Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher after a choppy session, with small caps leading the way, as markets digested evolving trade headlines ahead of key U.S. inflation data tomorrow; oil prices fell sharply on new tariff threats, while gold eased and the dollar firmed. 

Key Takeaways 

• Choppy Session, Positive Close: Equities overcame modest overnight weakness to finish mostly in the green, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting small gains and small caps outperforming. 
• Trade Headlines Drive Volatility: Markets reacted to various trade developments, including President Trump’s willingness to continue negotiations, and new tariff threats against Russia. 
• Sentiment Remains “Extreme Greed”: The Fear & Greed Index is elevated at 76, reflecting the recent strong rally, even as some underlying caution persists among analysts. 
• Rotation into Small Caps & Cyclicals: Small caps outperformed large caps, and cyclical sectors like Communications and Financials led, while Technology and Energy lagged. 
• Oil Plunges on New Sanction Threats: Crude oil prices reversed early gains to finish sharply lower after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. 
• Gold Eases, Dollar Firms: Gold prices slipped as immediate safe-haven demand faded on positive trade talk signals, while the U.S. dollar rose to a near three-week high. 
• Focus on CPI & Earnings: All eyes now turn to tomorrow’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the ramp-up of Q2 earnings season. 

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets navigated a day of shifting headlines to close mostly higher, demonstrating resilience in a quiet summer trading session. After slipping modestly overnight, stocks found their footing mid-morning as President Trump signaled a willingness to continue tariff negotiations, which helped offset some of the uncertainty from the weekend’s new tariff threats. The tape moved in a sideways-to-higher fashion for much of the day, with small caps (Russell 2000) showing notable outperformance, a positive sign for market breadth. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	88.14	0.002	44459
S&P 500	8.81	0.0014	6268
Nasdaq	54.8	0.0027	20640
Russell 2000	14.9	0.0067	2249

Oil prices reversed early gains to fall over 2% after President Trump threatened potential secondary sanctions on Russia, which could impact major buyers like India and China, creating new demand uncertainties. Investor sentiment remains elevated, with the Fear & Greed Index registering “Extreme Greed,” though sell-side analyst ratings continue to show some caution. 

Wall Street firms like RBC are raising their S&P 500 targets, citing improved sentiment, while others like Goldman Sachs highlight interesting positioning data, such as hedge funds recently selling banks and buying staples. With no major economic data released today, investors are now squarely focused on tomorrow’s crucial U.S. CPI report and the start of the main Q2 earnings season.

Economic Calendar

No major U.S. economic data releases were scheduled for yesterday. The market is positioned ahead of today’s key inflation report.

• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices settled slightly lower, with August futures down $4.90 (-0.15%) at $3,359.10 per ounce. After hitting a three-week high intraday, the metal faded as positive trade commentary eased some of the immediate demand for safe havens. Crude oil prices experienced a sharp reversal, with WTI settling down $1.47 (-2.15%) at $66.98/bbl. Early gains on trade optimism were erased and then some, following President Trump’s comments about potential secondary sanctions on Russia, which created fresh demand uncertainty.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-1.47	USD/bbl	66.98
Brent	-1.15	USD/bbl	69.21
Gold	-4.9	USD/oz	3359.1
EUR/USD	-0.0024	USD	1.1665
USD/JPY	0.34	JPY	147.74
10-Year Note	0.004	%	0.04427

Treasury yields were mixed and little changed from Friday’s close, with the 10-year yield holding around 4.427% as the market braces for tomorrow’s CPI data. The U.S. dollar firmed, rising to a near three-week high against a basket of currencies.

Looking Ahead 

The market’s main focus will be tomorrow morning’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June. The data will be critical for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, particularly the timing and likelihood of future rate cuts. Q2 earnings season also begins to ramp up, which will provide crucial insights into corporate health and guidance in the face of ongoing trade uncertainties. Any further developments or clarifications on the various trade fronts (China, Russia, EU, Mexico) will also remain a key potential market driver.