Closing Recap (Week Ending September 12) 

U.S. stocks finished a quiet Friday with modest losses but secured another week of gains, holding near all-time highs as investors brace for a pivotal Federal Reserve policy meeting. In currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy and had a rough week, but ended mostly higher on Friday after weak consumer sentiment data, hitting its lowest levels since early August as EUR/USD rallied to a six-week high, GBP/USD holding steady, and USD/JPY remaining range-bound. Meanwhile, Gold gained for a fourth straight week, oil rose on geopolitical risk, and Bitcoin saw a notable rotation into altcoins. 

Key Takeaways 

• Stocks End Week Higher Ahead of Fed: Major indices gained for the week (S&P +1.59%, Nasdaq +2.03%), with the S&P 500 hitting a new intraday high of 6,600 on Friday before a slight pullback. 
• Currency Pairs Consolidate: The US Dollar was choppy; EUR/USD held near 1.1735 amid policy divergence, GBP/USD was steady around 1.3556, and USD/JPY was anchored near 147.50 by political uncertainty and joint FX statements. 
• Fed Rate Cut Highly Expected: Markets are pricing a 95% probability of a 25bps Federal Reserve rate cut next week, driven by recent soft labor market data. 
• Bitcoin Dominance Slips: Bitcoin consolidated above $115,000, but its market dominance fell to its lowest level since February, signaling a potential rotation of capital into altcoins. 
• Gold Rises for 4th Straight Week: Gold prices continued their climb as markets anticipate the start of a Fed easing cycle. Silver hit a 14-year high. 
• Oil Gains on Geopolitical Risk: Crude oil prices rose after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loadings, highlighting supply risks. 
• Week Ahead Focus – Key Risk Events: A monumental week of central bank decisions is ahead, with the FOMC (Wed), BoE (Thu), and BoJ (Fri) all meeting. Key inflation data from the UK and Canada will also be crucial.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the market is bracing for a monumental week of central bank decisions. The main event is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, concluding with a policy statement, updated economic projections (including the ‘dot plot’), and Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in, the market will be intensely focused on the dot plot for signals on the future path of interest rates and Powell’s tone regarding the economy. 

This will be followed by the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday, both of which could introduce significant volatility in currency markets. Other key data points include US Retail Sales for August (Tuesday) and the UK CPI inflation data (Wednesday) which is a key, potentially hawkish, input for the BoE. With a heavy week of central bank risk ahead, and a quadruple witching options expiration on Friday, investors should be prepared for potential for significant volatility across all asset classes, from equities and bonds to currencies and crypto.

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets did a lot of nothing on Friday, trading in a tight range as investors positioned themselves ahead of next week’s crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting. Despite the quiet end, it was another positive week for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 touching the 6,600 level for the first time before a minor pullback, and the Nasdaq edging higher driven by strength in mega-cap tech stocks like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple. The market continues to operate in what many describe as “strange times,” with stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all near all-time highs, and inflation well above the Fed’s target, yet a rate cut is almost fully priced in. This expectation is underpinned by recent soft labor market data, including a massive downward revision to jobs numbers over the past year, which points to cooling economic momentum. 

Index	Last Closing Level	Friday’s Change	Friday’s Change (%)	Weekly Change (%)
DJ Industrials	45834	-273.78	-0.0059	0.0095
S&P 500	6584	-3.18	-0.0005	0.0159
Nasdaq	22141	98.03	0.0044	0.0203
Russell 2000	2397	-24.47	-0.0101	5.8

The IPO market remained a hot topic, with several high-profile debuts this week, including crypto exchange Gemini (GEMI) and “buy-now-pay-later” firm Klarna (KLAR). In the digital asset space, Bitcoin has surged roughly 4% over the past two weeks to trade above $115,000. However, the more significant story was the decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance to its lowest level since February, a technical signal that often precedes a rotation of capital into higher-volatility altcoins.

Economic Data Calendar (Week of September 15th) 

MON (Sep 16): 

• Chinese Activity Data (Aug – Industrial Production, Retail Sales): Retail Sales exp. 3.8% Y/Y, IP exp. 5.8% Y/Y. Watched for signs of stabilization or further slowdown. 

TUE (Sep 17): 

• US Retail Sales (Aug): Headline exp. +0.3% M/M, ex-autos exp. +0.3% M/M. Key gauge of consumer spending. 
• Canadian CPI (Aug): Important inflation data for the BoC outlook. 
• UK Jobs Report (Jul): Unemployment rate exp. steady at 4.7%; wage growth will be a key focus for the BoE. 
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep): Investor confidence for Germany. 

WED (Sep 18): 

• FOMC Rate Decision, Statement, Economic Projections (Dot Plot) & Press Conference: 25bps rate cut is fully expected (70bps total priced for 2025). Focus on dot plot for 2025/2026 outlook and Powell’s press conference. 
• Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates by 25bps; another cut expected by year-end. 
• UK CPI (Aug): Headline exp. 3.9% Y/Y, Core exp. 3.7% Y/Y. A key, potentially hawkish, input for the BoE. 
• New Zealand GDP (Q2): Expected to show a contraction (-0.4% Q/Q) due to seasonality. 

THU (Sep 19): 

• Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Summary: Expected to hold rates at 4% via a 7-2 vote. Next cut not fully priced until early 2026. Focus on QT announcement. 
• Norges Bank & SARB Rate Decisions: Central bank meetings in Norway and South Africa. US Housing Starts, Building Permits (Aug) & Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Index (Sep): Housing and regional activity data. 

FRI (Sep 20):

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Decision & Press Conference: Expected to hold rates at 0.50%, but recent hawkish source reports have raised speculation about a potential surprise hike this year. 
• Japanese National CPI (Aug): Released hours before BoJ decision; core inflation expected above 3%. 
• UK Retail Sales (Aug): Headline exp. +0.3% M/M. 
• Quadruple Witching: Simultaneous expiration of stock options and futures, can increase volatility.

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

December gold prices gained on Friday, settling at $3,686.40/oz and marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain as markets position for the start of a Fed easing cycle. Silver also surged to 14-year highs. Crude oil prices rose, with WTI settling at $62.69/bbl, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port raised supply concerns. In the currency markets, the US Dollar was choppy but weakened for the week.

Asset	Last Level	Friday’s Change	Unit / % Change
WTI Crude	62.69	0.32	USD/bbl
Brent Crude	66.99	0.62	USD/bbl
Gold (Dec Fut.)	3686.4	12.8	USD/oz
EUR/USD	1.174	0.0007	Rate
USD/JPY	147.47	0.27	Rate
10-Year Note Yield	0.04058	0.00048	Yield (%)
Bitcoin	116,106	0.49	USD

It was a rough week for the U.S. Dollar, which fell to its lowest levels since early August. The weakness was driven by a perceived dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve, softer-than-expected economic data, and waning safe-haven demand. This was reflected across major currency pairs:

The EUR/USD pair held near 1.1735, supported by a hawkish ECB stance versus a dovish Fed, though the pair’s rally looks stretched. The GBP/USD held steady near 1.3556, showing resilience as traders weigh divergent BoE and Fed outlooks. The USD/JPY pair was anchored near 147.50, caught between political uncertainty in Japan and shifting US monetary policy expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, with the 10-year yield up 5bps to 4.058% as the curve steepened slightly ahead of the Fed meeting.