Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures point firmly higher, extending last week’s powerful rally amid confusing signals on tariff exemptions for electronics; the dollar weakened further and Treasury yields dipped overnight. 

Key Takeaways 

• Strong Futures Rally: Equities indicate a positive open, building on last week’s significant gains, with technology leading. 
• Tariff Confusion Lingers: Mixed messages from the White House regarding tariff exemptions for electronics (smartphones, etc.) create uncertainty despite the rally. Trump denies exemptions, reframes them under existing levies. 
• Builds on Last Week’s Gains: Current strength follows a massive rally last week, reportedly triggered by hopes of a (now potentially dubious) 90-day tariff delay. 
• Dollar Weakness Continues: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades below 100, adding to recent declines. 
• Yields Dip Today: Treasury yields are lower overnight/pre-market after spiking significantly late last week. 
• Global Markets Positive: Asian and European stock markets are showing strong gains today. 
• Focus on Fed Speakers: Comments from Fed officials Harker and Bostic later today are awaited for policy clues. 
• Earnings Season Starts: Attention turns to Q1 earnings, with major banks reporting later this week. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are poised for a strong start to the week, with futures indicating broad gains, particularly in the technology sector (buoyed by names like AAPL). This momentum extends the powerful, albeit volatile, rally witnessed last week, which saw major indices recoup a substantial portion of their steep tariff-induced losses. That rally was largely attributed to hopes ignited by reports (accurate or not) of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation announced by President Trump mid-week. Further support came late Friday from comments by Boston Fed President Collins affirming the Fed’s readiness to stabilize markets if needed. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	354	0.0088	40753
S&P 500	68	0.0126	5459
Nasdaq	276.5	0.0147	19084

However, significant uncertainty persists, primarily centered around the specifics of tariff application. Over the weekend, President Trump pushed back against interpretations that certain electronics received a tariff “exception,” stating on Truth Social that these items remain subject to existing 20% “Fentanyl Tariffs” and were merely moved to a different category. He also signaled potential future investigations into the entire electronics supply chain, including semiconductors, emphasizing that no country is “off the hook.” Commerce Secretary Lutnick added to the ambiguity, suggesting Friday’s announced exemptions might only be temporary. This conflicting messaging leaves investors grappling with the true state of trade policy despite the market’s upward trajectory. 

Globally, sentiment appears positive this morning, with strong gains seen across Asian and European markets. The U.S. dollar continues its recent weakening trend, trading below the 100 level on the DXY. Treasury yields have dipped overnight, offering some respite after a wild ride last week that saw the 10-year yield surge dramatically off its lows before settling higher, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and debt despite the market turmoil.

Economic Calendar

Today’s domestic economic calendar is light on data releases, shifting focus to Federal Reserve commentary later in the day and earnings reports. Today’s Calendar: 

• 6:00 PM EST: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Role of Fed 
• 7:40 PM EST: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Policy

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries

Crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning, recovering slightly from recent plunges driven by recession fears. Gold prices edged lower in early trading after significant gains last week; its direction remains sensitive to trade rhetoric, Fed commentary, and overall risk sentiment, with key technical levels around $3,262 (resistance) and $3,192 (support). The U.S. dollar extended its recent sharp decline, with the DXY below 100 and the Euro pushing higher (EUR/USD testing resistance near 1.1492). The dollar’s weakness comes despite a slight recovery against the Yen (USD/JPY higher per Macro table). Fed speakers later today could inject volatility into currency pairs. Treasury yields are lower in early trading, with the 10-year yield around 4.435%, pulling back after spiking late last week. The bond market remains volatile, balancing safe-haven flows against inflation/debt concerns and Fed policy expectations.

Assets	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	0.5	USD/bbl	62
Brent	0.49	USD/bbl	65.25
Gold	-19.3	USD/oz	3225.3
EUR/USD	0.0024	USD	1.1384
USD/JPY	-0.3	JPY	143.21
10-Year Note	-0.058	%	0.04435

Looking Ahead 

The market remains highly sensitive to any clarification or further developments regarding U.S. trade policy and tariffs – this is the primary driver. Comments from Fed speakers Harker and Bostic later today will be watched for insights into monetary policy amidst the recent turmoil and conflicting economic signals. Attention will increasingly turn to Q1 earnings season, which kicks off in earnest this week with major banks reporting on Friday, providing crucial insights into corporate health and outlooks. Key inflation data (CPI/PPI) later this week also remains a critical focus.