Closing Recap 

U.S. stock futures point to a lower open as investors digest new tariff threats from President Trump against Mexico and the EU, pulling back from last week’s record highs; oil, gold, and Bitcoin are climbing amid the renewed uncertainty, while the dollar and Treasury yields are little changed ahead of key U.S. inflation data this week. 

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Slip on New Tariff Threats: Equities indicate a negative start to the week after President Trump threatened new 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU if trade deals aren’t reached by August 1st. 
• Pullback After Quiet Week: The weakness follows a relatively quiet week where major indices like the S&P 500 posted minor losses, pulling back slightly from all-time highs. 
• EU Suspends Retaliatory Tariffs: In a positive sign, the EU announced it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, hoping to reach a deal by month’s end. 
• Focus on U.S. CPI Data: Market attention turns to key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for June, due tomorrow (Tuesday), which could influence Fed policy expectations. 
• Oil, Gold & Bitcoin Rally: Crude oil prices are up over 1%, gold is gaining, and Bitcoin has surged to another new record high above $122,000 amid the trade uncertainty. 
• Global Markets Mixed: Asian markets were mixed overnight, while European markets are trading lower. 
• Quiet Day for Data/Earnings: The economic and earnings calendars are very light today, keeping the focus on trade headlines and positioning ahead of CPI. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are set to begin the week on a cautious note, with futures pointing to a lower open following fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump over the weekend. A day after markets closed with minor losses for the week, Trump announced he could impose new 30% tariffs on imports from both Mexico and the European Union if new trade agreements are not finalized by the August 1st deadline. This has reignited trade war concerns that had been simmering, putting pressure on risk assets this morning. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	-125	-0.0028	44475
S&P 500	-19.25	-0.003	6281
Nasdaq	-74.5	-0.0032	22884

This new threat comes after a period of relative calm that saw U.S. stocks rally impressively off their April lows to reach record highs. Last week was a period of consolidation, with the S&P 500 pulling back slightly from its all-time high hit the prior Thursday. In a potentially constructive development, the European Union announced it will suspend its own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in an effort to foster negotiations and reach a deal before the end of the month. 

Global markets are showing a mixed reaction this morning. Asian indices were varied overnight, while European bourses are trading lower. The market’s focus now shifts squarely to crucial U.S. inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on Tuesday. This data will be critical for shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy, especially following a four-month trend of moderating inflation. In the meantime, commodity markets are reacting to the renewed uncertainty, with oil, gold, and Bitcoin all trading higher.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar is very light, with the focus remaining on trade and positioning ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report. 

• 2:00 PM ET: Federal Budget for June
• Monitoring trade negotiations with Mexico and the EU. 
• Fed speakers enter blackout period Saturday ahead of July 30th meeting.
• China Trade Balance (June – Reported Overnight): + 114.77 B ( v s . + 114.77B(vs.+ 109B consensus). Exports +5.8% y/y (vs. +5.0% consensus). Imports +1.1% y/y (vs. +1.3% consensus). 
• Japan Machinery Orders (May – Reported Overnight): -0.6% m/m (vs. -1.5% consensus).

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices are rallying, with WTI up over 1% to above $69.50/bbl, as renewed tariff threats and geopolitical uncertainty stoke supply concerns. Gold prices are also higher, with spot gold climbing about $17.70 to $3,381.70 per ounce, benefiting from safe-haven demand. Bitcoin continues its surge, hitting another new record high above $122,000. The U.S. dollar index is little changed in early trading, holding steady as investors weigh the tariff threats against potential impacts on Fed policy. U.S. Treasury yields are also relatively flat, with the 10-year yield near 4.423%, as the market awaits fresh inflation data.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	1.06	USD/bbl	69.51
Brent	1.02	USD/bbl	71.38
Gold	17.7	USD/oz	3381.7
EUR/USD	0	USD	1.1689
USD/JPY	-0.15	JPY	147.25
10-Year Note	0	%	0.04423

Looking Ahead 

The market will be highly sensitive to any further developments or clarifications regarding the threatened tariffs on Mexico and the EU. The primary focus for investors will be tomorrow’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be a critical input for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Any significant deviation from expectations could lead to substantial market volatility. Q2 earnings season will also begin to ramp up, providing company-level insights into the current economic and trade environment.