Closing Recap (Week Ending July 12) 

U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday, pushing the S&P 500 and Dow into negative territory for the week, as a fresh wave of tariff announcements from President Trump renewed trade anxieties and overshadowed a quiet economic data calendar. 

Key Takeaways 

• Markets Fall on Renewed Tariff Fears: Stocks slid late in the week after President Trump announced new tariffs, including a 35% levy on Canada and floated 15-20% blanket tariffs on most partners, all set for August 1st if no deals are reached. 
• Weekly Performance: The S&P 500 (-0.31%) and Dow (-1.02%) fell for the week, while the Nasdaq (-0.08%) was roughly flat. 
• Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: Bitcoin surged past $118,000, setting a new record high, driven by institutional demand and optimism around potential US crypto legislation. 
• Dollar Gains on Safe-Haven Flows: The US dollar strengthened against major peers like the euro and Canadian dollar as tariff concerns drove safe-haven demand, shifting its recent dynamic. 
• Treasury Yields Rise: Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels, with the 10-year yield jumping over 8bps on the week as tariff news spurred selling. 
• Gold and Oil Advance: Gold jumped on Friday and ended the week slightly higher on safe-haven buying. Oil also reversed to finish higher. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: The crucial US CPI data for June (date not specified, typically mid-week) will be paramount for Fed rate cut expectations, alongside the US PPI report. 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s attention will be squarely focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be a critical release, as investors and the Federal Reserve will be looking for any evidence of price pressures stemming from the implementation of tariffs. The ISM PMIs for June already pointed to accelerating prices in the manufacturing sector, and Fed officials have expressed differing views on whether the central bank should “look through” any one-time price level adjustments caused by trade policy. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	44371	-279.32	-0.0063	-0.0102
S&P 500	6259	-20.81	-0.0033	-0.0031
Nasdaq	20585	-45.14	-0.0022	-0.0008
Russell 2000	2234	-28.58	-0.0126	NA

A slowdown in inflation could revive bets for a July Fed rate cut, which have recently dwindled to just 5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales for June, along with the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July, will provide further crucial insights into the health of the US economy. 

Internationally, inflation data from the UK, Canada, and Japan will also be on the docket, influencing their respective central bank outlooks. The UK employment report will provide more information on whether its labor market is cooling. In Asia, Chinese trade and growth data (GDP) will be scrutinized for signs of economic strain amidst lingering trade uncertainty, potentially increasing calls for further stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. Finally, the Q2 earnings season will kick off, with major banks reporting, though the spotlight will likely fall on Netflix (NFLX) later in the week.

Market Overview

A week dominated by trade and tariff talk culminated in renewed anxiety for U.S. stocks, which finished lower on the day and, for the S&P 500 and Dow, for the week. The primary catalyst was a series of overnight social media posts and announcements from President Trump, who unveiled new tariff threats. These included a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting in August and floated the idea of 15-20% blanket tariffs on most trading partners, an increase from the current 10% base level. This news followed announcements earlier in the week of increased tariff levels for over 20 global trading partners, all set to begin on August 1st if new trade deals cannot be reached. 

This resurgence of trade friction has shifted the market’s response dynamic. While the U.S. dollar was previously punished on recession fears stemming from tariffs, it has recently benefited from safe-haven inflows as global trade anxiety rises. This has coincided with a paring back of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut bets following a strong June jobs report. In the digital asset space, Bitcoin had a stellar week, surging past $118,000 to set a new all-time high, reportedly driven by strong institutional demand and positive sentiment surrounding potential U.S. crypto legislation. On the day, drone makers rallied on news of eased regulations for US military drone manufacturing, while some FinTech names fell on a report of new fees from JPMorgan.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of July 14th) 

MON (Jul 15): 

• China Trade Balance (Jun): Key trade data from China. 

TUE (Jul 16): 

• China GDP (Q2), Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun): Crucial growth and activity data. Weakness could spur calls for more stimulus. 
• Canadian CPI (Jun): Inflation data for Canada; a strong acceleration may be needed to push a BoC rate cut into 2026. 
• US Earnings Season Begins: Major banks report. 

WED (Jul 17): 

• US PPI (Jun): Producer price inflation data. 
• UK CPI (Jun): UK inflation data; a notable slowdown could add to BoE rate cut bets for August. 
• Australian Employment Report (Jun): Labor market data for Australia. 

THU (Jul 18): 

• US Retail Sales (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims: Key US consumption and labor market data. 
• UK Employment Report (May): Labor market trends in the UK. 
• Japanese National CPI (Jun): Key inflation data for Japan. 
• Netflix (NFLX) Earnings: Highly anticipated report after recent record highs. 

FRI (Jul 19): 

• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul – Prelim.): Consumer mood and, importantly, 1-year inflation expectations. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

August gold prices jumped on Friday, gaining 1.13% to settle at $3,364/oz and finishing the week slightly higher. The move was driven by safe-haven demand as trade uncertainties resurfaced. Silver also saw a strong week, hitting its highest level since 2011. Oil prices reversed to end the week higher, with WTI crude gaining 2.82% on Friday to settle at $68.45/bbl.

WTI Crude	68.45	1.88	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	70.36	1.72	USD/bbl
Gold (Aug Fut.)	3364	38.3	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.169	-0.001	Rate
USD/JPY	147.38	1.13	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04424	0.00077	Yield (%)
Bitcoin (approx)	~116,865	+3.5	USD

The U.S. dollar edged higher, benefiting from its newfound safe-haven status amidst global trade jitters, with the Canadian dollar and Euro weakening against it. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is still down over 9% year-to-date. Bitcoin had a strong week, scaling another record high of $118,832 before paring some gains. Treasury yields ended the week at their highest levels, with the 10-year yield jumping over 8bps on the week to 4.427% as investors reacted to the tariff news.