Closing Recap 

U.S. stocks finished mostly lower after erasing early gains in relatively subdued trading compared to recent weeks; the dollar bounced, Treasury yields eased, gold climbed modestly, and oil prices slipped. 

Key Takeaways 

• Faded Gains, Mixed Close: Major averages gave back initial advances to finish little changed to slightly lower, showing less volatility than recent tariff-driven sessions. 
• Volatility Eases: Trading was calmer, with the VIX falling, although underlying tariff uncertainty persists.
• Focus Shifts to Earnings: With tariff headlines quieter, attention turns to Q1 earnings season, with transport results due tonight and big banks later this week. 
• Tariff Headlines Linger: Canada provided temporary relief on some counter-tariffs; EU/US talks showed little progress; WH exploring ~15 potential trade deals. 
• Bearish Sentiment Remains High: BofA Fund Manager Survey showed extreme bearishness and high recession expectations, despite calmer markets today.
• Empire State Outlook Plunges: While the headline Empire State index beat estimates, the forward-looking component hit its lowest since 2001 due to tariff concerns. 
• Gold Up, Oil Down: Gold prices edged higher on continued safe-haven interest, while oil slipped after an IEA demand forecast cut. 
• Dollar Bounces, Yields Fall: The U.S. dollar rebounded from recent lows, while Treasury yields declined. 

Market Overview 

After weeks of extreme volatility driven by tariff headlines, U.S. stock markets experienced a relatively calmer session today, though not without intraday swings. Major averages opened higher, building on the positive momentum from recent tariff exemption news, but these gains faded by late morning, leading to a mixed-to-lower close. The S&P 500 spent much of the day holding above the 5,400 level. The reduced intraday volatility, compared to the wild swings seen recently, suggested a temporary pause in the tariff-driven panic, allowing investors to shift focus. With the immediate tariff escalation seemingly on hold (though uncertainty remains high), attention is turning back towards corporate fundamentals, particularly the Q1 earnings season kicking off this week. Transport sector earnings are due tonight (UAL, JBHT), followed by major banks later in the week. 

Index	Up/Down	% Change	Last
DJ Industrials	-155.83	-0.0038	40368
S&P 500	-9.34	-0.0017	5396
Nasdaq	-8.32	-0.0005	16823
Russell 2000	2.04	0.0011	1882

However, the trade narrative continues to bubble beneath the surface. Canada announced temporary relief from counter-tariffs on certain manufacturing inputs, while reports indicated little progress in resolving EU-U.S. trade disputes, with U.S. officials signaling most tariffs will remain. The White House also indicated it is exploring around 15 potential trade deals. Despite the calmer price action, underlying sentiment remains deeply pessimistic. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey revealed extreme bearishness, high recession expectations, and intentions to cut exposure to U.S. stocks. This survey suggests that while markets may pause, significant hurdles (major tariff easing, Fed cuts, economic resilience) are needed for a sustainable rally. Today’s Empire State manufacturing survey underscored these concerns; while the headline number improved, the outlook component plunged to a multi-decade low, explicitly citing tariff impacts.

Economic Data

The economic data showed a mixed picture, with a better-than-expected regional manufacturing headline offset by a plunge in its outlook component and benign import price inflation. 

• Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): Came in at -8.1, significantly better than the -13.5 estimate and improvement from -20.0 in March. However, the forward-looking business conditions index plummeted to its lowest level since 2001 due to tariff concerns. 
• Import/Export Prices (Mar): Import prices fell -0.1% m/m (vs. 0.0% consensus), while export prices were unchanged (matching consensus). Year-over-year, import prices were up +0.9% and export prices +2.4%. Non-petroleum import prices were flat month-over-month. 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Gold prices edged higher, gaining 0.43% to settle at $3,240.40 per ounce. The metal continues to attract safe-haven bids as investors remain wary about trade policy and its economic impact, despite the relatively calmer market session. Gold is up over 23% year-to-date. Crude oil prices finished slightly lower, with WTI settling down $0.20 at $61.33/bbl. Pressure came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) cutting its 2025 demand growth forecast significantly due to economic headwinds, offsetting potential support from suggestions of U.S. tariff exemptions. The U.S. dollar index rebounded from recent multi-year lows seen last week, strengthening against the Euro and slightly against the Yen. Treasury yields continued their decline from last week’s highs, with the 10-year yield falling about 4.5 basis points to 4.319%, while shorter-term yields were little changed. Bitcoin prices eased lower in a risk-off move late day.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.2	USD/bbl	61.33
Brent	-0.21	USD/bbl	64.67
Gold	14.1	USD/oz	3240.4
EUR/USD	-0.0077	USD	1.1272
USD/JPY	0.19	JPY	143.17
10-Year Note	-0.045	%	0.04319

Looking Ahead 

The market will continue to monitor trade headlines, particularly any developments regarding EU/US talks or potential new deals mentioned by the White House. The focus now shifts more squarely to Q1 earnings results, with reports from UAL and JBHT tonight providing insights into the transport sector, followed by major banks later in the week. Upcoming economic data, including PPI tomorrow, will also be scrutinized for inflation trends and economic health. While volatility has eased somewhat, the underlying bearish sentiment highlighted by the BofA survey suggests the market remains vulnerable to negative catalysts.