Closing Recap

U.S. stock futures are rebounding from last week’s sharp losses as investors “buy the dip” despite ongoing Israel-Iran tensions and mixed China data; oil prices have pared overnight spikes, gold is easing, and safe-haven currencies are slipping.

Key Takeaways 

• Futures Bounce After Friday’s Sell-off: Equities indicate a positive open (S&P futures +0.4%), showing resilience after Friday’s steep decline triggered by escalating Middle East tensions. 
• Israel-Iran Conflict Continues: Attacks between Israel and Iran extended into a fourth day over the weekend, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty, though President Trump expressed hope for an eventual deal. 
• Oil & Gold Pare Overnight Gains: WTI crude, after spiking as much as 5.5% overnight, has pulled back significantly. Gold is also down from its highs as immediate panic subsides. 
• EU Tariff Offer Reported: Reports suggest the EU is prepared to accept a flat 10% U.S. tariff with conditions to de-escalate trade tensions. 
• China Data Mixed: China’s May retail sales beat expectations (+6.4% y/y), but industrial output slowed (+5.8% y/y), presenting a mixed picture for the world’s second-largest economy. 
• Global Markets Mostly Higher: Asian markets (Nikkei +1.2%) and European markets are showing gains, supported by the improved sentiment. 
• Focus on NY Empire State Mfg & Treasury Auction: Today’s U.S. economic calendar features the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a 20-year Treasury note auction. 

Market Overview 

U.S. equity markets are poised for a positive start to the week, with futures indicating a notable rebound from the sharp losses experienced on Friday. Last week’s downturn was primarily driven by an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, which stoked fears of broader regional instability and sent investors fleeing to safety. While attacks between the two nations reportedly continued for a fourth day over the weekend, President Trump offered a glimmer of hope on Sunday, suggesting an eventual agreement to end the conflict is possible, though perhaps after further fighting. 

Index (Futures)	Up/Down	% Change	Last
Dow	157	0.0037	42680
S&P 500	25.25	0.0042	6056
Nasdaq	111.5	0.0051	21972

This slightly more optimistic tone, coupled with reports that the European Union is prepared to accept a flat 10% U.S. tariff (with conditions) to avert higher duties, appears to be encouraging dip-buyers back into the market. Crude oil, which had spiked dramatically overnight on the Middle East tensions, has pared a significant portion of those gains. Similarly, safe-haven assets like gold and defensive currencies are also retreating from their earlier highs.

Economic data from China overnight presented a mixed picture. While May retail sales surged more than expected, reflecting strong consumer demand, industrial production growth slowed, indicating ongoing pressures likely linked to U.S. tariffs. Global markets are mostly higher this morning, with Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei posting solid gains, and European bourses also in positive territory. Investors will be watching today’s U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for a read on regional factory activity and a 20-year Treasury auction later in the day.

Economic Calendar

Today’s U.S. economic calendar features the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a Treasury auction. 

• 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 PM GMT: Empire State Manufacturing Index for June 
• 1:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM GMT: U.S. Treasury to sell $16B in 20-year notes 
• Paris International Air Show 2025 
• China Economic Data (May – Reported Overnight): Retail Sales: +6.4% y/y (Beat 5.0% est., vs. +5.1% prior). Strongest since Dec 2023. 
• Industrial Output: +5.8% y/y (Missed 5.9% est., vs. +6.1% prior). Slowest since Nov 2024. 
• Switzerland Producer Prices (Apr – from earlier report context): +0.1% m/m (Missed 0.2% est.). 

Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries 

Crude oil prices have pulled back significantly from overnight highs, with WTI now trading down around $0.37 (-0.5%) at $72.61/bbl. Brent is also down. This comes after WTI spiked as high as $77.49 overnight on escalating Israel-Iran tensions. Gold prices have also eased from earlier gains, down about $20.80 (-0.5%) to $3,432.00 per ounce, as the initial flight to safety moderates. The U.S. dollar is mixed, showing slight weakness against the Euro but little changed against the Yen. U.S. Treasury yields are modestly higher, with the 10-year yield up about 0.6 basis points to 4.43%, reflecting a slight reduction in extreme risk aversion.

Asset	Up/Down	Unit / % Change	Last
WTI Crude	-0.37	USD/bbl	72.61
Brent	-0.42	USD/bbl	73.81
Gold	-20.8	USD/oz	3432
EUR/USD	0.0021	USD	1.1573
USD/JPY	0.04	JPY	144.13
10-Year Note	0.006	%	0.0443

Looking Ahead 

Market sentiment today will be heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East and any further commentary regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. The Empire State Manufacturing Index will provide an early read on U.S. factory activity in June. Investors will also monitor the 20-year Treasury auction for demand signals. While trade news regarding the EU tariff offer is a positive background factor, the immediate geopolitical risks are likely to dominate near-term trading. Any shifts in oil prices will also be a key indicator of market anxiety.