3-Year Ahead Inflation: 3.0% (Down from 3.2% prior) 
• 5-Year Ahead Inflation: 2.6% (Down from 2.7% prior) 
• Wholesale Inventories (Apr – Revised): +0.2% (Matching consensus, from 0.0% prior). 
• Wholesale Sales (Apr): +0.1% (vs. +0.8% prior). Stock/Sales ratio unchanged at 1.30 months. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices edged higher, with August futures gaining $8.30 (+0.25%) to settle at $3,354.90 per ounce. The rise was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar as market participants awaited developments from the U.S.-China trade talks. Crude oil prices extended last week’s gains, with WTI climbing $0.71 (+1.1%) to $65.29/bbl, also benefiting from renewed trade deal optimism which could bolster global demand. Bitcoin continued its recent rebound, rising over 2% to above $108,500. The U.S. dollar index slipped, continuing its recent weakness. Treasury yields declined ahead of key inflation data (CPI/PPI) later this week and a series of Treasury auctions. The 10-year yield fell over 3 basis points to around 4.474%.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.71	USD/bbl	65.29
Brent	0.57	USD/bbl	67.04
Gold	8.3	USD/oz	3354.9
EUR/USD	0.003	USD	1.1424
USD/JPY	-0.44	JPY	144.41
10-Year Note	-0.036	%	0.04474

Looking Ahead 

The market will remain intensely focused on any headlines emerging from the U.S.-China trade negotiations in London. Details from Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference throughout the week could also influence the tech sector. Key U.S. inflation data (CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday) will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations. Additionally, a series of Treasury auctions this week (3-year, 10-year, 30-year) will test investor demand for U.S. debt.